Monroe, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

823
FXUS62 KGSP 022231
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
631 PM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Warmer temperatures expected Thursday even as rain chances continue.
Fair afternoon skies and exceptionally warm weather end the week. A
cold front brings shower and thunderstorm chances on Sunday, with
drier and cooler conditions through the middle of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 625 PM EDT Wednesday: The wedge has managed to retreat along
and north of I-85 this afternoon which has allowed low stratus to
gradually lift and a decent cumulus field to develop across the
southeastern tier of the CWA this evening. Scattered thunderstorms
are currently lifting northward out of central SC towards the
southern fringe of the SC Upstate. 500-1500 J/kg of SBCAPE is in
place outside of the wedge, and despite modest shear, localized
enhancement of low-level helicity near the wedge boundary will push
0-1km SRH to 140-180 J/kg, enough to support a low-end and isolated
risk of strong to severe storms. Temps have climbed into the mid to
upper 70s outside the wedge boundary but remain in the mid 50s to
mid 60s in/near the wedge boundary.

Tonight, any improvement in low stratus will be wiped out.
Despite the surface low moving far enough offshore that it won`t
really be in position to actively sustain the wedge any longer,
there won`t be a mechanism to erode it; rather, there will be the
usual nighttime inversion and moist southeasterly flow keeping
the boundary layer saturated...which all but guarantees the murky
conditions will persist through the night.  Lows will struggle
to fall below the upper 50s or lower 60s.  The daylight hours on
Thursday will feature slow clearing...as daytime heating very slowly
mixes the residual wedge.  Temps for tomorrow are tricky...since
the temperature trend will be highly dependent on how quickly
the wedge scatters out.  The NBM and a consensus of the 12z CAMs
are forecasting highs in the upper 70s or even lower 80s...but
think actual highs could wind up cooler since these models may be
clearing out the wedge unrealistically fast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 150 PM Wed: Upper ridge starts out over the area then slowly
moves eastward as a trough digs into the Midwest. The moist upslope/
upglide weakens Thursday evening bringing an end to any showers.
Despite the ridge in place Friday, there looks to be enough moisture
and weak instability for isolated to scattered showers across the
mountains during the afternoon and early evening as a front moves
south toward the area but stalls just to our north. An isolated
ridge top shower can`t be ruled out Saturday afternoon, but overall
chance of precip is low with less in the way of moisture and
instability as the front moves north away from the area and a
surface ridge reasserts itself. Thicknesses and heights remain high
under the ridge. This puts record highs in jeopardy both days. Lows
will be around 20 degrees above normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 210 PM Wed: The upper trough mentioned at the end of the short
range moves east and pushes a cold front into the area Sunday. There
will be plenty of forcing and shear, along with high PW values,
associated with the front. There will be some instability, but the
amount is uncertain. Therefore, there is a low severe and excessive
rainfall threat which we`ll keep an eye on as the event approaches.
A wave forms along the front slowing its eastward progression
Monday. This will keep a chance of lingering showers across the
area, but any severe and flood threat will have moved eastward.

A weak secondary front/clipper type low may cross the area Tuesday,
but the guidance keeps shifting from low chance precip to dry. Have
kept the forecast dry for now. Dry and cooler high pressure moves in
Wednesday.

Temperatures are cooler but still above normal Sunday and falling to
near normal Monday. Temps drip below normal for Tuesday and
Wednesday. This brings a frost concern for the non-mountain areas of
the Upstate and NE GA and the NC southern foothills and Piedmont,
where the growing season has started.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: Dreary conditions across the area today as
cold air damming lingers.  Light, almost-imperceptible SHRA or DZ
is ongoing across the northern SC Upstate and the NC Foothills,
with intermittent impacts at KHKY, KGSP, and KGMU.  In general,
all the TAF sites except KCLT remain IFR to LIFR with low ceilings.
Latest GFS LAMP and NBM guidance still suggest that there will be a
brief period of improvement to at least MVFR later this afternoon,
when rainfall lets up and clouds are permitted to scatter out at
least a bit.  At KCLT, conditions have already improved to MVFR,
and KCLT has the best chance of a brief window of VFR in the
next few hours.  Ceilings should tank at all the terminals again
this evening, with IFR to LIFR restrictions expected everywhere
by midnight and thereafter.  Improvement will once again be slow
tomorrow...but perhaps not as slow, since the large-scale features
driving cold air damming will no longer be in place.

Otherwise, expect winds to slowly veer over the course of the TAF
period, from ESE this afternoon to SSE this evening and S overnight
into tomorrow as the wedge retreats entirely.

Outlook: Scattered showers as well as cig restrictions may linger
into Thursday afternoon.  IFR to MVFR cigs may return again late
Thursday night into Friday morning. Drier conditions return Thursday
night into Saturday night before another cold front brings shower
and thunderstorm chances, and associated flight restrictions,
back on Sunday.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORDS FOR 04-03

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAVL      88 1963     31 1936     64 1946     23 1936
   KCLT      90 1946     42 1915     62 1986     26 2021
                                        1946
   KGSP      87 1967     44 1901     62 2014     27 2021
                1963                                1993
                1946                                1902



RECORDS FOR 04-04

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAVL      83 1999     33 1891     61 1893     22 1936
                1978
   KCLT      87 1999     43 1911     63 1986     29 1936
                            1899        1945
                                        1934
   KGSP      88 1963     44 1936     62 1999     25 1975
                1934



RECORDS FOR 04-05

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAVL      86 1909     30 1891     60 2023     20 1944
                                        1910
   KCLT      88 1942     38 1891     62 1910     26 1891
   KGSP      90 1934     43 1899     60 2023     25 1904
                                        1888



RECORDS FOR 04-06

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAVL      88 1967     36 1950     64 2023     22 1898
   KCLT      90 2010     43 1931     67 2023     28 1891
                1929
   KGSP      88 2010     47 1950     65 2023     26 1904
                            1945

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RWH
NEAR TERM...AR/MPR
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...MPR
CLIMATE...GSP