Stanley, North Dakota 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

482
FXUS63 KBIS 291122
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
622 AM CDT Thu May 29 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Patchy fog has developed across portions of central North
  Dakota and will linger through the mid morning hours.

- A hazy sky due to wildfire smoke aloft is expected through at
  least early Saturday.

- Warm and mainly dry conditions expected through the weekend,
  with widespread highs peaking in the 80s this weekend.

- A more active pattern, promoting widespread chances for
  precipitation and cooling temperatures, is expected early next
  week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 620 AM CDT Thu May 29 2025

Patchy fog has begun to develop this morning, mainly over south
central North Dakota. Visibility reductions down to a few miles
have been observed at a couple of weather stations, mainly south
of Interstate 94. We will continue to monitor visibility trends
this morning, especially those counties along the border with
South Dakota. Any fog that has developed is expected to lift
by mid morning. Otherwise, low temperatures are broadly in the
40s, though a few locations in the Missouri Slope area have
dropped into the upper 30s. Winds remain light and variable,
while very few clouds linger over the forecast area. A hazy sky
due to wildfire smoke moving in out of the Canadian Prairies
have become evident with the sunrise, and is expected to persist
through the day today. No adjustments were performed this
morning, as the forecast remains on track.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 330 AM CDT Thu May 29 2025

A mainly clear sky is found over the forecast area this
morning, though it may appear hazy across the north and west due
to wildfire smoke aloft. With a near- surface inversion evident
in BUFKIT soundings and with light, variable winds across much
of North Dakota, patchy fog is expected to develop mainly south
of Highway 200. Any fog that does develop is expected to lift
through the mid morning. Otherwise, low temperatures are
broadly in the upper 30s southwest to lower 50s northeast.

An upper level ridge has begun to encroach into the northern
Plains today. With surface high pressure settling over the
forecast area, warming temperatures and mainly quiet weather is
anticipated through the end of the week. High temperatures this
afternoon are forecasting the lower 70s southwest up to the
lower 80s northeast. Winds are anticipated to remain light
throughout the day today, with sustained speeds up to around 8
to 12 MPH this afternoon, while veering around the high pressure
center found in northern South Dakota. Similar conditions are
then expected through the day Friday, with high temperatures in
the afternoon forecast to peak into the upper 70s to upper 80s.
Of note both days is the dense wildfire smoke moving in aloft
out of Manitoba. With stable conditions across the forecast
this afternoon, not much of this smoke is expected to reach the
ground. However, a shortwave traversing and flattening the ridge
over the forecast area Friday afternoon may help mix some of
this smoke down toward the surface. In any case, hazy skies and
the light smell of smoke is anticipated both days across much of
North Dakota. In collaboration with FGF, we have added in 30%
minimum sky cover following the HRRR vertically integrated smoke
model through Friday evening. Wildfire smoke aloft should begin
to clear eastward from the forecast area Friday evening as
another upper level ridge develops and pushes in across the
northern Plains. With the redeveloping ridge, dry weather and
warming temperatures are expected to continue through Sunday.
High temperatures each day are forecast to peak well into the
upper 70s and 80s, though there is potential that a few
locations across the north Sunday afternoon could reach highs in
the lower 90s (50 to 70 percent chance).

Looking ahead into next week, the upper level ridge is expected
to again diminish as a deep upper level trough crosses the
Rockies. With this, we are anticipating a much more active
pattern over the forecast area as flow aloft turns southwesterly
to near zonal through the first half of the week. As such,
widespread medium to high chances for precipitation are expected
daily across North Dakota, while high temperatures cool back
toward near or slightly below normal (50s and 60s) by Wednesday.
Of note is the potential for severe weather during this period.
The CSU Machine Learning continues to paint portions of western
and central North Dakota with low probabilities both Monday and
Tuesday. As of the current forecast cycle, the calibrated ensemble
advertises medium to high chances for much of the forecast area
to exceed 1 inch of rainfall total through Wednesday morning,
with medium chances for portions of south central North Dakota
to exceed 2 inches during this same period. However, the
ensemble remains very discordant during this period. The
25th-75th high temperature spreads during this period are
almost 15-20F each day. Thus we will continue to monitor
forecast trends as we head into the weekend. Along with this
potential, this more active pattern may promote gusty winds
across portions of the forecast area next week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 620 AM CDT Thu May 29 2025

VFR ceilings and visibility is anticipated at all terminals
throughout the 12Z TAF period. Patch fog has developed over
portion south central North Dakota this morning, and is expected
to linger through the mid morning. Confidence in visibility
reductions at any given TAF site is low. Dense wildfire smoke
can be found aloft across North Dakota, and is expected to last
throughout the entirety of the TAF period. Winds today will
remain light, generally less than 12 knots, becoming southerly
in the west and westerly in central North Dakota as they veer
around high pressure in South Dakota.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Adam
DISCUSSION...Adam
AVIATION...Adam