Burlington, North Dakota 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

968
FXUS63 KBIS 132120
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
320 PM CST Tue Jan 13 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Light rain/snow chances return late this afternoon/evening
  with higher chances Thursday evening through Friday morning.
  The highest chances (60 to 80 percent) are along and east of
  Highway 83.

- Very windy conditions Thursday through Friday. Patchy to areas
  of blowing snow also possible.

- Well above average temperatures will generally continue
  through the middle of the week, with highs Wednesday more
  seasonable in the east.

- Late this week through this weekend, expect cooler
  temperatures with below average temperatures northeast to near
  average temperatures southwest.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 320 PM CST Tue Jan 13 2026

This morning`s rain showers in the southwest have mostly
diminished with some lingering clouds still in place. A backdoor
cold front will push across the CWA from northeast to southwest
this evening through tonight. Isolated light rain or snow
showers along with increased low level clouds will be found
along and behind this front. Perhaps some light freezing
rain/drizzle is also possible with this front as some soundings
indicate limited ice present aloft. For now confidence was only
high enough for slight PoPs of rain and snow through tonight.
Breezy northwest winds will also linger through this evening,
diminishing tonight, with some light and variable winds possible
by early Wednesday morning. Look for colder lows in the single
digits above and below zero east, to the 20s west. With the
mentioned light winds, perhaps some patchy fog is possible
tonight into Wednesday morning although the increased clouds
across the area are expected to limited fog formation. Front
stalls then lifts eastward on Wednesday. Look for lingering low
clouds across much of the area as a result. Flurries or perhaps
some freezing drizzle may also be found with these lingering low
clouds Wednesday, although lift in the lower levels looks to be
limited with surface high to the east of this boundary. Added in
some 10 percent pops, yet kept the forecast dry for now. Mild
temperatures in the 30s and 40s will continue across the west on
the warm side of this front, with 20s east of this front. Winds
will also be light and westerly for Wednesday. Surface trough
will push out the low clouds Wednesday night and bring an
increased westerly wind. Look for mainly dry conditions as well.
Low temperatures Wednesday night will be slightly warmer and
generally in the 20s to lower 30s.

A sharp northwest flow gradient then sets up for Thursday and
Friday with multiple waves expected to move through in the flow
along with a cold front on Thursday and another reinforcing cold
front on Friday. Main impacts from this pattern will be strong
winds both Thursday and Friday. Current NBM forecast has
widespread advisory level winds currently in place. There is
still potential for High Wind Warning level winds, although the
better cold air advection looks to come each morning and the
better pressure rises are not well aligned with this cold air
advection. ECMWF EFI values are still high with some small shift
of tails starting to show up. For now left NBM winds, and will
continue to monitor for any needed highlights. With these
mentioned disturbances will be chances for rain and snow
Thursday, changing to all snow Thursday night and lingering
chances through Friday. Accumulations for the two day event look
to overall be light, with NBM chances for more than an inch 10
to 50%. With the strong winds and falling snow there could be
some blowing snow concerns, especially in the east. Blowing snow
model showing 60% chance for advisory level impacts. The lack
of blowable snow and heavier falling snow may limit the blizzard
potential, although will be worth monitoring if higher snowfall
amounts are forecast. Mild high temperatures in the 30s to
lower 40s will remain on Thursday, cooling into the teens and
20s Friday. Lows will be in the single digits to teens, with
perhaps some below zero low temperatures Friday night into
Saturday morning. Some near cold weather advisory wind chills
will be possible in the east Friday night into Saturday.

Clusters then indicate northwest flow downstream of a large
ridge of high pressure could linger around through at least the
weekend. Temperature spreads still remain somewhat broad,
although most ensembles showing a gradient of cooler
temperatures northeast to near or perhaps slightly above normal
temperatures southwest, with a mix of near to cooler than normal
in-between. This will again depend on the placement of the
ridge to our west, hence some continued broad temperature ranges
in the NBM. Weak disturbances in this northwest flow could
provide for slight chances of snow, mainly on the cooler side of
the northwest flow. Breezy to windy northwest winds may also be
found at times. Right now the NBM and ECMWF EFI hinting the
windier day of the weekend coming on Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1207 PM CST Tue Jan 13 2026

VFR conditions becoming MVFR to IFR conditions are expected
during the forecast period. VFR conditions will be found through
today, with some light rain possible in the far southwest. This
evening through tonight, a backdoor cold front will bring lower
cloud ceilings and isolated to scattered rain and snow showers.
Confidence was not high enough to include precipitation mention.
Confidence was high enough to include MVFR to IFR ceilings in
most TAFs. Ceilings may then improve from west to east
Wednesday, although could still see MVFR to IFR conditions
through Wednesday morning. Breezy winds today will become light
and variable late tonight into Wednesday morning.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Anglin
AVIATION...Anglin