Surrey, North Dakota 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

418
FXUS63 KBIS 021925
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
225 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A winter storm will continue to impact the Northern Plains
  today, with light to moderate snow across portions of central
  and eastern areas of the state.

- Seasonably cool temperatures will continue through the end of
  the week. There is also a chance (50 to 80%) of rain and snow
  Thursday night through Friday.

- Dry weather and a warming trend can be expected for next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 222 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025

Currently, last round of moisture continues across the Northern
Plains this afternoon, as enhanced mid/upper level forcing
associated with the base of the mid level trough and enhanced
left exit region upper jet dynamics are over the region.
Aforementioned forcing, coupled with a continued thermal upglide
flow and an associated TROWAL, will all bring continued light
to moderate snow to eastern and at times central areas of the
state today in the form of wrap around snow. Strong moisture
fetch originating out of the Gulf of America would normally
bring heavier precip/snow amounts, though much of this moisture
will be used up be strong/severe convective activity today
across the Mississippi/Ohio River valleys. Still, areas within
the warning (James River Valley) will see in excess of 6 inches
of snow by the end of this event, with already a few reports of
6-8 inches.

Current system lifts northeast tonight, ending precipitation
from west to east as forcing rapidly decreases. A quasi-zonal
flow aloft will be in place for Thursday, maintaining cooler
temperatures and variable cloud cover. This will then be
followed by a split flow pattern developing Thursday night, with
a northern stream wave bringing another round of light
precipitation (mainly in the form of snow (though some rain
mixed in)) late tomorrow through the day Friday.

After Friday and into next week, confidence is high for dry
weather a warming trend as flow aloft is projected to transition
to upper level ridging allowing mild Pacific air into the Great
Plains region.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1248 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025

Adverse aviation conditions will continue through the 18Z
forecast period. Widespread MVFR to IFR ceilings across the
area, with occasionally LIFR conditions through much of the TAF
period. A winter storm continues to bring snow to central and
and eastern North Dakota, which will slowly taper off from west
to east later today and tonight. Winds will be northerly to
northwesterly at all terminals, with gusts up to 25 knots
possible.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ this evening
for NDZ019>023-025-034>036-046.
Winter Storm Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for NDZ037-
047-048-050-051.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...NH
AVIATION...NH