Surrey, North Dakota 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

131
FXUS63 KBIS 131740
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1240 PM CDT Wed Aug 13 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms may return mainly
  to south central and eastern North Dakota late Thursday
  afternoon through Thursday night.

- Expect highs in the 70s to mid 80s through the remainder of
  the week, although highs may reach the low 90s in the
  southwest today and south central on Thursday.

- Remaining smoke in north central and eastern ND should clear
  out later today.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1240 PM CDT Wed Aug 13 2025

Showers in the north have overall diminished early this
afternoon, although remain in south central portions along the
elevated warm front. Instability still remains limited or capped
thus activity should be isolated through the afternoon. This
evening a few more showers and thunderstorms are still possible,
although capping could remain. Smoke is also starting to
diminish across the area. Overall made some minor adjustments to
the forecast based on current trends.

UPDATE
Issued at 1008 AM CDT Wed Aug 13 2025

A few showers and thunderstorms are attempting to develop along
the elevated warm front in the northwest and south central.
There is ample shear for these, although instability is lacking.
Added in some slight pops although as instability increased
today so does the capping. Thus these initial showers and
thunderstorms are expected to diminish later this morning. Later
today through this evening could be another round of showers and
thunderstorms, although the strong capping in place may still
limit this activity. Some smoke reports continue in the north
and east. Made some minor smoke adjustments based on current
trends as well.

UPDATE
Issued at 603 AM CDT Wed Aug 13 2025

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are present in northeastern
Montana and are heading towards northwestern ND. It`s a little
uncertain if they will reach the state or dissipate before
reaching the MT/ND border, but increased PoPs in northwestern
ND early this morning regardless. Either way, any showers and
thunderstorms that reach the state should dissipate by mid-
morning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 426 AM CDT Wed Aug 13 2025

A few showers and a brief thunderstorm have developed in
west central ND, while additional showers and thunderstorms may
move into western ND from eastern Montana early this morning.
These should dissipate by mid-morning and overall, expect mostly
dry conditions through the day today. An incoming thermal
ridge, along with southerly surface flow, will result in hot and
muggy conditions returning to the state with highs forecast to
reach the low 90s in southwestern ND today, and then again in
south central ND Thursday.

A weak shortwave could force a few showers and thunderstorms
late this afternoon or evening. Initially, this would be mainly
in far southern ND near the ND/SD border, then potentially in
southeastern ND overnight, including the James River Valley.
However, a very strong cap from aforementioned thermal ridging
looks to remain in place over the highest instability during the
afternoon and evening hours. During the overnight hours, when
shower and thunderstorm chances shift more to southeastern ND, a
weaker cap is progged where cooler temperatures aloft should be
present. With adequate instability of around 1500 to 2000 J/kg
and very marginal deep layer shear (around 25 kts), a strong
storm or two cannot be ruled out, although severe weather seems
unlikely.

For Thursday, well organized upper low will churn from west to
east across south central Canada. SPC and CSU Machine Learning
maintain a Slight Risk and slight risk equivalent respectively,
mainly over south central and eastern ND. Overall, mid-level
troughing from the low looks pretty marginal. However, a surface
cold front will pass through the state from northwest to
southeast. Per RAP analysis, there will be plenty of instability
available in south central and eastern ND during the late
afternoon and early evening hours. However, a fairly stout cap
will also be in place and not entirely convinced the cold fropa
will break it.

In regard to the forecast area within the slight risk (south
central ND, including the James River Valley), this seems like a
very conditional threat due to aforementioned capping. If
thunderstorms do develop, the environment is otherwise favorable
with MUCAPE in excess of 3500 J/kg and deep layer shear of
around 35 to 45 kts. With 0 to 6 km bulk shear vectors about 45
degrees from the frontal boundary, quick evolution into a
cluster seems the most likely storm mode. Nevertheless, should
any discrete cells develop, golf ball size hail will not be out
of the question. Winds up to 70 mph are also possible.

Beyond Thursday, expect cooler conditions to return with highs
mostly in the 70s to low 80s through the weekend. A few
thunderstorms are possible again Friday evening and overnight
mainly near the ND/SD border. After which, periodic low shower
and thunderstorm chances are forecast through the weekend and
into early next week. Seasonable highs temperatures, perhaps on
the slightly cooler side of average for parts of the state,
remain progged for next week. However, models remain in
disagreement about whether a lowly amplified ridging or more
zonal flow pattern is favored. The former of which would likely
lead to seasonably above average temperatures on select days.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1240 PM CDT Wed Aug 13 2025

Mainly VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period.
An isolated shower or thunderstorm is possible through this
evening, although confidence was only high enough to include
PROB30 this evening in the KJMS TAF. Otherwise expected mainly
FEW to SCT cloud cover with VFR heights. This morning`s smoke
should diminish through the day today. Look for a breezy
southerly wind as well today. Any shower or thunderstorm
activity will diminish tonight giving way to more VFR
conditions. Winds will remain southerly tonight. Thursday sees a
cold front move through the area from west to east. This will
shift the winds from the south to the west. Chances for showers
and thunderstorms may also return to central and eastern
portions, although may delay until Thursday afternoon and
evening.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Anglin
DISCUSSION...Telken
AVIATION...Anglin