Salisbury, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

875
FXUS62 KGSP 142259
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
659 PM EDT Thu Aug 14 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Abundant moisture over the Southeast will keep scattered to numerous
showers with mainly afternoon thunderstorms through Friday. As a
somewhat shallow upper ridge continues over our region during the
weekend and early next week, temperatures remain near normal.
Afternoon thunderstorms become more isolated to scattered from
Sunday into early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 106 PM EDT Thursday...

Key Messages:

1) A weak cold front crosses the area today, spurring a round of
convection with potential to cause isolated nuisance flooding.

2) Muggy weather continues, with a little relief expected tomorrow
behind the front.

Largely quiet conditions at the moment.  Patchy fog and low
stratus was less pronounced this morning than previous mornings,
and has largely scattered out at this point in time, leaving behind
partly sunny skies and a developing cumulus field across most of the
Upstate and NC mountains.  Remnants of morning rainfall we received
several hours ago are now well east of the I-77 corridor...leaving
us dry, for the moment.  Temperatures are on track to climb near
or slightly cooler than yesterday`s highs...which is to say they`ll
be near normal.

A cold front presently draped across the Ohio Valley and extending
into the Mid-Atlantic will sag south through the forecast
period...within an otherwise unperturbed upper pattern.  A z500
trough axis will steadily track eastward from its current position
in eastern Texas through the day, but will not arrive in the
Tennessee Valley until early Friday...so outside of the advancing
front, there`ll be little forcing to trigger convective initiation.
Like the previous few days, CAMs indicate that convection will
begin on ridgetops in the NC mountains, then make a run at the
low terrain, expanding into the Upstate and Foothills before
collapsing farther east.  Broken record here to say...that it
still appears severe risk is low given an unimpressive parameter
space with poor lapse rates, sbCAPE < 2000 J/kg, and insignificant
dCAPE...and heavy rainfall is more of a concern.  Even then, heavy
rainfall shouldn`t be as big of an issue today given overall less
shower/storm coverage than previous days, and less potential for
training as storms generally follow the advancing frontal boundary.

Tonight, subsidence behind the front will bring a swift end
to convection, as well as inhibit the chances of low stratus
development outside the mountains.  Skies should remain mostly
clear overnight, while winds turn out of the NNW.  Fog and low
stratus are still expected in the mountains.  Little change is
expected to dewpoints despite the front; modest drop in dewpoints
can be expected during the afternoon Friday owing to subtle drying
aloft behind the front...but profiles will overall be too moist for
much dewpoint reduction due to mixing.  Temperatures, meanwhile,
will actually climb a category warmer than today, as low-level
thicknesses subtly increase over the area.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 125 pm Thursday: Saturday will be a bit of a transitional
period for the Southeast, as it will be the last day before the
subtropical ridge truly becomes the dominant synoptic weather
feature for the region. Strong insolation and abundant low
level moisture is forecast to yield robust instability during
the afternoon, with forecast soundings featuring low LFCs in an
uncapped environment. As such, at least climatological coverage of
diurnal showers and storms is expected in our area, with scattered-
to-numerous coverage (50-60 PoPs) forecast over the mountains and
generally widely scattered activity expected across the remainder of
the CWA. Instability is expected to be adequate to support a few
strong-to-marginally severe pulse storms. By Sunday, the ridge axis
extending from the upper anticyclone centered over the mid-Miss
Valley is expected to nudge into the southern Appalachians and
vicinity, resulting in increasingly warm and suppressed forecast
profiles. This should result in considerably less coverage of
convection Sunday afternoon/evening...and small PoPs of 20-30% are
confined to the mountains south of I-40. Max temps are forecast to
be around normal through the weekend, with min temps expected to be
a couple of degrees above normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 140 pm Thursday: The axis of an upper ridge will remain
over the forecast area through roughly the first half of the
extended, resulting in seasonably hot conditions, with generally
slightly-above normal temps forecast through the first half of
the period. The first couple of days of the work week are also
expected to be relatively inactive convectively speaking, with at
most isolated-to-widely scattered activity forecast each day. By
the middle of the week, heights are forecast to begin falling
slightly across the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic, as a series of
short wave troughs progress across southern Canada and the far
northern Conus. This will allow for a slight cool down by Thursday
(temps slightly below climo) along with increasing chances for
diurnal convection. PoPs will generally range in the 50-60% range
over the mountains Wed and Thu, with general 30-40% probabilities
over the Piedmont and foothills.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: A few scattered showers and an isolated storm
continue to linger across the area early this evening. Activity
should dissipate shortly after sunset with a rather quiet overnight
otherwise. Patchy fog cannot be ruled out at any given terminal, but
confidence remains low outside of KAVL and potentially KHKY.
Tomorrow will be similar with another round of scattered afternoon
and early evening thunderstorms. Winds will be light and variable
through the period.

Outlook: Afternoon showers and thunderstorms with associated
restrictions are expected across the area through the weekend.
Morning fog and low stratus are also possible, especially across
the mountain valleys.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...MPR
SHORT TERM...JDL
LONG TERM...JDL
AVIATION...TW