Langdon, North Dakota 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

441
FXUS63 KFGF 291205
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
705 AM CDT Thu May 29 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- High level smoke moving into the area the next 48 hours.

- 40% chance for more than 1 inch of rain next Monday- Tuesday.
  Slight chance for severe t-storms Monday late
  afternoon/evening southeast North Dakota into west central
  Minnesota.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 705 AM CDT Thu May 29 2025

Current satellite and radar has an area of clouds through
northwestern Minnesota and the Red River Valley this morning
shifting south. Just north of the International Border we can
see the smoke from the fires aloft. This smoke will filter down
through the day creating hazy conditions across the forecast
area. Some smoke may reach the surface this afternoon, but
visibilities at this time don`t look to be impacted as smoke
should remain aloft. Otherwise, temperatures this morning are
in the 50s and climb to the 70s this afternoon.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 307 AM CDT Thu May 29 2025

...Synopsis...

500 mb low that affected the area the last 2 days is moving into
Wisconsin and weakening with trough becoming elongated from
southern Ontario to southern Minnesota. Drier air aloft moving
southward with weak surface high near Aberdeen SD at 08z.
Scattered mid level CU today in west central MN and there are
some mid cloud patches from NW Ontario southwest thru NW MN
which are moving southwest. So there is still some influence
aloft in regards to winds around the upper low to our south.
Overall though impacts will continue to lessen today. Feel any
chance for aftn shower is just to our south/east today out of
our fcst area.

500 mb ridge builds in Friday with warmer airmass moving in form
the northwest. Highest temps Friday north valley. 500 mb short
wave drops southeast to our west Friday night then ridging again
moves in this weekend. Not expecting any precip Friday-Sunday
period. Potential exists for 90 degrees in many areas on Sunday
with a south-southwest wind 10-20kts.

...High level smoke next 48 hours...

RAP and HRRR smoke forecasts indicate widespread high level
smoke moving south overspreading the area today thru Friday
(could be longer). Now concentrations for near surface smoke
does look to remain more from northern into eastern Manitoba, NW
Ontario and NE Minnesota the next 24-48 hours. So did go with 30
pct sky thru Friday for high level smoke, but due to lack of
more surface level smoke did not include FU in the grids. This
may be needed for addition pending how actual smoke
concentrations end up. Right now no model is showing any vsby
reductions in smoke and nothing upstream either.


...40% chc of 1 inch or more of rain next Monday-Tuesday and
slight chance for severe storms...

00z models suite have diverged, some significantly, in regards
to early to mid next week. 00z ECMWF is quite fast with a
separate 500 mb moving thru central Canada and the upper wave
that is near Baja California as it moves northeast is shunted
much farther east more into Minnesota and Wisconsin. Thus its
soln moves the front thru Monday with a period of rain/t-storms
but then moves it out quick. GFS and Canadian global are
trending that way too with more focus of heavier rain more SD
into central MN into Wisconsin. NBM is similar to WPC QPF in
that it keeps the heavier rain more over E ND into NW MN, as
some solutions such as the UKMET are indeed farther northwest.
NBM shows 40 pct chc of 1 inch or more of rain for the 48 hour
period 12z Monday to 12z Wednesday. Using NBM probs for more
than 1000 j/kg does reach 50 pct up to the SD/MN/ND border by
00z Tues. So some chance for a strong storm or two if the front
is slower as ahead of the front will be very warm temperatures
and dew pts near 60. Severe risk is there as 0-6km bulk shear
near the front is 40kts...but right along the front. Ahead of it
it is 25-30 kts. SPC did put far SE ND into WC MN in a 15 pct
severe risk for Day 5 (late Monday).

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 544 AM CDT Thu May 29 2025

Scattered to broken bands of mid clouds over northwest and west
central MN into the Red River valley to start the day. Scattered
mid clouds around this morning but gradually moving out leading
to a clear sky tonight. High level smoke is anticipated to move
in today. Degree of thickness is uncertain. At this time vsby
restrictions in smoke are not anticipated thru 12z Fri

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Spender
DISCUSSION...Riddle
AVIATION...Riddle