Devils Lake, North Dakota 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

644
FXUS63 KFGF 130534
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1134 PM CST Tue Nov 12 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Light rain will move through the area late tonight into
  Wednesday. There is a 60% chance for greater than 0.25" of
  rainfall from far southeast North Dakota and across west
  central Minnesota.

- A cooler and wetter pattern starts to take shape towards the
  middle of next week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 949 PM CST Tue Nov 12 2024

Coord with WFO BIS mid evening and decided to leave a 20 pop in
DVL region and central ND for any light precip that may form but
agree it doesnt look like much of a chance now. Otherwise will
need to wait to see how light rain develops northward into
eastern SD/southwest MN toward 09z to see timing of light rain
into SE ND/WC MN, which should be toward 12z. All in all, it
will be a very light rainfall event for all but far east.


UPDATE
Issued at 548 PM CST Tue Nov 12 2024

Winds are still marginally advisory level with a few gusts
scraping 40 mph, but the widespreadedness is diminishing. For
this reason, the wind advisory will be allowed to expire at 6
PM, but you could still see isolated gusts to 40 mph.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1246 PM CST Tue Nov 12 2024

...Synopsis...

Shortwave ridging continues eastward today, with a relatively strong
low level jet bringing gusty winds through the remainder of the
afternoon. Look for this to weaken late this evening as the H5
pattern begins to transition more southwesterly ahead of our next
system. Light rain is expected to develop along a trough axis later
tonight, bringing a 60 percent chance for 0.25 inch or more rain to
portions of the area, primarily west-central Minnesota and far
southeastern North Dakota. Lighter amounts are expected further
northwest.

Brief H5 ridging traverses the area heading into Thursday; however,
troughing in southern Saskatchewan and Manitoba will limit the
strength of the ridge. Overall, warmer than average temperatures are
likely across the Northern Plains Friday into Saturday, with rain
chances on the increase once more late Saturday into Sunday. Ptypes
look to remain liquid for the most part, with a very low chance for
a rain/snow mix across portions of the Devils Lake Basin Saturday
night.

Heading into next week, there are signals for additional activity,
mainly in the form of rain; however, ensemble guidance suggests a
more seasonal shift in temperatures, which could introduce a mention
of snow across portions of the area. At this time, confidence is far
too low to consider impact potential, but is worth keeping an eye on
moving into the middle of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1131 PM CST Tue Nov 12 2024

Increased low level moisture with a south-southeast surface flow
will bring in lowering ceilings into Wednesday, affecting the
immediate Red River valley and especially areas east toward
Bemidji where IFR conditions should develop Wed AM and last into
the night. Wind shift to the northwest will occur DVL region in
the morning reaching the Red River midday or early afternoon and
Bemidji area Wed evening. Light rain will be most dominate east
of the Red River where some lower vsby in fog may develop as
Wednesday progresses.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Perroux/Riddle
DISCUSSION...Lynch
AVIATION...Riddle