Horace, North Dakota 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

390
FXUS63 KFGF 121756
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1256 PM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Probabilities of 1 inch of rain or more is over 70% 18z
  Thursday to 18z Friday for far SE ND into west central MN

- Risk of strong or severe storms looks more on Monday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1256 PM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025

Clouds and precipitation across our southern counties continues
to increase, although most of the rain has so far stayed well
south of the I-94 corridor. There will continue to be fairly
high precipitation chances into the afternoon as the upper
level shortwave in northeastern SD moves east.

UPDATE
Issued at 1026 AM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025

Starting to get some light rain pushing into far southern
portions of Sargent, Richland, and Grant counties. Impacts look
pretty minimal at this point but will continue to monitor for
the potential for heavier rain. Adjusted POPs a bit for current
trends, but no huge changes to what we had going.

UPDATE Issued at 654 AM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025

Confidence in how this rain system will evolve and rain amounts
remain much lower than usual for a system within 24 hours. 06z
ECMWF shifts main rain south a bit and HRRR/RAP and high res
Canadian are also a bit more south now more into northeast SD
into St Cloud vs in our far south fcst area. Something to watch
unfold today.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 345 AM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025

...Synopsis...

We will be entering a period when forecast confidence will be
low due to the timing differences, strengths and track of
individual 500 mb short waves that will move through
predominately westerly 500 mb flow across the northern tier of
the U.S. Initially the track of these short waves are more
across South Dakota into southern Minnesota but early next week
the track of these will be farther north as 500 mb ridge builds
and the northern edge of instability creeps north, this is
especially true Monday, which overall now appears to the day to
watch for any severe potential.

...Heavy Rainfall possible this afternoon into tonight southeast
ND into west central MN...

500 mb short wave is over southern Montana near Billings. It
will move east into tonight along the ND/SD border into central
MN. The 850 mb low will follow same track or just a tad south
thru far northern SD into central MN. These tracks are a bit
farther north than prev model fcsts were showing. PWATs increase
to 1.50 inch near the 850 mb low track and there is 40 kts 850
mb winds bringing up richer 850 mb moisture into western MN late
today/evening. Thus conditions are more favorable now that a
band of heavy rainfall will develop and be centered near the 850
mb low track....far northeast SD/far southeast ND then east
into central MN. Probs from NBM and WPC QPF show highest
rainfall amounts 2-3 inches in that zone from Sisseton east thru
Elbow Lake MN to Little Falls MN. The northern edge of the rain
area still looks like about Highway 2 with, with only very
light rain chances north of there to the border.

Conditions going into this rain event are such that the area can
withstand a steady rain giving up to 2 inches in that small 60
mile zone.

...Weekend into Next Week T-storm chances...

Looking over model data, ensembles, severe chances via CSU and
probs for MU and surface CAPE...it looks like the main focus for
any strong or severe storms will be Monday, not Sunday. Saturday
itself looks like a very low shower chance day. Sunday has a
chance for a few showers or t-storms....but main wave now
appears to move thru ND/northwest MN Monday and this time period
from 18z Monday to 00z Tuesday shows prob for more than 1000
j/kg sfc CAPE over 70 pct into SE ND along with sufficient bulk
shear 0-6 km 35 kts or so. There is a tight gradient northward
on how far instability will get...focus seems to be SE ND/SD/MN
border area focused 21z Mon to 00z Tue.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1256 PM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025

VFR conditions with mainly mid and high clouds (and a bit of
smoke aloft) so far. Conditions will deteriorate as rain and
more moisture push towards the TAF sites later this afternoon
and overnight. Ceilings will drop to MVFR and then perhaps IFR
at some sites. Rain is most likely at KFAR and KBJI but have at
least VCSH at all airports. Some improvement by the end of the
period, but not all the way back to VFR for most locations.
Winds will increase out of the east, with some gusts up to
around 20 kts.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Riddle/JR
DISCUSSION...Riddle
AVIATION...JR