Carrington, North Dakota 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

532
FXUS63 KBIS 101433
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
933 AM CDT Tue Jun 10 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warm today (highs in the 70s to lower 80s), before trending
  cooler into the 60s by Thursday and Friday.

- Near surface smoke may return this morning, lasting through
  the day.

- Daily chances for showers and thunderstorms will begin
  Wednesday, with the greatest chances for precipitation on
  Thursday (50 to 70 percent).

- Heading into the weekend, temperatures are favored to trend a
  bit warmer (highs in the 70s to around 80), along with
  continued chances (30 to 60 percent) for showers and
  thunderstorms.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 930 AM CDT Tue Jun 10 2025

Showers in the north have still not reached the ground with the
drier dew points and high cloud bases. The patchy fog in the
southeast has also burned off, now visibilities reductions will
be due to the wildfire smoke.

UPDATE
Issued at 629 AM CDT Tue Jun 10 2025

Some high clouds currently stream across the area, with some
weak radar returns in the northwest and south central. There
were a few upstream observations of precipitation (even one
flash of lightning), though the layer below these returns
remains fairly dry. While it`s unlikely there will be much
reaching the surface, we can`t rule out a few of them dropping a
couple raindrops. Otherwise, very patchy fog continues in the
James River Valley, expected to burn off in the next hour or
two.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 316 AM CDT Tue Jun 10 2025

This morning, high pressure has eased into the area, resulting
in generally clear skies and calm winds. Some scattered clouds
up in the north central had brought about a few weak radar
returns, with minimal precipitation reports. There have also
been some reports of patchy fog mixed in with some smoke due to
very weak southerly upslope flow, generally in the James River
Valley, where some visibilities have dropped to 2 to 4 miles.
The aforementioned clouds may help clear out some of this fog as
they move over the area, but its unsure if the clouds will make
it that far south. Aloft, a ridge to our west continues to
slowly build into the area, with flow shifting more
northwesterly, resulting in a dry and warm day today. Highs will
range from the mid 70s north to lower 80s south. A weak front
pushing through the area this morning will also lead to the
possibility for another round of surface smoke, spreading from
northwest to southeast through the day today. While visibility
reductions don`t appear to be as bad as the past couple pushes
of smoke, the smell and milky sky are likely to be present
again.

Tonight into Wednesday, flow aloft becomes more zonal/westerly.
A weak shortwave disturbance moving through the flow to our
south may bring some showers and possibly a thunderstorm to the
west, with chances in the 20 to 40 percent range. Shear will be
plentiful, but the ample instability axis will be just to our
west. While the far southwest does get clipped by a Marginal
Risk from the SPC, this is mostly just dependent on if a
stronger storm that forms across Montana is able to wander
across the border and carry its energy for a little bit. This
potential, however, is still very low. Temperatures also cool
slightly, into the mid 70s.

A more substantial wave is expected to push into the area on
Thursday, with widespread 50 to 70 percent chances for showers
and thunderstorms from early Thursday morning through early
Friday morning. This system is also expected to bring some
cooler air with it behind a cold front, with highs Thursday and
Friday only in the 60s. These cooler temperatures, however, may
also help hamper the severe chances for this system. There will
certainly be plenty shear, but instability will be limited due
to the cooler (albeit more moist) air moving into the area.
Thunder cannot be ruled out, but severe potential remains
minimal, but non-zero. There has been a slight increase in the
overall QPF forecast for this system though, especially across
the southwest, where a large swath of 40 to 50 percent chances
for at least a half inch of rain is present for Thursday. From
Friday onward, flow aloft continues to remain zonal, leaning
southwesterly at times. As a result, daily chances for showers
and thunderstorms will continue, along with a slight warming
trend. Generally southerly flow at the low levels will help
transport moisture northward in typical summertime fashion, also
leading to higher dewpoints and increased potential in
ingredients lining up for severe weather.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 629 AM CDT Tue Jun 10 2025

VFR conditions are present across the area. Winds are light and
variable apart from the northwest, where winds have already
increased in speed and prevailed out of the north. Winds will
shift northerly across the entire area by midday today, with
breezy winds around 15 kts expected north and east of the
Missouri River. By tonight, winds will calm once again. Near
surface smoke may also move into the area from the northwest
today, possibly reducing visibilities at times.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Smith
DISCUSSION...Besson
AVIATION...Besson/Smith