Raleigh, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

569
FXUS62 KRAH 101059
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
700 AM EDT Tue Jun 10 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
An weakening upper level trough will cross the region today and
tonight, followed by weak cold front that will stall over eastern NC
on Wednesday.  The cold front will then dissipate through the end of
the week as high pressure shifts across the region to off the
Southeast coast over the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 345 AM Tuesday...

* Marginal Risk for severe storms this afternoon and evening.

A deep mid level trough will move across the TN and OH valleys today
then slightly weaken as it moves across the Mid-Atlantic region this
afternoon and evening. At the surface a cold front slowly progresses
east through the day, showers and storms are expected to develop
again ahead and along the boundary. Hi-Res model data shows most of
today to be dry with the increase chance of storms early this
afternoon in the NW Piedmont and expanding east through the late
afternoon and evening hours. There is good instability along with
moisture, therefore SPC has all of the CWA in a Marginal Risk for
severe storms today. Most of the storms are expected to be sub
severe, but a few stronger storms within the main line could produce
damaging wind gusts. Most models are showing the line/cluster of
storms progress east across the Triad region between in late
afternoon early evening and then across the Triangle region and
Coastal Plain during the evening and early overnight hours.  The
frontal boundary could stall across the Sandhills and Coastal Plain
region, thus kept in a 20-30% PoP for the SE region through early
Wednesday morning. Temperatures ahead of the front will be warm and
muggy with highs in the mid/upper 80s and lows in the upper 60s to
low 70s.


&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 345 AM Tuesday...

The deamplifying upper trough will shift east of the area on
Wednesday. A cold front will slip into the area from the west, but
models continue to trend westward with where it eventually hangs up,
likely over the coastal plain.

Drier air will filter into the western Piedmont and higher PW
greater than 1.5" will be shunted east toward the coast.  The
frontal zone and seabreeze should be the main triggers for
convection.  Dewpoints in the the upper 60s favor higher CAPE in the
coastal plain as well. Weaker deep layer wind fields favor more
pulse storms and a primary threat of damaging winds.

Highs will be near normal - 86-88. Lows 66-70

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 345 AM Tuesday... Hartfield The frontal zone over eastern NC
will essentially wash out as high pressure shifts across the area
and then off the Southeast coast by the end of the week.  This will
establish a Bermuda high and southerly return flow across the area
through the weekend.  A shortwave or weak cut off low over the
southern plains is forecast to lift to toward the OH Valley and
central Appalachians by early next week.

Warm moist return flow is forecast to bring an anomalously moist
airmass (150-200 % of normal) across the region, which will result
in a marked increase in storm chances Fri-Mon, with guidance
indicating 50-70% chances each day. We will lean toward the lower
end of probabilities given lack of larger forcing and convection
should be diurnal most days.  WPC 7 day QPF suggests near to above
normal precipitation.

Highs will continue to run within a few degrees of normal in the mid
and 80s, with lows in the lower 70s.

 &&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 700 AM Tuesday...

A few showers across the southeastern portion of the CWA this
morning is dissipating as most of the shower/storm activity stays
along the coast.  Low stratus and patchy fog resulting in LIFR
conditions around the Triad are expected to lift and become MVFR
later this morning as the sunrises and help mix out these low
clouds/fog. While skies are not expected to fully clear out today,
expect MVFR and VFR conditions ahead of the incoming frontal
passage. Ahead of the front, a line of showers and storms will move
across the region late this afternoon and evening. Tried to time out
the lowering of ceilings and TSRA at each TAF site, but generally
expect the Triad sites to see sub-VFR conditions early this
afternoon, and the eastern TAF sites late afternoon into the evening
hours. After which VFR conditions are expected to return overnight.
However another round of MVFR to IFR conditions are possible in the
morning with fog and low stratus.

Outlook: VFR conditions should return for the day Wednesday. Diurnal
afternoon thunderstorms return Thursday and will continue each
afternoon and evening into the weekend. There will be potential for
late night and early morning fog and low stratus restrictions each
day especially where it rains.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BLS
NEAR TERM...CA
SHORT TERM...BLS
LONG TERM...BLS
AVIATION...CA