Winston-Salem, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

829
FXUS62 KRAH 051816
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
216 PM EDT Sun Apr 5 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 245 AM Sunday...

*  Forecast continues to trend colder for Wednesday morning.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 245 AM Sunday...

1) Scattered showers and a few strong to severe thunderstorms are
expected to develop across the region today as a cold front moves
through the Mid-Atlantic. A Marginal risk (Level 1 of 5) for severe
storms with damaging wind gusts remains for eastern half of NC.

2) Widespread frost possible for a majority of the NC Piedmont and
northern/central Coastal Plain Wed and Thur morning.

3) A prolonged period of dry to very dry conditions are expected Mon
through the remainder of the forecast period. Fire weather concerns
possible as early as Tues.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 245 AM Sunday...

KEY MESSAGE 1... Scattered showers and a few strong to severe
thunderstorms are expected to develop across the region today as a
cold front moves through the Mid-Atlantic. A Marginal risk (Level 1
of 5) for severe storms with damaging wind gusts remains for eastern
half of NC.

Most areas will see rainfall totals between 0.25" and
0.50", with localized areas seeing up to 0.75". This moisture is
welcome, as much of Central NC remains in a severe to extreme
drought. Latest model data is showing the morning starting off with
a band of rain over the western Piedmont, but as the boundary pushes
eastward through the day, the atmosphere is expected to become more
unstable, especially in the Coastal Plain region where storms could
become strong to severe.

Confidence is increasing for the window of strong to severe storms,
particularly for areas along and east of the US-1 corridor. With
afternoon heating maximized in the east, the potential for severe
storms along and east of I-95, where the most persistent sunshine
and heating are expected. This ample heating will provide the
necessary energy for storms to intensify as they move toward the
coast. The primary threat with these storms will be damaging wind
gusts, especially during the afternoon and early evening. Behind the
main line of storms, the actual cold front is expected to bring
another line of showers through the evening with cooler drier air
filtering in behind.

Temperatures today will be dictated by the timing of the rain;
expect the northwest Piedmont to stay in the upper 60s to low 70s,
while the Sandhills and Coastal Plain reach the mid-70s to low 80s.
Once the front passes tonight, temperatures will drop significantly,
reaching the mid-40s in the northwest to near 50 in the southeast.


KEY MESSAGE 2... Widespread frost possible for a majority of the NC
Piedmont and northern/central Coastal Plain Wed and Thur morning.

A modified Arctic surface high will shift across the Great Lakes on
Tues and likely push a reinforcing cold front through the Carolinas
Tues afternoon and evening. Given the tight pressure gradient and
likely continued shallow mixing throughout Tues night into Wed
morning, decoupling and radiational cooling is unlikely. However,
the air mass should be sufficiently cold with low-level thicknesses
expected to bottom out near 1305m, which is more typical for late
Jan and support temperatures in the low/mid 30s. Latest
probabilities from the NBM support widespread frost, especially
across a majority of the Piedmont and northern/central Coastal
Plains. Freezing conditions can`t be ruled out, but will depend on
how quickly this cold air can ooze into the region, but highest
confidence will be across the northern Piedmont outside of the urban
areas.


KEY MESSAGE 3 ... A prolonged period of dry to very dry conditions
are expected Mon through the remainder of the forecast period. Fire
weather concerns possible as early as Tues.

In the wake of the leading cold frontal passage Sun evening, a dry
air mass will be deposited over the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast. This
will be the first of two cold frontal passages as a reinforcing and
much drier Canadian air mass will spread into the Mid-Atlantic on
Tues. There is some uncertainty in how far south dew points in the
teens will spread behind this front due to timing/amplitude
differences of a low-amplitude short wave passing to our north
within the medium range guidance. Nevertheless, a prolonged period
of dry conditions appears likely with a high likelihood of RH below
40% each afternoon through at least the workweek as substantial
moisture return into the region will be delayed as high pressure
lingers over the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast coast.

The driest days will likely be Mon through Wed, especially over the
NC Piedmont where probabilities of RH < 30% range from 20-55%. A
fire weather risk may be curbed on Mon by a widespread wetting rain
on Sun, but may return by Tues dependent on the amount of rain that
falls in a given area. Greatest wind gusts (15-25 kts) are expected
Tues and Wed as the reinforcing Canadian high builds across the Mid-
Atlantic and the pressure gradient tightens.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 215 PM Sunday...

A band of pre-frontal convection, extending at 18Z from near IXA to
RWI to CTZ, will probably continue to intensify and favor 35-50 kt
surface wind gusts as it progresses through a further diurnally-
destabilizing environment over ern NC. A mix of less vigorous
convection and stratiform rain with temporary flight restrictions,
and also gusty swly surface winds, will otherwise continue
throughout cntl NC along and ahead of a couple of cold fronts that
will progress sewd and across the forecast area through this
evening. A short period of nwly gustiness to around 30 kts will be
possible as the initial surge of cooler and drier post-frontal air
arrives this evening, with surface winds otherwise around 10 kts or
less through the end of the 18Z TAF period.

Outlook: A couple of areas of continental Polar high pressure, and
associated dry air, will favor VFR conditions in cntl NC through the
upcoming week.


&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CA/AS
AVIATION...MWS