Cincinnati, Ohio 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

157
FXUS61 KILN 050540
AFDILN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
140 AM EDT Tue Aug 5 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
An upper trough will very slowly meander eastward as it shows a
significant weakening trend through Wednesday. A large center of
surface high pressure northeast of the Great Lakes will slowly move
to New England by Wednesday, keeping a drying east wind over the
region through this time. A generally dry forecast is in store for
the region after any lingering storms die out this evening.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
H5 trough along the MS River will move just slightly further east
during the day and experience a notable weakening. A w-e inverted sfc
trough located along the southern CWA will nose slightly further
north to about the OH River by late day. East wind will continue to
bring in dry air, though some increased humidity is noted above the
sfc this afternoon. The approaching upper trough, weak surface
boundary, and elevated moisture in the lower levels will combine to
bring an increased threat for thunderstorm activity this afternoon.
This will be most prominent sw of Cincy, with chance pops limited to
w and s of Dayton, and eastward through much of nrn KY, dropping off
slightly east of Maysville.

Adjusted pops upward in sw 1/4 of CWA to come in line with
neighboring offices and trend wetter, as the NBM was showing scant
precip in this area today.

Highs will be in the lower 80s with a continued relatively dry
airmass and pleasant humidity.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
Convection that may still be present in the early evening over sw CWA
will quickly fizzle and remain dry for the overnight hours. Partly
cloudy skies will see clearing over a good bit of the CWA in the
early morning. Wednesday should be mostly sunny with some fair wx cu
in the afternoon. Less cloud cover through this period will be found
in central Ohio where the drier air wins out.

The axis of the severely weakened upper low should be located in
eastern CWA by Wednesday evening. It is not expected to have much
energy to work with and be unable to produce any diurnally induced
rainfall given a relatively dry airmass and little forcing.

Morning lows will be in the mid 60s with daytime highs only a degree
or so more than what will be seen today - low 80s, near 85 for
portions of KY and from Columbus southward along the Scioto Valley.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Mid and upper level ridge will build into the Ohio Valley and Great
Lakes region through the period. This will lead to a gradual warming
trend with a return to slightly above normal temperatures. Highs by
the weekend will be in the mid to upper 80s. As moisture gradually
increases through the period, it will be tough to rule out a few
diurnally enhanced showers or thunderstorms, especially as we get
into the weekend and early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Light <8kt east wind and vfr conditions will be the expected weather
for a while. Mid level 8-10kft cloud cover is forming over CVG/LUK
and expanding newd at this time. The bulk of these clouds will remain
sw of KILN for much of the overnight and begin to break up after
daybreak. Lower cu is expected to develop this afternoon area-wide.
Short-lived scattered thunderstorm activity has a higher chance of
occurrence at KCVG/KLUK towards 20Z, but only enough to keep in a
prob30 grouping. These showers could stretch ne/nwd to tickle DAY and
ILN, but the majority of models have these areas dry for today. Would
expect amendments if any development begins to hold together and
overcomes the continuous weak advection of dry lower level air.

The cu could linger through the evening in some areas, and more AS is
being indicated for the latter overnight period.

OUTLOOK...No significant weather expected.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Franks
NEAR TERM...Franks
SHORT TERM...Franks
LONG TERM...JGL
AVIATION...Franks