Langdon, North Dakota 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

361
FXUS63 KFGF 101716
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1216 PM CDT Tue Jun 10 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Thunderstorm chances increase by Monday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1215 PM CDT Tue Jun 10 2025

Beginning to notice the chance for some convective activity in
the far south today as a cold front works through the area and
potentially provides some forcing atop the 850-700mb thermal
ridging. Overall would expect storm coverage to be very sparse
if anything does form with higher chances for storms likely
being south of our area. Hail would and marginally severe wind
would be the main threat if anything does form.

UPDATE Issued at 957 AM CDT Tue Jun 10 2025

Showers have largely worked east out the area or weakened with
with only a few sprinkles remaining in the Lake of the
Woods/Bemidji corridor. These will persist through noon before
clear skies prevail into the early afternoon with temps climbing
near 80 for most today.

UPDATE
Issued at 655 AM CDT Tue Jun 10 2025

Fog is improving in NW MN around TVF, FSE where it was dense, as
mid clouds move in 11-12z. Same thing now nearing 12z in DTL and
will expect the same in the rest of west central MN. So idea of
letting SPS for patchy dense fog expire at 13z seems to be
working out. Few mid level showers moving thru NW MN attm but no
signs now of any precip hitting the ground (other than the odd
sprinkle). Winds will turn northwest today....first in DVL basin
late morning then progress southeast from there. Another band of
mid clouds moving into NW ND attm. So for the balance of the day
areas of mid clouds. Enough sunshine and with warm 925/850 mb
temps should see temps reach well into the 70s and low-mid 80s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 313 AM CDT Tue Jun 10 2025

...Synopsis...

Fast moving 500 mb wave moving southeast from S Manitoba into
northeast ND early this morning. A few elevated showers with
this feature with an area of mid level clouds. This wave is
ahead of a weak surface boundary that pushes thru the area this aftn
and turns winds from the south/southwest to northwest. Also a
weak surface low shows up in the meso analysis tracking thru far
northern valley 18z-21z.  Indications are an area of surface
smoke may move from Saskatchewan into North Dakota with this
front. The more active newer fire growth of late has been in
northeast BC and northwest Alberta and this is where the smoke
is coming from. Also we have some fog around, ground fog, in
areas with light winds. Highly variable visibility but
widespread enough to mention fog in the fcst til after sunrise.
Warmest 850-925 mb temps are this morning thru early aftn and
with enough sun allow temps to warm quickly into the upper 70s
to mid 80s. Airmass upstream in southern Saskatchewan produced
widespread mid to upper 80s.

500 mb flow will be zonal along the northern tier of the U.S.
rest of the week into the weekend and this will make timing of
any rain chances and clouds difficult. It does appear though
that high pressure will develop over northeast Manitoba Wed-Thu
and may be enough to keep the next few 500 mb waves more south.
Wednesday wave is pretty weak and will give some rain shower
chances in SD into southern MN. Consensus among WFO neighbors
was do go a bit lower than NBM pops along the SD/ND border and
ND/SD/MN border area and precipitation out.

Thursday will see a stronger short wave move along the same
path. Once again the main moisture support and warm advection at
850 mb looks to just brush our far southern fcst area with
highest QPF east central SD into southern MN. Once again
neighboring offices consensus was to lower initial WPC QPF,
which was done and new updated QPF sent from WPC, which keeps
the 0.50 to 1 inch and higher amounts south of our fcst area.
NBM pops likely too far north into the drier air but having
some 20-30 pops along Hwy 2 is reasonable Thu aftn into Friday
morning.

...Thunderstorm chances increase by Monday...

Disagreement among models for the weekend. GFS is faster with
wave and stronger vs ECMWF which is 12-24 hours slower. NBM pops
likely too widespread too long due to the varied model solutions
that are used in it. The overall consensus from GEFS/ECMWF
ensembles is that an upper level wave will move near the
US/Canadian border Monday along with a 50 kt 500 mb jet. This
should bring enough lift to generate an area of showers and
t-storms late Sunday or more likely into Monday. Degree of
instabilty in question as consensus is to keep higher CAPE
values and best instability just south of us. But machine
learning tools from yesterday do indicate at least some 5-10 pct
chance of severe Monday. probs for more than 1000 j/kg surface
CAPE from GEFS is 70 percent into the southern RRV 00z Tues. The
NBM is a bit lower 50-60 percent in the south valley. Much
lower north. So looks like that Monday period is the one to
watch to see how things trends the next few days.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1215 PM CDT Tue Jun 10 2025

VFR skies prevailing with winds gradually shifting S to NW this
afternoon as gusts hit 20-25kts Smoke is still being reported by
the observers at GFK and FAR through vis reductions area only
being noted at GFK. Have kept the mention of smoke in the taf
through the mid afternoon but confidence on timing and impacts
is low.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TT
DISCUSSION...Riddle
AVIATION...TT