Sanford, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

131
FXUS62 KRAH 101442
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
1040 AM EDT Tue Jun 10 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak front across Virginia and the western Carolinas will hold
fairly steady through Thursday, before washing out on Friday.
Bermuda high pressure will then build over and off the Carolina
coast into early next week, bringing warm and humid conditions.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1040 AM Tuesday...

* Mostly dry conditions through the noon hour will be followed by
  increasing chances for showers and storms, peaking late afternoon
  through mid evening.

The early-morning stratus which covered much of the CWA is finally
fracturing, particularly in the NW CWA, although high clouds
continue to stream over the area. GOES WV imagery shows a few
interesting features, including a vorticity max over E-central GA
which is helping to fuel a cluster of strong storms tracking NE over
E SC (along a tight SBCAPE gradient), and a weak MCV over NE AL. Our
area remains in a deep SW flow through the low and mid levels, ahead
of the approaching longwave trough that will continue to steadily
dampen today as it drifts NE. The surface front, meanwhile, is
analyzed across central VA into north-central and western NC, with
slightly lower dewpoints having worked into the N Foothills/
Piedmont. SW surface flow persists ahead of the front, where PWs
hold a bit above normal. As the mid level trough axis drifts E to
the spine of the Appalachians through tonight, our mid level flow
will slowly weaken, but we`ll see an uptick in forcing for ascent
later today with the arrival of modest DPVA aloft and weak upper
divergence, occurring with increasing SBCAPE in our area to 1500-
2000 J/kg. Effective bulk shear is marginal at 25-30 kts, and this
should largely hold with a small decrease later today. DCAPE should
rise later today but should remain under 1000 J/kg, and with the
clouds helping to curb surface heating and evidence of some warmer
air aloft on 12z area soundings, our thermodynamic and kinematic
parameters are generally less favorable for any severe storms today
compared to yesterday. Regarding convection pattern and timing, the
storm cluster over SE SC, and/or outflow-driven convection ahead of
it, will likely spread at least partially into our SE and far E
early to mid afternoon. Meanwhile, despite slightly lower dewpoints
in our W, the heating combined with the approaching MCV should
support a second area of showers and storms moving into our western
areas by mid afternoon. These two main areas of precip will likely
congeal over the CWA, with a net result that at least scattered
storms are possible areawide today, although it won`t be
raining/storming all the time. Pops should decrease W to E late this
evening through tonight, as these shortwave troughs in the mean
longwave trough base shift to our NE and NNE overnight amidst
decreasing and flattening flow aloft, with slowly decreasing CAPE
and an eastward nudge of the higher PWs. Isolated high rain totals
are possible later today, given a steepening LCL-0C depth and
potential for training discrete cells. Based on the current temp
trends and expected cloud cover, have nudged temps down slightly
today, still highs mostly in the mid 80s. Lows tonight will be in
the mid 60s to lower 70s. -GIH

Previous discussion from 345 AM: Marginal Risk for severe storms
this afternoon and evening. A deep mid level trough will move across
the TN and OH valleys today then slightly weaken as it moves across
the Mid-Atlantic region this afternoon and evening. At the surface a
cold front slowly progresses east through the day, showers and
storms are expected to develop again ahead and along the boundary.
Hi-Res model data shows most of today to be dry with the increase
chance of storms early this afternoon in the NW Piedmont and
expanding east through the late afternoon and evening hours. There
is good instability along with moisture, therefore SPC has all of
the CWA in a Marginal Risk for severe storms today. Most of the
storms are expected to be sub severe, but a few stronger storms
within the main line could produce damaging wind gusts. Most models
are showing the line/cluster of storms progress east across the
Triad region between in late afternoon early evening and then across
the Triangle region and Coastal Plain during the evening and early
overnight hours.  The frontal boundary could stall across the
Sandhills and Coastal Plain region, thus kept in a 20-30% PoP for
the SE region through early Wednesday morning. Temperatures ahead of
the front will be warm and muggy with highs in the mid/upper 80s and
lows in the upper 60s to low 70s.


&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 345 AM Tuesday...

The deamplifying upper trough will shift east of the area on
Wednesday. A cold front will slip into the area from the west, but
models continue to trend westward with where it eventually hangs up,
likely over the coastal plain.

Drier air will filter into the western Piedmont and higher PW
greater than 1.5" will be shunted east toward the coast.  The
frontal zone and seabreeze should be the main triggers for
convection.  Dewpoints in the the upper 60s favor higher CAPE in the
coastal plain as well. Weaker deep layer wind fields favor more
pulse storms and a primary threat of damaging winds.

Highs will be near normal - 86-88. Lows 66-70

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 345 AM Tuesday... Hartfield The frontal zone over eastern NC
will essentially wash out as high pressure shifts across the area
and then off the Southeast coast by the end of the week.  This will
establish a Bermuda high and southerly return flow across the area
through the weekend.  A shortwave or weak cut off low over the
southern plains is forecast to lift to toward the OH Valley and
central Appalachians by early next week.

Warm moist return flow is forecast to bring an anomalously moist
airmass (150-200 % of normal) across the region, which will result
in a marked increase in storm chances Fri-Mon, with guidance
indicating 50-70% chances each day. We will lean toward the lower
end of probabilities given lack of larger forcing and convection
should be diurnal most days.  WPC 7 day QPF suggests near to above
normal precipitation.

Highs will continue to run within a few degrees of normal in the mid
and 80s, with lows in the lower 70s.

 &&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 700 AM Tuesday...

A few showers across the southeastern portion of the CWA this
morning is dissipating as most of the shower/storm activity stays
along the coast.  Low stratus and patchy fog resulting in LIFR
conditions around the Triad are expected to lift and become MVFR
later this morning as the sunrises and help mix out these low
clouds/fog. While skies are not expected to fully clear out today,
expect MVFR and VFR conditions ahead of the incoming frontal
passage. Ahead of the front, a line of showers and storms will move
across the region late this afternoon and evening. Tried to time out
the lowering of ceilings and TSRA at each TAF site, but generally
expect the Triad sites to see sub-VFR conditions early this
afternoon, and the eastern TAF sites late afternoon into the evening
hours. After which VFR conditions are expected to return overnight.
However another round of MVFR to IFR conditions are possible in the
morning with fog and low stratus.

Outlook: VFR conditions should return for the day Wednesday. Diurnal
afternoon thunderstorms return Thursday and will continue each
afternoon and evening into the weekend. There will be potential for
late night and early morning fog and low stratus restrictions each
day especially where it rains.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Hartfield
NEAR TERM...Hartfield/CA
SHORT TERM...BLS
LONG TERM...BLS
AVIATION...CA