Statesville, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

694
FXUS62 KGSP 231812
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
212 PM EDT Mon Jun 23 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
The heat and humidity will remain elevated through mid-week as a hot
upper ridge dominates the eastern United States. Isolated showers
and thunderstorms will remain possible each afternoon and evening
through Tuesday, mainly across the mountains. The upper ridge will
begin to break down after Wednesday as an upper disturbance brings
increased shower and thunderstorm chances to the area for the latter
half of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 150 pm Monday: Stacked anticyclone centered over the
Mid-Atlantic this afternoon is expected to drift S/SW through
the period as heights fall from the Great Lakes through New
England. This will keep conditions hot and generally suppressed for
convection. Surface-based CAPE is currently being analyzed at 2000-
3000 J/kg across the CWA this afternoon, and ridge top cumulus is
gradually becoming agitated...so we are still expecting some
convection to fire over the high terrain this afternoon...but PoPs
are mainly in the slight chance (10-20%) range. Muggy and very warm
conditions are expected tonight...with min temps of 5-7 degrees
above climo expected. Areas of fog/low stratus will again
develop...mainly in the lower mtn valleys.

Progged thickness values support a continuation of the
heating trend on Tuesday, and max temps are expected to be
2-3 warmer than today...resulting in widespread upper 90s
east of the mountains...with at least isolated instances of
100 likely. Meanwhile, while forecast soundings depict deep
mixing during the afternoon...there is also an elevated moisture
source near the top of the mixed layer...lowering the potential
for decreasing dewpoints during the hottest part of the day. As
such...generally expect surface dewpoints to remain in the upper
60s in most locations, and this will result in widespread heat
index values of 105-110 across the Piedmont and foothills.  A Heat
Advisory will therefore be issued for these areas. Otherwise,
another round of isolated diurnal convection is expected over
the mountains.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 145 PM EDT Monday:

Upper anticylcone will be firmly in place as we start the short term
with hot and humid conditions across the area. Another day of
afternoon highs a good 10 or so degrees above seasonal normals and
dewpoints supportive of heat indices above 100 across all the
Piedmont, and above 105 in the Charlotte Metro and the Upper
Savannah Valley. For the NW Piedmont and GSP Metro, a little less
confident on dewpoints, given forecast soundings showing deep mixing
to 800mb, but current dewpoint trends are running fairly on track
with NBM and so less confident that there is need to undercut NBM as
much as in previous forecasts. Given the need to issue the near-term
heat advisory, likely need for advisory conditions for a chunk of
the area Wednesday, and collaboration with neighbors, felt it
prudent to go ahead and extend the advisory through Wednesday
afternoon even with the uncertainty that the entire Piedmont will
reach criteria.

All that said, upper weakness over the Western Atlantic shifts west
over the Southeast/FL Peninsula on Wednesday, working to begin
breaking down the upper ridge and bringing additional moisture into
the area. So even with the heat advisory, expect enhanced diurnal
pops, with likelies over the mountains. Surface thermodynamics
aligned with incoming vort max may allow for isolated strong to
severe, with wet microbursts the main threat. SPC Marginal for Day 3
seems reasonable. Enhanced diurnal coverage continues on Thursday as
waves of moisture rotate around the upper weakness and spread across
the southeast, and reduced insolation brings high temperatures down
to the mid 90s (hey, we celebrate the small victories here). Will
see the same trend in reduction of overnight lows but still >70
degrees so not much recovery to speak of, so the cumulative heat
effects will still compound.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 200 PM EDT Monday:

Upper weakness remains over the Southeast as we move into the
extended, drifting north and cutting into the ridge. General
thickness pattern still remains high however so even with some
reduction of temperatures, they still remain above normal...just
only a couple of degrees instead of 7-10 degrees. With increasing
deep-layer moisture associated with the disturbance, convective
chances increase through the extended, especially over the weekend.
With such warm temperatures, enough SBCAPE can be expected that
allow for isolated wet microbursts, as well as heavy rain leading to
isolated flash flooding.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: VFR conditions are forecast to persist
through the period under hot/humid conditions. Convection this
afternoon (and tomorrow afternoon) is expected to be even more
spotty than the past couple of days while again being mainly
confined to the mountains. No mention of convection is therefore
warranted. The potential for daybreak fog/low stratus may be a bit
higher at KHKY and KAVL on Tue in comparison with the past couple
of days...but will opt for persistence for now...with restrictions
being confined to the valleys west of KAVL. Winds will be variable
in direction and generally light through the period, but are
expected to become mainly NE at around 5 kts after sunrise Tue.

Outlook: A return to more scattered to numerous diurnal showers
and storms is expected beginning Wednesday and continuing thru the
end of the workweek.  Fog and/or low stratus will be possible each
morning in the usual mtn valleys and near lakes and rivers.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORDS FOR 06-23

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAVL      93 2016     64 1936     70 2017     47 1947
                1988
   KCLT     100 2015     63 1936     77 2016     53 1947
   KGSP      99 1988     70 1900     75 2016     54 1972
                1944                                1947



RECORDS FOR 06-24

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAVL      94 1952     66 1991     70 2015     48 1947
                            1919                    1918
   KCLT     102 1930     68 1936     76 1998     55 1972
                                        1914        1936
   KGSP     100 1952     64 1936     76 2016     51 1915



RECORDS FOR 06-25

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAVL      96 1952     63 1889     69 1949     45 1972
                                        1943
                                        1891
   KCLT     102 1914     70 1980     75 1952     53 1889
                            1915        1914
                            1889
   KGSP     101 1952     69 1980     75 1931     52 1972
                                        1925



RECORDS FOR 06-26

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAVL      96 1948     65 1961     69 1952     49 1984
                                                    1974
   KCLT     102 1952     68 1965     78 1948     55 1979
   KGSP     100 1952     71 1991     77 1952     55 1979
                1934                                1974
                1914

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...Heat Advisory from noon Tuesday to 8 PM EDT Wednesday for
     GAZ018-026-028-029.
NC...Heat Advisory from noon Tuesday to 8 PM EDT Wednesday for
     NCZ035>037-056-057-068>072-082-501>510.
SC...Heat Advisory from noon Tuesday to 8 PM EDT Wednesday for
     SCZ008>014-019-101>109.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AR/TDP
NEAR TERM...JDL
SHORT TERM...TDP
LONG TERM...TDP
AVIATION...JDL
CLIMATE...