Monroe, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

137
FXUS62 KGSP 240602
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
102 AM EST Wed Dec 24 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A warm upper ridge over the lower Mississippi Valley will keep our
region warm and dry for Christmas and the start of the weekend.  The
warm weather will end dramatically early next week as cold air from
Canada drops the temperature about 30 degrees from weekend
temperatures.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1250 AM EDT Wednesday:

Key Message #1: Warm temperatures with near-record highs today.

An upper ridge will persist across the Plains, with a series of
shortwaves riding over the axis across southern Canada and diving
into New England. The first wave is already about to enter New
England, and is helping to veer the flow across the region from
westerly to more northwesterly. While there is initially some
CAA with this flow, it will become neutral by this aftn, and with
downslope effect taking over, this will allow temps to warm into the
70s east of the mountains and 60s in the mountain valleys. These
temps will be 15-20 deg above normal, and likely to tie or break
record highs at KGSP and KCLT (71 and 73, respectively). KAVL will
not likely reach theirs, due to persistent cool up-valley flow
and periods of cloud cover. Speaking of cloud cover, plenty of
moisture will continue to bank up against the NC mountains near
the TN border thru most of the day. Spotty light showers will
continue to affect those areas thru about daybreak, then a lull
is expected with dry conditions likely from mid-morning thru the
aftn. Mostly sunny skies expected elsewhere.

Key Message #2: Warm temperatures tonight with spotty light rain
showers mainly in the mountains near the TN border.

Tonight, a second wave approaches New England, and will be
accompanied by a secondary jet streak to the south, tracking
from the Upper Midwest to the Mid-Atlantic. This wave will help
activate a subtle frontal boundary draped roughly NW-SE across
the forecast area. Guidance agrees on increasing clouds along the
frontal zone. The 00z CAMs have come in with some spotty light
showers breaking out across mainly the eastern half of the forecast
area overnight, quickly tracking east of the area early Thursday
morning as the warm front exits to the NE. The deterministic/global
models don`t show any QPF response that corresponds to these
showers. Perhaps, the shallow moisture is not being resolved well
and the CAMs are on to something. For now, I think impacts would
be very low if anything develops, and confidence remains too low
to add mentionable PoPs beyond what`s in the latest NBM. The TN
border counties, however, will likely see scattered light showers
develop again, given better moisture and lift with backing westerly
flow. Lows will be quite elevated tonight, mainly in the upper
40s to lower 50s (not far from our normal highs).

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 1200 AM EST Wednesday:

Key Message: Near-record warmth expected Christmas Day...and for
some locations on Friday.

A strong upper ridge over the central Conus will begin to break
down during the latter half of the short term, as the pattern will
remain quite active across southern Canada into the northeast
Conus...with one strong speed max digging across New England on
Thursday. This will support a warm frontal activation/a moist
warm advection across the region...although the greater forcing is
forecast to remain north of our CWA. Low level flow veering to the
WNW throughout the day will result in increasing upslope lift near
the TN/NC border...and this will actually be the primary impetus
for precip potential Christmas Day through the early part of the
26th. PoPs (mainly in the 30-50%) range are therefore primarily
confined to the counties bordering TN during that time frame. Very
warm thickness values combined with increasing downslope flow
outside the mountains are expected to result in max temps around
20 degrees above normal. Forecast maxes fall a category shy of
the upper 70s daily records at KCLT/KGSP, but will be within
the ballpark of the record of 71 at KAVL. The unseasonably warm
conditions continue into Christmas night...when min temps will be
close to where normal highs should be for the time of year.

Meanwhile, in the wake of Thursday`s speed max, 1035-ish mb surface
high pressure is forecast to progress from eastern Ontario into
Quebec, with inverted ridging developing down the eastern slopes
of the Appalachians Thu night into Friday. This will likely send
a backdoor cold front into the northern part of the forecast area
early Friday. How far south the front pushes before stalling is the
subject of much controversy...in light of the fact that the next
round of height falls will already be approaching the East from the
northern Great Plains during this time. This makes for a very tricky
max temp forecast for Friday...with major bust potential on both the
warm and cold side of the equation. For now...have opted to ride
the National Blend of Models guidance for maxes...which features
near-normal temps across the northwest NC Piedmont...increasing
toward the SW such that forecast temps across far southwest NC
and the upper Savannah River Valley are 10-15 degrees above normal.

PoPs for mostly light showers increase once again across the
mountains later Friday into Friday night as the next frontal
zone/warm advection regime associated with aforementioned height
falls progresses across the region, with chances peaking at 50-60%
across the TN border counties. Unseasonably warm (and humid)
conditions continue through Fri night.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 1215 AM EST Wednesday:

Key Messages: Well-above-normal temperatures are expected through
the weekend. A major pattern change involving the arrival of an
arctic front is expected early next week.

Very warm weather will return (or continue for some areas)
through the weekend, as an upper ridge reasserts itself closer to
home...downstream of major height falls overspreading the central
Conus. Forecast temps are 15-20 degrees above normal Saturday
through Sunday. Early next week...an arctic cold front associated
with strong upper low responsible for aforementioned height falls
is expected to impact our region. While this will be another frontal
system that is unlikely to bring appreciable rainfall (probabilities
mainly in the 30-50% range Sunday/Sunday night), temperatures are
forecast to plummet Sunday night/Monday such that max temps are
forecast to be several degrees below normal Monday...and 10 or more
degrees below climo Mon night/Tuesday. In other words, Tuesday`s
forecast highs will be 30-35 degrees below this weekend`s maxes.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: VFR conditions expected thru the period,
except for possible MVFR cigs working up the French Broad Valley
and reaching KAVL in an increasing NW flow around 10-11z and
persisting thru the morning hours. Confidence remains modest, as
guidance has backed off the low cigs somewhat in latest runs. With
a cross-valley flow aloft, there may be some LLWS at KAVL until
the flow veers from WNW to more NNW and brings the lower clouds
in. Quiet everywhere else today, with light WSW wind, shifting to
more WNW after daybreak, then becoming light/variable, perhaps
favoring a SE direction at KCLT starting this evening. Mainly
just some cirrus streaming thru today, then high-based stratocu is
expected to from this evening. Latest guidance is hinting at some
spotty light showers popping up after 06z, but would be short-lived
and confidence remains too low to mention in the TAFs. There may
be some MVFR cigs forming as a warm front lifts thru the area
early Thursday, mainly in the NC foothills and northwest Piedmont.

Outlook: Low cigs should scatter out Thursday, except for
along/near the TN border. A potential backdoor front may slip into
the area Thursday night and set up some sort of cold-air damming
Friday. Confidence remains low, but there is potential for MVFR
or lower cigs developing Friday and persisting into Friday night
across most of the area.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORDS FOR 12-24

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAVL      72 1955     17 1906     59 2015     -5 1983
   KCLT      73 2015     29 2022     63 2015      6 1983
                            1906
   KGSP      71 1964     28 2022     61 2015      7 2022



RECORDS FOR 12-25

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAVL      71 2021     14 1983     59 2015     -7 1983
   KCLT      77 1955     22 1983     63 2015      4 1983
   KGSP      78 1955     22 1983     61 2015      6 1983



RECORDS FOR 12-26

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAVL      78 1971     17 1902     55 2015      0 1983
   KCLT      77 2021     27 1983     58 2015      6 1983
                                        1964
   KGSP      76 2021     28 1983     62 1987      5 1985
                2015        1980



RECORDS FOR 12-27

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAVL      72 1971     19 1902     59 2015      3 1925
   KCLT      72 2021     22 1892     65 2015     15 1970
                2015                                1948
                1971                                1925
   KGSP      75 1971     29 1925     64 2015     12 1925



RECORDS FOR 12-28

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAVL      73 1889     19 1894     56 2015      0 1925
   KCLT      77 1971     30 1950     58 2015     10 1925
                            1935
                            1925
   KGSP      75 1971     31 1950     64 2015      9 1925
                            1925


&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JDL
NEAR TERM...ARK
SHORT TERM...JDL
LONG TERM...JDL
AVIATION...ARK
CLIMATE...GSP