Wilmington, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

125
FXUS62 KILM 130953
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
553 AM EDT Wed Aug 13 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure to the east will produce more typical hot and
humid summertime conditions with afternoon and early evening
thunderstorms through mid to late week. A weak cold front should
drop down through the Eastern Carolinas Friday into the weekend
bringing relatively drier weather with fewer thunderstorms.
Another cold front may approach from the north early next week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Convection to the NW is approaching the area a little faster
than previously expected so we did a quick update to add small
chances of convection to NW areas this morning.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Warm humid air will remain in place over the area into tonight but
model guidance showing less forcing available than in previous days.
However, lingering trough inland, sea breeze, and ongoing convection
over western NC should act as focus for convection.  Greatest
potential looks to be northern areas. Highs today should reach the
upper 80s to lower 90s which could yield heat index values
approaching 105 southern areas. Lows tonight will fall to the mid to
upper 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Unsettled weather will be most prevalent through the short term
period as PWATs remain 2"+ and periodic shortwaves could move
through aloft enhancing coverage. Best timing for showers and storms
should be the afternoon/evening hours. Thursday could see the
potential of some heavier rainfall in stronger storms with general
amounts around a quarter of an inch but isolated amounts of 0.5-1.5"
possible. Friday should be a tad drier away from the coast. Highs
near normal and lows in the lower to mid 70s. A surface cold front
may approach or stall just north of the area towards the end of the
period with drier air behind it.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Aforementioned high pressure will build in from the NW through the
weekend leading to a gradually drying column and lower diurnal
shower/storm coverage as well as rainfall totals. Highs look to
remain about where they have been with a slight warm up into early
next week as another cold front will approach from well to our north.

As for Tropical Storm Erin the current track has it moving westward
towards the Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico through
the end of the work week. After that we`re at the mercy of the
models which for now seem to agree that it will stay offshore as it
approaches the Southeast coast into mid week. Typically with
offshore systems we experience longer period swells that can enhance
rip current activity, so for now this is what we could start having
to deal with early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Overall, expect mainly VFR conditions through the valid taf period
but there are a couple caveats.  First, low clouds and fog need to
lift/burn off where present.  Expect terminals to all be VFR by
about 16Z.  Scattered showers and storms, mainly this afternoon into
evening, could result in brief MVFR/IFR conditions at area
terminals. It is possible we could see a repeat of low clouds and
fog again tonight, mainly inland, but confidence is too low for
inclusion in terminals attm.

Extended Outlook...Periodic flight restrictions are expected with
convection each afternoon and evening. Fog and low stratus could
also cause brief restrictions each morning as transition back to a
more typical summer-like weather pattern starting mid to late this
week. Unsettled weather may return this weekend behind a stalled
offshore frontal boundary.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Tonight...expect SW winds of 15 KT or less through the
period with seas generally running 2 to 3 FT.

Thursday through Saturday...SW flow ~15 kts will become more on
shore Friday as a front moves through. NE winds will build in for
Saturday ~10-15 kts. Waves will be generally 2-3 ft. With regards to
Tropical Storm Erin, on the current track longer period swells ~16
seconds could make it to our coastal waters early next week.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...31
NEAR TERM...31
SHORT TERM...LEW
LONG TERM...LEW
AVIATION...31
MARINE...LEW/31