Salisbury, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

200
FXUS62 KGSP 290642
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
242 AM EDT Mon Jun 29 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Updated the aviation discussion for the 06Z TAFs.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1. Lingering showers and thunderstorms overnight, mainly west of
I-26, with mountain valley fog possible by daybreak. Another round
of showers and thunderstorms west of I-26 possible this afternoon
and evening, with one or two storms potentially becoming strong
to severe.
2. Heat risk will steadily increase through this week, with heat
indices likely exceeding 100 degrees across much of the Piedmont
and foothills, especially by mid to late week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Key message 1: Lingering showers and thunderstorms overnight, mainly
west of I-26, with mountain valley fog possible by daybreak. Another
round of showers and thunderstorms west of I-26 possible this
afternoon and evening, with one or two storms potentially becoming
strong to severe.

A few showers and thunderstorms have moved across the Smokies
and southwest mountains of NC. CAMs have hinted at this
activity continuing to push further south into portions of
the western Upstate and northeast Georgia. Not expecting any
of the convection to become strong to severe with the lost of
diurnal instability, but will be heavy rainfall producers which
could lead to localized ponding on roadways and a sudden rise in
creeks and streams. However, the hydro threat is very low as the
overall storm motion is fast enough to keep the heavy rainfall
moving. Very saturated low-levels and locations that received
appreciable rainfall yesterday should promote fog/low stratus
development. Confidence is low as to whether or not any dense fog
forms, but will need to monitor through the overnight period.

Continued northwest flow aloft thanks to a deepening upper-level
ridge to the west and the presence of a weak frontal boundary
draped along the I-26 corridor, isolated convective initiation
is possible during peak heating west of I-26. CAMs vary as far as
coverage and intensity, but deep moisture (PWAT >1.50"), sufficient
SBCAPE (2000-3000 J/kg), and 20-30 kts of 0-6 km bulk shear on the
west side of the boundary suggests that the environment could be
enough to support loosely organized convection capable of a strong
to severe thunderstorm or two, producing damaging winds. Guidance
continues to pinpoint the western Upstate as having the highest
probability of a severe storm, but can`t be ruled out elsewhere west
of I-26. Afternoon highs are forecast to run a category or so above
normal, with the southern tier of the CWFA potentially exceeding
100 degree heat indices before any afternoon convection arrives.


Key message 2: Heat risk will steadily increase through this week,
with heat indices likely exceeding 100 degrees across much of the
Piedmont and foothills, especially by mid to late week.

An upper-level ridge will strengthen across the eastern CONUS this
week, bringing a steady warming trend and suppressing convective
coverage. High temperatures are expected to climb into the lower
to mid 90s east of the mountains today and Tuesday, with values
running 5-10 degrees above normal by mid to late week and the
Independence Day Holiday Weekend.

Heat index values may approach or exceed 100 degrees starting
today through Wednesday, with possible Heat Advisory criteria
by Thursday into the holiday weekend. Confidence in exact heat
values remain somewhat limited due to uncertainty in afternoon
dewpoints potentially mixing out with notable subsidence in the
vertical column as heat index values are highly sensitive to
dewpoint values. With the ridge in place, convective coverage
will be reduced as most activity becomes isolated to scattered
and stays mostly confined to mountains during each afternoon and
evening, with very isolated instances of convection east of the
mountains. Current guidance suggests the synoptic pattern causing
the potential prolonged heat could persist through the holiday
weekend with little indication of significant relief. While
Heat Index for the next couple of days is forecast to be at
least several degrees below Advisory criteria, values of around
or slightly below 105 are expected to creep into Elbert County,
Georgia this afternoon. In collaboration with NWS FFC, Elbert Co
will be included in a Heat Advisory. Heat Advisories are likely
to continue through the week, while gradually expanding in coverage.

Those with outdoor plans, including holiday and recreation, should
prepare for several days of elevated heat risk. Stay hydrated,
take frequent breaks in air-conditioned or shaded areas, and never
leave children or pets unattended in vehicles.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: Mostly VFR conditions expected through the
forecast period outside of potential mountain valley fog/low stratus
and associated restrictions with any showers and thunderstorms that
develop. Kept the MVFR vsby and IFR cig TEMPO mention at KAVL from
08Z through 12Z, while removing any mention of fog/low stratus
elsewhere as confidence is too low for a TAF mention. Winds are
generally light and variable through daybreak and pick up out of
the northeast during the daytime period, while KAVL maintains a
north to northwesterly component through the period, with possible
low-end gusts (18-22 kts) during peak heating. Guidance continues
to develop showers and thunderstorms over the western half of
the area, with the best chance of any shower or thunderstorm
mention with associated restrictions remaining over KAND and
KAVL. Placed a PROB30 for TSRA at KAND and a VCSH mention at KAVL
as a result. Lingering convective debris and afternoon cu will
keep low VFR cigs in place during the afternoon, but should scatter
by this evening into the overnight hours tonight.

Outlook: Diurnal showers and thunderstorms are expected mainly
across the mountains through the workweek. Mountain valley fog/low
stratus will be possible each morning.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORDS FOR 07-02

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAVL      93 1970     65 1943     70 2018     44 1988
                1954
                1931
   KCLT     101 1931     64 1943     76 1991     56 2008
                                        1970
                                        1931
   KGSP     101 1954     66 1943     77 1931     53 1899



RECORDS FOR 07-03

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAVL      93 1970     65 1988     70 2018     50 2008
                1897                    1931        1937
                                                    1932
   KCLT      99 1931     70 1988     76 1925     56 2010
   KGSP      99 2016     70 1988     77 1925     56 1984
                1970
                1953



RECORDS FOR 07-04

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAVL      97 1948     68 1976     70 2016     51 1986
   KCLT      99 1993     70 1968     76 1993     55 1933
                1955
   KGSP     100 1993     70 1988     75 2018     58 2021
                                                    1996
                                                    1933

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM EDT this evening for
     GAZ029.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$

CAC