Akron, Ohio 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

500
FXUS61 KCLE 130209
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
1009 PM EDT Thu Jun 12 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will move south through the area today and stall
across northern Ohio Friday night into the weekend, lingering
into Sunday. Weak high pressure may briefly build south across
the Great Lakes by early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
9:30 PM Update...

PoPs and temps look okay for overnight. Virga is developing
aloft in response to warm/moist advection and isentropic ascent
as the closed low/vort max lifts out of the Mid Mississippi
Valley and interacts with the quasi-stationary front. Dry low-
levels should keep everyone dry overnight. Uncertainty increases
for Friday in terms of timing showers and thunderstorms. The
HREF members are in poor agreement in timing the shower/storm
development from south to north, mainly due to overall weak
forcing other than the boundary, moisture advection, and diurnal
heating. Given the uncertainty, see no reason to change
Friday`s PoPs at this time, but coverage may end up needing to
increase earlier in the day

6:30 PM Update...

The forecast remains on track for this evening with no changes
needed. The weak cold frontal boundary continues to sag
southward and is showing up clearly on regional radar mosaics as
a thin line of light returns from about southern Mahoning to
northern Marion Counties. Latest mesoanalysis shows only
500-1000 joules of MLCAPE along with quite a bit of CIN along
the boundary, so chances for any pop up convection are
dwindling. Will need to wait for the deeper moisture from the
Mid Mississippi Valley to start to arrive late tonight and
Friday, otherwise, dry conditions should prevail.

Original Discussion...

Awaiting a more consistent push of low/mid level moisture into the
region to accompany the cold front pushing southward through
northern Ohio. It will eventually become stationary just south of
the CWA later this evening into tonight before gradually drifting
back northward into Friday. Meanwhile, a 700mb trough axis works
into the region tonight from the southwest into early Friday, and
this will become the trigger for isolated to scattered showers
forming generally after 12Z. The stationary front, back into the
CWA, will become more of a focus for convergence and convective
initiation with hints of f-gen increasing after 18Z Friday. Another
couple of rounds of PVA aloft ripple through late Friday into Friday
night. The overall messaging for the sensible weather is POPs on the
increase through Friday, coming through in waves into Friday night
as the pattern becomes decidedly unsettled as we head into the
weekend. Temperatures for Friday will continue to be on the cooler
side with primarily 70s north of the boundary and lakeshore zones
exposed to onshore winds. Further south, lower 80s are still in play
despite the cloudier/wetter conditions.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A quasi-zonal pattern aloft will prevail over the region this
weekend with the potential for multiple short wave troughs to advect
east along it. The first shortwave centered over the Missouri Valley
will push east across the Ohio River Valley late Saturday into
Sunday. Energy ahead of this shortwave, along with a nearly
stationary boundary lingering across Ohio, will prolong the
potential for showers and thunderstorms through the entire short
term period. The potential for stronger storms with heavy rain will
be dependent on the position of the aforementioned boundary, with
the best instability south of the boundary. As a result, opted to
keep highest chance of PoPs and storms to areas along and south of
US-30. On Saturday night, models suggest an associated weak surface
low moving across southern Ohio, allowing for a brief period where
the boundary shifts south and diminishes rain chances that night.
However, by Sunday the boundary ebbs back north and chances of
precipitation once again increase.

Primary concern this weekend is how much rainfall the area will
actually see and the consequential flooding that may occur. Current
modeled soundings suggest a warm cloud layer climbing to near 12kft
with PWAT values between 1.75-2 inches, which is nearly 90% over the
climatological normal. In addition, parallel flow to the boundary at
times may lead to training convection in areas. The only component
which would aid in enhancing the heavy rainfall potential is a
notable LLJ. The updated forecast has a total QPF of 0.7-1" across
southern counties, with northern counties receiving notably less
with 0.3-0.5 inches. Given the prolonged rainfall, possible flooding
is possible in low lying areas, along rivers and creeks, and in
urban areas. To highlight the concern, WPC maintains a Day 3
Marginal ERO across the entire area.

Saturday highs will be cool, only climbing into the low to upper
70s. Sunday will warm a bit with highs climbing into the upper 70s
to low 80s in most areas. Overnight lows will remain mild in the
60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Long range guidance continues to favor a quasi-zonal flow over the
Great Lakes region with the potential for additional shortwaves to
advect east along it. These shortwaves will likely present
additional chances for showers, although the timing of the
shortwaves diverges so confidence is low as to when the best chance
of showers will be. Opted to keep chance PoPs for much of Monday
through Wednesday. By Wednesday night, it looks like a weak upper
level trough will move across the area with associated boundaries
at the surface, likely increasing PoPs late Wednesday into Thursday.
Still opted to cap potential at slights, but will continue to
monitor model guidance and overall trends in the days to come.

Highs through the period should gradually warm from the upper 70s to
low 80s on Monday into the low to mid 80s on Thursday. Overnight
lows look to remain mild in the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z Friday THROUGH Tuesday/...
VFR will prevail through the TAF cycle as a weak cold front
that is currently approaching the US 30 corridor becomes quasi-
stationary across the region. Moisture increasing from the Mid
Mississippi Valley will eventually bring scattered showers and
perhaps a few thunderstorms as it interacts with the front
Friday, with the best chances being in the mid to late
afternoon south of the lakeshore, but expect cigs and
visibilities to primarily stay VFR outside of any locally
heavier downpours. Put VCSH wording in the TAFs for now since
forcing will be minimal other than the boundary, daytime
heating, and increasing moisture, but there could be a more
defined period of greater coverage in future updates.

Winds will generally be N to NE at 5-10 knots tonight and
Friday, but the frontal boundary wavering back and forth
slightly could bring S to SE winds for a few hours Friday in
southern areas near KMFD, KCAK, and KYNG.

Outlook...Non-VFR possible in scattered showers and
thunderstorms Friday night, becoming more likely on Saturday in
widespread showers and thunderstorms, lingering through Sunday.
Non-VFR possible again in scattered showers and thunderstorms
on Monday afternoon and evening.

&&

.MARINE...
A weak cold front has shift just south of the lakeshore this
afternoon, allowing for northeast winds of 5-10 knots to develop
across Lake Erie. Locally higher winds up to 15 knots will be
possible across the western basin, but waves should remain 1-3 feet.
This boundary becomes nearly stationary as it tries to push south on
Friday. Increased gradient will increase winds to 10-15 knots,
possible up to 20 knots at times from the northeast. Highest waves
should remain in the open waters, but 2 to up to 4 feet are possible
across the western and parts of the central basin on Friday. Will
continue to monitor wind trends in the upcoming model updates, but
for now not planning to issue a Small Craft given the extremely
marginal conditions. Northeast winds will persist into early next
week, although weakening to 5-10 knots as the aforementioned
boundary shifts a bit closer to southern Ohio. Winds will possibly
gain a south-southwest component at 5-10 knots by Tuesday of next
week as models suggest a warm front pushing north across the lake,
however there is little confidence in the forecast that far out
given the weak overall flow and model divergence.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...26
NEAR TERM...Garuckas/26
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...04
AVIATION...Garuckas
MARINE...04