Mapleton, North Dakota 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

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FXUS63 KFGF 301215
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
715 AM CDT Fri May 30 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Near surface smoke concentrations increasing this weekend with potential
  impacts to all population groups.

- 15% chance for severe storms Monday afternoon/evening for parts of
southeast North Dakota and west central Minnesota.

- 40% chance for more than 1 inch of rain early next week
  southeast North Dakota and west central Minnesota.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 715 AM CDT Fri May 30 2025

Skies remain hazy across the area this morning as Canadian smoke
filters down. This continues throughout today and into the
weekend. There is a chance for a few spots near the
International Border see near surface smoke this afternoon which
may limit visibilities at times. The bigger push of near surface
smoke will be late tonight and into tomorrow morning. Otherwise,
temperatures will be in the upper 70s to lower 80s today.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 314 AM CDT Fri May 30 2025

...Synopsis...

Due north 500 mb flow over the area currently in advance of a
short wave ridge that does move over the area today. Winds at
the sfc will turn from the southwest direction early this
morning to a predominate west direction rest of the day.
Favorable direction for warming so today should see a boost of
around 5 degrees in high temps. Hazy sun though today due to
upper level smoke.

Weak surface trough, wind shift to the northwest, will move into
western ND mid to late aftn. A narrow ribbon of instability is
present (500-700 j/kg) from southeast Saskatchewan to west of
Minot to about Dickinson at 00z then weakens as it moves east by
03z toward Bismarck. Moisture is very limited and tied pretty
much to the path of the upper level short wave which is thru
far northeast Montana into western ND into central SD by 12z
Sat. Latest guidance suggests any precipitation chances will
stay to our west.

Saturday will see a northwest wind, but a warm day as there is
no cooling behind this trough. Kept with NBM which is quite warm
with highs in some areas upper 80s in the north valley. What
could keep it cooler is potential thickness of what is expected
to be high concentrations of near surface smoke. Did use the sky
cover from HRRR smoke for the period thru 00z Sun (48 hour
period from 00z HRRR data). Also used smoke from HRRR as well
for putting it into the grids. Though smoothed it out as looks
odd to have ribbons of smoke, which isnt often the case. Went
areas of smoke all locations in the fcst area Saturday. AQI out
for NW MN this weekend. I didnt go into Sat night/Sun yet as
consensus among neighboring offices is to keep it thru about 48
hours from 00z.

...Smoke/Canadian wildfires...

High level concentrations of smoke will remain over the area
today and produce a hazy sun appearance. Not expecting
reductions in vsby...though an odd 5 or 6SM from ASOS or AWOS
would be possible. Main near surface based smoke arrives
Saturday and likely into Sunday as well. How long the near
surface smoke high concentrations will last is unknown. For now
the AQI forecast into the unhealthy range this weekend. State
of Minnesota Pollution Control Agency has AQI alert for
unhealthy conditions in NW MN this weekend. State of North
Dakota does not issue alerts such as these, but expect similar
conditions.

Dayshift Thu did a DSS packet for partners and looked good.

Unfortunately the long range outlook for the area where the main
fires are in Canada is for continued dry weather next week,
though not as hot.

...Severe chances late Monday...

Operational models have continued to be different in progression
of a cold front Monday. Majority of the long range models (GFS,
ECMWF, GEM) have surface cold front in our far southern fcst
area 00z Tue near Park Rapids to Fergus Falls to Sisseton SD
line. MUCAPE along the front in the very warm airmass where dew
pts will climb in the low 60s may reach 3000 j/kg. NBM (model
blends) due to variations in model ensembles) continue with a
much broader and heavier rainfall event for our area than most
of the operational models do. Most operational models keep main
rains Mon night SD into central MN and dont have much rain in
our north. NBM QPF and WPC stuck close it still indicates 0.50
inch to 0.75 inch in northeast ND. Though this down over the
past day or two. Along the front 0-6 km shear is near 50 kts
with 30-40 kts just ahead of the front...so certainly remains
potential for severe storms in our far southeast late Mon aftn.
Timing of the front is critical.

...Heavy rain chance early next week...

Overall trends are indicating the chance for heavier rainfall
(more than 1 inch) is lowering in most areas. Still though NBM
indicating 40 pct chance of this Bemidji to Fargo and south.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 552 AM CDT Fri May 30 2025

For the 12z TAFs...will have few clouds today...but there is a
layer aloft of smoke, hence the sct250 idea in the TAFs today
into tonight. Winds mainly westerly 8-13kts...a bit more
northwest Bemidji. Reductions in vsby in the afternoon due to
smoke may occur but did not include at this time. It would be 5
or 6SM.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Spender
DISCUSSION...Riddle
AVIATION...Riddle