Devils Lake, North Dakota 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

401
FXUS63 KFGF 221801
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
101 PM CDT Sun Jun 22 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Level 2 out of 5 risk for severe thunderstorms Sunday
  afternoon and evening. Primary hazards will be damaging wind
  gusts to 70 mph, large hail up to 2 inches, and isolated
  tornadoes.

- Heat index values approach or exceed 100 degrees in the
  southern Red River Valley and portions of west central
  Minnesota. Heat related impacts are expected.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 100 PM CDT Sun Jun 22 2025

THe earlier elevated severe convection has transitioned
north/weakened with pockets of elevated non severe thunderstorms
still lingering. We are in a lull with stratus in the west and
more pockets of clearing towards the east. Eventually the
position of the frontal zones and clearing will play roles in
new development this afternoon when the next round of severe
weather is anticipated. Trend has been for the earliest CAMs
showing this next round starting in the 2-4pm period, with the
latest CAMs slowing the front down in the east lingering the
severe threat through 10pm in our far east.

UPDATE
Issued at 720 AM CDT Sun Jun 22 2025

Watching thunderstorm development this morning in southeastern
North Dakota. A few elevated stronger storms have formed thus
far in response to steep mid level lapse rates and an
approaching H7 shortwave. These storms will continue to lift
north and east through the mid morning and could become severe
as temperatures warm and instability increases near the surface.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 308 AM CDT Sun Jun 22 2025

...Synopsis...

H5 ridging continues to work eastward into the Upper Midwest and
Great Lakes region today. Shortwave activity will traverse the
western flank of the ridge ahead of a cold front that moves into
eastern North Dakota this afternoon. Dew points ahead of the front
are in the low to mid 70s, which will combine with afternoon highs
in the upper 80s to low 90s to allow heat index values upwards of
100 degrees. The cold front will bring a chance for showers and
thunderstorms this afternoon and evening with severe thunderstorms
possible. Much cooler temperatures return on Monday, along with
lower humidity. Look for minimal rain chances Monday and Tuesday,
with increased chances for showers and thunderstorms starting
Wednesday afternoon.

...Severe Thunderstorm Risk this Afternoon and Evening...

Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and
evening along and ahead of a cold front. Development could begin as
early as late morning as an H7 shortwave moves along the upper flow
from southwest to northeast. The resultant theta-e gradient could
provide an axis of development for supercells or hybrid clusters by
midday. Soundings support SBCAPE upwards of 4000 J/Kg, along with 25
to 50 knots of low to mid level shear. This, along with a relatively
deep effective inflow layer, will support a mention of isolated
tornado potential, along with large hail upwards of 2 inches in
association with any supercells that develop. As convection goes
upscale during the afternoon and evening, high DCAPE of 1300 to 1700
J/Kg will support damaging wind gusts of 70 mph or higher. CAMs do
not show great agreement in where initiation takes place; however,
there is some consensus on the central Red River Valley and points
east.

...Heat Impacts Expected This Weekend...

A combination of high dew points in the 70s and afternoon
temperatures in the 90s, will provide an environment supportive
of heat index values of 100 to 105 degrees. Best chances will
be in the southern Red River Valley and portions of west central
Minnesota. A heat advisory remains in effect through late this
afternoon, with temperatures falling substantially following
today`s cold front.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 100 PM CDT Sun Jun 22 2025

Low stratus with variable impacts across the region (ranging
from LIFR to MVFR) are ongoing. Stratus is expected to
overspread the region with a cold front passage, with
improvement to VFR after 09Z in eastern ND and closer to 12Z in
parts of MN. There are still pockets of scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms in far northeast ND and MN, however more
organized/stronger activity is expected after 20Z with this
transitioning east though mid evening as the front pushes east.
Winds shift to the south ahead of the front and eventually to
the west late in the TAF period behind the front.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for NDZ052-053.
MN...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for MNZ006-009-016-
     017-022>024-027-028.
     Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for MNZ029>032-040.

&&

$$

UPDATE...DJR
DISCUSSION...Lynch
AVIATION...DJR