Matthews, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

978
FXUS62 KGSP 101439
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1039 AM EDT Tue Jun 10 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front moving thru the area today will produce scattered
showers and thunderstorms. Most areas will see quiet weather and
lower humidity Wednesday behind the front. Seasonably hot and humid
weather returns late in the week with numerous showers and storms
each afternoon and evening.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1020 AM Tuesday: No big changes yet as the forecast remains on
track. The main concern once again will be severe thunderstorms,
with the SPC having expanded the Day 1 Marginal Risk back to
the west to incorporate most of the area along and S/E of I-85,
essentially along an old wavy frontal boundary. Nothing looks too
particularly scary thus far, but the latest run of the RAP shows
the environment east of the boundary obtaining sfc-based CAPE in
the 2000-2500 J/kg range with effective shear of 20-25 kt. Just
enough to work with for some organized strong storms. Lapse rates
are a bit more favorable but there`s not as much dry air aloft,
so maybe today would be more of a hail risk. Precip probs will be
tweaked to better agree with neighbors. Temps look ok.

Otherwise...the morning water vapor imagery depicts a closed
and vertically stacked upper low spinning over the Great Lakes
region with a trough axis extending just east of the Mississippi
River. Surface observations along with low-level ThetaE fields place
a cold front draped from eastern Kentucky to central Tennessee. The
cold front will swing across the area today with timing around
peak heating. Sufficient forcing for ascent coupled with modest
instability will support the development of a broken band of
convection along the advancing boundary. Coverage should remain
scattered for much of the area, but several CAM members hint at
the potential for a more solid linear segment to fill in across the
North Carolina foothills and push into the I-77 corridor. A couple
strong storms with gusty winds will be possible and an isolated
severe storm with locally damaging winds cannot be completely
discounted if a more solid line with a balanced cold pool is able to
get cranking. The best chance for any isolated severe storms will
be generally along and east of I-77. Convection will shift east of
the area by this evening with a quiet post frontal night expected.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 115 AM Tue, key messages:

1. Cold front stalls to our south Wednesday. Convection looks to be
suppressed over most of the CWA that day in the drier air north of the
front and weak subsidence aloft.

2. The front reactivates Thursday and convective chances tick upward a
bit. These chances linger into early Friday, as elevated showers or
storms remain possible in the frontal zone.

3. Max temps trending gradually warmer over the short term period.

Shortwave axis will drift across the Carolinas/Georgia during the day
Wednesday. Weak high pressure will spread over the CWA behind that and
the sfc front; flow in the mid to upper levels will be W to NW but
weak enough downslope may not be much of a factor, and low-level flow
may remain light SW`ly. Prog soundings are dry aloft and a slight
midlevel subsidence inversion remains through the day. The axis of the
shortwave may interact with the front to promote some convective
development along it, so isolated precip is not out of the question in
our far SE nearest the front, and a stray shower over the mountains
can`t be entirely ruled out although not necessarily worthy of PoPs.

The front begins to reactivate Wed night or early Thu as shortwave
moves thru TX and toward the lower MS Valley, promoting southerly flow
across the Southeast. Profiles moisten enough in the layer above the
PBL to make deep convection plausible over most of the area by the
diurnal peak. Winds are weak through most of the column and thus shear
will be very weak. Surface to midlevel delta-theta-e is marginal at
around 20 K, but DCAPE approaching 1000 J/kg suggests a few storms
could pose a risk of a damaging microburst Thu aftn/evening. A few
hundred joules of MUCAPE persists Thursday night so some overnight
showers/storms are possible; continued moisture return suggests wind
threat will decrease while threat of locally heavy rain will increase,
with storm motion remaining slow owing to the weak environmental flow.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 200 AM Tue, key messages:

1. Subtropical humidity returns to the area by Friday, which
essentially remains in place through the remainder of the period;
temps remain near normal.

2. Moist profiles and weak shear persist, supporting a typical June
threat of diurnally driven wet microbursts producing localized heavy
rainfall and perhaps a few instances of damaging wind.

3. A weak cold front may impinge on the area Monday or early Tuesday,
but confidence is low and airmass change appears unlikely.

Between the MS Valley shortwave and the Bermuda High, the warm front
continues to shift northward Friday and steady S to SW persists over
the CWA. This return flow continues through the weekend, and dewpoints
will be in the upper 60s to lower 70s over most of the Piedmont each
afternoon. The atmospheric column approaches saturation over a deep
layer; PWATs trend gradually higher each day through Sunday, although
values look likely to remain relatively tame at only 1.3 to 1.5 SD
above climo per ensembles. PoPs are higher than climo, chance Piedmont
and likely mountains on Friday, and likely to categorical Sat and Sun.
0-3km and 0-6km shear remain weak and storm motion should remain slow.
DCAPE and theta-e lapses look marginal for a severe wind threat,
although the weak shear and high PWATs are classic for June. Wet
microbursts producing torrential rain and isolated instances of
damaging wind still look possible each day thru Sunday. Temps will be
near normal, so despite the humidity Heat Index should top out only in
the mid 90s.

The seasonably hot, humid weather and mainly diurnal PoPs most likely
will repeat on Monday, but confidence diminishes a bit with models
still not in agreement on the progression of the trough out of the MS
Valley. This could carry a frontal boundary across the Appalachians
late Mon or early Tue, mainly serving to focus convection and perhaps
increase shear. The 12/18z ECMWF runs suggested a backdoor front might
instead push down the East Coast although probably not bringing cooler
or less humid air to the CWA until after the end of the period, if at
all. The forecast continues to reflect humid and stormy weather
Monday, not much different from Sunday, but that could change one way
or the other on subsequent forecasts.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: Low stratus and patchy fog is ongoing across
the area with the greatest impacts occurring at KCLT where IFR
ceilings have persisted through much of the evening. Other terminals
have seen periods of IFR/LIFR with several observations of patchy
fog around the area. Any restrictions will improve through the
morning following sunrise as fog mixes out and low stratus lifts and
scatters. Cloud bases will remain low, however, and a couple brief
periods of MVFR ceilings cannot be ruled out into the early
afternoon before clouds scatter further. Thereafter, a cold front
will move across the area with scattered showers and thunderstorms
expected. Temporary visibility and ceiling restrictions can be
expected with any storms and/or heavier rainfall rates. Any showers
and storms will push out of the area this evening with a return to
VFR.

Outlook: VFR should continue through Wednesday. Mainly diurnal
thunderstorms return Thursday and will persist each
afternoon/evening into the weekend. There will be potential for late
night and early morning fog and low stratus restrictions each day.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Wimberley
NEAR TERM...PM/TW
SHORT TERM...Wimberley
LONG TERM...Wimberley
AVIATION...TW