Minot, North Dakota 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

255
FXUS63 KBIS 130926
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
426 AM CDT Wed Aug 13 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms may return mainly
  to south central and eastern North Dakota late Thursday
  afternoon through Thursday night.

- Expect highs in the 70s to mid 80s through the remainder of
  the week, although highs may reach the low 90s in the
  southwest today and south central on Thursday.

- Remaining smoke in north central and eastern ND should clear
  out today.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 426 AM CDT Wed Aug 13 2025

A few showers and a brief thunderstorm have developed in
west central ND, while additional showers and thunderstorms may
move into western ND from eastern Montana early this morning.
These should dissipate by mid-morning and overall, expect mostly
dry conditions through the day today. An incoming thermal
ridge, along with southerly surface flow, will result in hot and
muggy conditions returning to the state with highs forecast to
reach the low 90s in southwestern ND today, and then again in
south central ND Thursday.

A weak shortwave could force a few showers and thunderstorms
late this afternoon or evening. Initially, this would be mainly
in far southern ND near the ND/SD border, then potentially in
southeastern ND overnight, including the James River Valley.
However, a very strong cap from aforementioned thermal ridging
looks to remain in place over the highest instability during the
afternoon and evening hours. During the overnight hours, when
shower and thunderstorm chances shift more to southeastern ND, a
weaker cap is progged where cooler temperatures aloft should be
present. With adequate instability of around 1500 to 2000 J/kg
and very marginal deep layer shear (around 25 kts), a strong
storm or two cannot be ruled out, although severe weather seems
unlikely.

For Thursday, well organized upper low will churn from west to
east across south central Canada. SPC and CSU Machine Learning
maintain a Slight Risk and slight risk equivalent respectively,
mainly over south central and eastern ND. Overall, mid-level
troughing from the low looks pretty marginal. However, a surface
cold front will pass through the state from northwest to
southeast. Per RAP analysis, there will be plenty of instability
available in south central and eastern ND during the late
afternoon and early evening hours. However, a fairly stout cap
will also be in place and not entirely convinced the cold fropa
will break it.

In regard to the forecast area within the slight risk (south
central ND, including the James River Valley), this seems like a
very conditional threat due to aforementioned capping. If
thunderstorms do develop, the environment is otherwise favorable
with MUCAPE in excess of 3500 J/kg and deep layer shear of
around 35 to 45 kts. With 0 to 6 km bulk shear vectors about 45
degrees from the frontal boundary, quick evolution into a
cluster seems the most likely storm mode. Nevertheless, should
any discrete cells develop, golf ball size hail will not be out
of the question. Winds up to 70 mph are also possible.

Beyond Thursday, expect cooler conditions to return with highs
mostly in the 70s to low 80s through the weekend. A few
thunderstorms are possible again Friday evening and overnight
mainly near the ND/SD border. After which, periodic low shower
and thunderstorm chances are forecast through the weekend and
into early next week. Seasonable highs temperatures, perhaps on
the slightly cooler side of average for parts of the state,
remain progged for next week. However, models remain in
disagreement about whether a lowly amplified ridging or more
zonal flow pattern is favored. The former of which would likely
lead to seasonably above average temperatures on select days.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1234 AM CDT Wed Aug 13 2025

VFR ceilings and visibility are expected through the period with
a few possible exceptions. First, a ribbon of smoke impacting
parts of eastern and north central ND may reduce visibility at
KJMS for a few hours. Even then, visibility will most likely
remain VFR, though could become MVFR. Second, showers and
thunderstorms in eastern Montana may impact western ND late
tonight or early Wednesday morning. However, confidence is too
low to include in any TAFs at this time. Third, another round of
showers and thunderstorms may impact far south central and
southeastern ND Wednesday evening.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Telken
AVIATION...Telken