Wilmington, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

341
FXUS62 KILM 282336
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
736 PM EDT Sun Jun 28 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Updated 00Z aviation discussion.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- A few severe thunderstorms are possible into this evening.

- Hot and humid conditions build back in by mid week
with dangerous heat possible especially towards the end of the week.

- Low risk for tropical/subtropical cyclone
development off the southeast U.S. coast mid week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...A few severe thunderstorms are possible into
this evening.

Isolated activity is popping up west of I-95 with a larger line
forming in western SC/NC associated with an incoming trough. The
seabreeze will continue to push inland which could enhance this
activity, with the trough/front moving through this evening. All of
these boundaries paired with marginal shear could result in local
enhancement of storms. The main threat will be isolated damaging
winds due to wet downbursts or more organized clusters as shear
increases late in the day. Activity should be offshore by midnight.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Hot and humid conditions build back in by mid week
with dangerous heat possible especially towards the end of the week.

Building high pressure paired with dry conditions will lead to a
long string of hot weather mid week onwards as heat indices rise
into the hundreds. Heat Advisories are possible as early as Thursday
but more likely Friday/Saturday where Extreme Heat Warnings are
possible for coastal counties. Sunday introduces some uncertainty
with an increase in shower/storm chances but for now coverage seems
too low to make a dent in the heat.

Check out our heat page (weather.gov/ilm/heat) for more heat
forecast/safety info.

KEY MESSAGE 3...Low risk for tropical/subtropical cyclone
development off the southeast U.S. coast mid week.

The front moving through today will stall to our south where an area
of low pressure is expected to form along it either Monday or
Tuesday, mainly south of SE NC & NE SC. The system may develop
tropical characteristics as it drifts toward the west through mid-
week before conditions become less favorable for development towards
the end of the week. The NHC is highlighting a low chance for
tropical/subtropical development with a low risk of any significant
direct impacts to SE NC & NE SC at this time.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Decaying storms currently affecting FLO/LBT will move east
during the next few hours. Convection will weaken as it moves
east, with the environment becoming a bit more stable. Still
potential for visibility and ceiling restrictions at
CRE/ILM/MYR through 03Z, but impact at any one site will be
short lived.

Cold front will push south across the area overnight with high
pressure building in from the north. Can`t rule out low stratus
moving in from the north during the predawn hours, but all
indications are MVFR ceilings would remain north of ILM/LBT. Some
suggestion of potential for isolated convection along the NC
coast Mon afternoon as weak low level convergence develops under
a shortwave, mainly for ILM, but confidence is low. Winds will
be out of the north following the front with speeds under 10 kt.

Extended Forecast...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Monday Night through Friday...A cold front moves through tonight
into Monday with high pressure setting up inland leading to NE flow
(becoming more easterly in the afternoons) through Wednesday. Along
the front that stalls to our south a low could form early in the
week, with a low chance of it becoming a tropical/subtropical system
while it remains over water. The low moves away and the high becomes
more diffuse by mid week with winds becoming more southerly. Seas
largely 2-4 ft across the waters.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ106-
     108.
SC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for SCZ054-
     056.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

WHAT HAS CHANGED...ILM
KEY MESSAGES...LEW
DISCUSSION...LEW
AVIATION...III
MARINE...LEW