Monroe, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

222
FXUS62 KGSP 121026
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
626 AM EDT Thu Jun 12 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Seasonably warm and humid weather, with numerous showers and storms
each afternoon and evening, can be expected through the weekend. A
warming trend will occur early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 623 AM Thursday: The forecast remains on track this morning
and no changes were needed. A more typical warm and humid summer
pattern featuring above normal chances for diurnal convection
returns across much of the area today. Progressive northern stream
flow will remain draped across Canadian border with a building
Bermuda high over the southeast states. Farther upstream, over the
Southern Plains, a weak closed upper low will slowly crawl eastward
within a weak flow regime. This will place the Southern Appalachians
within moist south/southwest flow. Early morning surface
observations and low-level ThetaE analysis depicts the previously
stalled frontal boundary lifting back north across the area as a
warm front. As of this writing, the boundary is draped along the I-
85 corridor with guidance in good agreement that it will continue to
lift north through the day. Deep moisture will nudge into the area
behind the warm front with dewpoints in the low 70s and PWATs
climbing back into the 1.5-1.9" range. Weak pieces of energy
embedded within the background flow regime will lift across the area
today and help to instigate scattered to numerous diurnally driven
showers and thunderstorms. Typical summer pulse convection hazards
can be expected with locally heavy rainfall and frequent lightning.
A couple strong storms with isolated gusty winds from wet
microbursts will be possible as well. Forecast soundings are rather
unimpressive for greater microburst potential, however, with
tall/skinny CAPE profiles, poor lapse rates and marginal DCAPE.
Running environmental values from modified near-storm forecast
soundings through a local microburst checklist confirms the poor
setup with a microburst composite value of 1, which is about as low
as it gets outside of a flat out 0. At least scattered showers and
storms will likely linger into the evening with activity finally
dissipating by late evening/midnight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 130 AM Thu, key messages:

1. Southerly flow continues across the Southeast Friday and Saturday,
leading to deep saturation, abundant cloud cover, and daily chances
for showers and storms higher than climo.

2. Temperatures may actually dip slightly Friday compared to
Thursday, but will trend warmer again Saturday. Dewpoints will be
uncomfortably high, near 70 each afternoon in most areas.

3. Seasonable chances of localized heavy rain and isolated flash
flooding. A wet microburst producing strong to severe wind gusts
cannot be ruled out, although that threat will be mitigated by the
deep moisture.

South to southwest flow will continue Fri and Sat through the
atmospheric column, between Bermuda ridge and a shortwave in the
lower to mid Mississippi Valley. By most measures the last vestiges
of dry continental air (from earlier in the week) will be gone by the
start of the period Friday morning. PWATs will be above normal
through the day, likely in the 1.8 to 2 inch range per ensembles, and
change little Saturday.  Not much in the way of forcing other than
diurnal instability, but likely to categorical PoPs still result.
The shortwave axis inches closer by Saturday so PoPs trend a little
higher; QPF output doesn`t look any more organized but it would stand
to reason some slightly better lift could promote initiation.

Prog soundings each day unsurprisingly show deep saturation with weak
cloud layer flow and 0-6km shear. DCAPE and sfc-midlevel
delta-theta-e appear a little low to expect a particularly notable
risk of wet microbursts, although ensemble means depict CAPE in the
vicinity of 2000 J/kg each afternoon, so water loading may still
produce good downdrafts. Slow-moving storms producing torrential
rainfall arguably will be of greater concern.

Several models depict partial thicknesses declining from Thursday to
Friday, and accordingly slightly cooler temps in parts of the area
for Friday, a category or so below climo. Slightly higher thicknesses
and temps return Saturday, back to within a degree or two either side
of climo.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 215 AM Thu, key messages:

1. Shortwave trough to our west Sunday may promote increased precip
coverage in the NC mountains and northern foothills, but otherwise,
similar weather that day compared to Saturday.

2. The shortwave looks to pass Monday, turning low-level flow more
westerly and leading to a slight decrease in moisture aloft leading
daily PoPs to fall closer to climo Mon-Wed.

3. Temps trend warmer, slightly above climo Tue-Wed.

The major deterministic models all depict the axis of the shortwave
to the immediate west of the southern Appalachians Sunday. The zone
of deepest moisture looks to shift north of the area in some
guidance, and spread in PWAT increases among the LREF ensemble
members suggesting the possibility of some drying developing aloft.
QPF response becomes a little more concentrated across northern NC
and VA but also nearer the shortwave axis. PoPs trend up in our
western and northern zones. If drier air does work in, severe threat
may tick upward a tad, but heavy rain still appears the more likely
threat, particularly as saturated soils become more common in the CWA
following previous day`s storms.

The shortwave dampens Monday as it is absorbed into the midlatitude
flow across the US northern tier. Its axis looks to pass the CWA and
winds turn more westerly aloft. This is likely to reduce PWATs and
begin a slow decline of PoPs each day thru Wed, although coverage
still looks likely to be above climo. Downsloping appears to be
responsible for the rise of model blend temps that day, with airmass
modification and more sunshine supporting a continuing warming trend
thru midweek, with most Piedmont locations likely hitting 90 by
Wednesday afternoon. The potential for wet microbursts producing
damaging winds may increase as DCAPE is shown to trend upward in this
timeframe. Locally heavy rainfall remains possible... more or less
typical mid-June weather all around.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: Conditions start off VFR at all terminals
this morning, although an isolated instance of patchy fog cannot be
completely discounted through the next hour or two. Thereafter, the
main focus will be on scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms this afternoon into the evening. Any showers and
storms will have the potential to contain heavy rain with temporary
reductions in visibility. A more widespread low stratus deck may
develop tonight, but will be dependent on how storms evolve today
and any lingering cloud cover. Should widespread stratus develop,
IFR would be common, but will keep TAFs limited to MVFR for now
until trends become more clear.

Outlook: Mainly diurnal showers and thunderstorms are expected each
afternoon/evening through the weekend and early next week. There
will be potential for late night and early morning fog and low
stratus restrictions each day.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Wimberley
NEAR TERM...TW
SHORT TERM...Wimberley
LONG TERM...Wimberley
AVIATION...TW