Carrington, North Dakota 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

052
FXUS63 KBIS 232359
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
559 PM CST Tue Dec 23 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Fog may develop later tonight lingering into the early
  morning. Fog may return again Wednesday evening.

- Temperature gradient remains over the area with highs through
  Friday generally near to below average north and east of the
  Missouri River (teens and 20s) to above average south and west
  of the river (30s and 40s).

- Low chances (20 to 30 percent) for light mixed precipitation
  on Christmas Day, mainly north and east.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 559 PM CST Tue Dec 23 2025

No significant changes needed to the going forecast. Latest
satellite imagery shows abundant high level clouds streaming
into the area from the west and southwest. At the surface, high
pressure over the eastern Dakotas and Minnesota will continue to
propagate to the east, with a light south to southeast surface
flow over western and central ND. Tonight, warm moist air will
continue to lift north into the local areas as surface low
pressure deepens in the lee of the northern and central Rockies
an into the High Plains. To the north, a weak surface high over
Canada propagates eastward, with a northerly surface flow
pushing into North Dakota, after midnight tonight. This
convergence zone will probably be the focus for low stratus and
fog development late tonight into Wednesday. CAM guidance has
backed off on the extent of low level moisture with successive
runs this afternoon, but eventually think we will see some
stratus/fog, but moreso around or after 12Z Wednesday, instead
of closer to 06Z as earlier guidance had suggested. Previous
forecast had this covered and will adjust accordingly if fog
does develop during the evening.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 313 PM CST Tue Dec 23 2025

Current surface analysis places low to the lee of the northern
Rockies, with high over Lake Winnipeg southward to central
Minnesota. Upper level analysis places very broad ridge
centered over the Rockies, with west-northwest flow over our
area. Speaking of our area, rather quiet weather remains with a
southeasterly light wind between the two surface systems.

For tonight, southeast winds go light tonight, but with some low
level moisture in place there will be the potential for fog
development as advertised by latest high-res modeling.

On Wednesday, quiet weather remains in place along with the
notable northeast to southwest temperature gradient where areas
northeast of the Missouri River will see highs in the teens and
20s, while far southwest North Dakota may see some low 40s.
Similar temperature patter remains in place through Friday,
though with a very modest warming trend. Fog may also redevelop
Wednesday night per latest guidance, lingering into Christmas
morning.

On Christmas Day, the first in a variety of weak short waves
pass through the area, bringing low precipitation chances (20-30
percent) mainly to northern portions of the area along with the
James River Valley. Temperatures profiles continue to suggest a
mixed bag of precipitation types being possible including snow,
sleet, or freezing rain. With that said, the NBM probability of
seeing even 0.01 inch of freezing rain remains quite low at 20
percent far northwest to 15 percent or less elsewhere.

The next chances for snow come Friday night through Saturday as
a clipper system slides through the area, though chances remain
at around 20 to 40 percent, highest north. Winds will turn
northwest and become gusty during the day on Saturday. With the
cold air pouring in, well below average temperatures expected
for Sunday.

Thereafter temperatures look to warm some, but high question as
to how much because NBM 25th/75th spreads for highs are ranging
around 15 to 20 degrees.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 559 PM CST Tue Dec 23 2025

VFR conditions to begin the 00Z TAF period, with low stratus and
fog possible late tonight into Wednesday.

Latest CAM guidance has seemed to back off, or delay the low
level moisture, compared to runs earlier today. NBM guidance
show the highest probability (50%) of MVFR ceilings at KXWA
towards 12Z Wednesday, with lowest probabilities at KDIK. KMOT,
KBIS and KJMS probabilities of MVFR ceilings are similar
(around 30-40%) but their probability of IFR and LIFR ceilings
are about as high as MVFR ceilings. For now we did introduce
some MVFR-IFR ceilings and visibilities but brought them in
later than earlier guidance suggests and for not as long as we
could have. Think eventually we will see low ceilings/fog but
not sure when and how extensive. Added some fog for a start and
will adjust as needed as we get closer to Wednesday morning.
Surface flow will be light southerly tonight turning northerly
Wednesday.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
DISCUSSION...JJS
AVIATION...TWH