Statesville, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

917
FXUS62 KGSP 230533
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1233 AM EST Mon Feb 23 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Rain and thunderstorm chances increasing for another system toward
the end of the week.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1. Snow with gusty NW winds continue across portions of the
mountains near the NC/TN border through tonight, with below normal
temperatures through Tuesday. Impacts from the snow could create
hazardous travel conditions in these locations.
2. Near-critical fire weather conditions are expected each
afternoon through Tuesday.
3. Temperatures warm throughout the week, with a cold front
increasing rain and possible thunderstorm chances across the area
early Thursday into Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Key message 1: Snow with gusty NW winds continue across portions of
the mountains near the NC/TN border through tonight, with below
normal temperatures through Tuesday. Impacts from the snow could
create hazardous travel conditions in these locations.

The increasing surface pressure gradient between the low pressure
system to the north and the strong surface high building into the
central CONUS, keeps gusty NW winds and snowfall for a portion of
the mountains through tonight. The ongoing Winter Weather Advisory
and Winter Storm Warning remain in effect through 12 AM Tuesday.
Wind gusts look to be below any advisory criteria, especially below
3500`. However, wind gusts above 3500` are likely to have gusts of
45-55mph, which were mentioned in the ongoing products. As the low
and trough continue to pull away from the region today, expect winds
to diminish tonight. Strong winds across the Upstate of SC and NC
Piedmont of 20-30 mph still on track for this afternoon, but remain
below any wind advisory criteria. As for accumulating snowfall at
the NC/TN border, an additional 1-4 inches possible with 4-7 inches
at the highest peaks through late this evening, especially for
locations above 3500`. Latest guidance does indicate the snow
tapering off through this evening.

Additionally, another round of frigid wind chills tonight, though
not as cold as this morning as winds are expected to drastically
decrease overnight. For the mountains, wind chills into the single
digits and east of the mountains should be in the upper teens and
lower 20s. By Tuesday morning, these temps should rebound a bit and
warm into the upper 40s and lower 50s, with a few locations in the
mountains still clinging to colder temps.


Key message 2: Near-critical fire weather conditions are expected each
afternoon through Tuesday.

Sustained winds out of the NW of 15 to 25 mph, with gusts generally
in the 40-50 mph range are expected across the mountains through
late this afternoon before diminishing overnight. Locations east of
the mountains are expected to see near-critical RH of 25-30% this
afternoon. These conditions elevate the fire danger, especially
across the foothills, where a wetting rainfall failed to occur
Sat/Sat night.

For Tuesday, widespread critical RH of 15-20% is expected across
most of the area. Unlike Monday, winds should be considerably weaker
and out of the SW at 5-10 mph. Despite less winds, the fire danger
continues to be elevated mostly for locations east of the NC
counties bordering TN, where at least some snowpack is expected to
linger into Tuesday. Though the overall fire danger will be
elevated, below-normal temperatures could be a limiting factor.


Key message 3: Temperatures warm throughout the week, with a cold
front increasing rain and possible thunderstorm chances across the
area early Thursday into Friday.

Guidance continues to signal for a short wave trough swinging
through the area by the end of the week, increasing shower and
possibly thunderstorm chances. By Thursday, guidance depicts a
developing surface low moving northeast, dragging a robust cold
front across the TN/Ohio Valley and into the CWA. How much of this
FROPA survives the mountains is yet to be determined. Current
guidance swings it through Thursday night and into Friday morning,
but this could change. As of the current trends, the likelihood of
this system bringing at least 1" of rainfall has increased 60-70%,
mainly for the far western NC mountains. As far as thunderstorm
potential, one limiting factor at this point is timing of the front
moving through overnight. This keeps instability very low if not
nonexistent. Current probs has about a 20-30% chance of at least 50
J/KG of sbCAPE overnight, mainly east of the mountains and closer to
the SC/GA border. This is a slight increase in probs from previous
forecasts, but confidence remains low for any severe potential.
Cannot rule out a rumble of thunder or higher convective rain rates,
but this will continue to be monitored.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: The main problem for the overnight and early
Monday will be the ongoing light snow at KAVL. Satellite and radar
imagery show a decent streamer of light reflectivity and cold cloud
tops more or less oriented with the French Broad Valley. Beneath
this streamer, light snow continues to fall, restricting the vis to
MVFR-levels, while the ceiling was bouncing up and down either side
of the 030 threshold. See no reason why this shouldn`t continue well
into the pre-dawn hours, so prevailing MVFR will be carried for the
snow. Elsewhere...a few snow flurries would not be a surprise, but
not to the extent that it would be restrictive. Instead, scattered
high-based stratocu will be possible, but a gusty NW wind will
be more of a concern. VFR at all other terminals. There is some
indication of orographic wave cirrus Monday afternoon across the
western Piedmont. The gusty NW winds will finally relax after
sunset on Monday.

Outlook: Quiet weather returns to the region for Tuesday and
Wednesday. Another low pressure system will approach the area on
Thursday, bringing showers and associated restrictions.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...Winter Storm Warning until midnight EST tonight for NCZ033-050.
     Winter Weather Advisory until midnight EST tonight for
     NCZ048>052.
SC...None.

&&

$$

CP/PM