Leland, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

998
FXUS62 KILM 130800
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
400 AM EDT Fri Jun 13 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Bermuda High Pressure will continue to influence weather across
the area, through the weekend and into next week. Warm and
humid conditions will prevail along with the potential for
showers and thunderstorms each day, mainly in the afternoon to
early evening. A warming trend is expected during the upcoming
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Warm and moist southerly return flow will continue around
Bermuda High Pressure. Pcp water values were near 2 inches this
morning and will get just above 2 inches by this afternoon. A
good deal of cloud cover could slow heating, but overall,
expect increasing instability and chc of convection as temps
warm into the 80s this afternoon. The area will continue to be
between building ridge from the south and upper trough moving
eastward from the central Mississippi Valley. There will be
minor perturbations in the flow mainly inland, enough to fuel
some thunderstorms, but overall expect localized convection
especially along sea breeze boundary. This convection will be
closer to the coast to start and will push inland through the
afternoon. Weak steering flow may help to cause some brief
torrential rain and localized flooding is possible. Highs will
be in the mid 80s most places and lows tonight should be in the
low to mid 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
An H5 subtropical ridge to the south and trough along the MS
Valley Saturday will direct impulses into the Carolinas in deep
SW flow highlighted by very high PWAT values. As a result,
expect the sea breeze to be active Saturday, and with small
scale boundary interactions yielding additional convection as
the day progresses into the evening. The loss of heating may
impact areal extend of convection but think there will be
enough lift to support widely scattered storms across the
forecast area Saturday night into Sunday morning. Expect Sunday
to be active again given very high PWAT and heating leading to
an active sea breeze again into Sunday night. Will see a few
degree warm-up from highs Saturday to highs on Sunday. SWly
flow will maintain above normal low temperatures each night. A
weak front will attempt to approach from the north during
Sunday into the first part of the long term period.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As the H5 subtropical ridge builds westward across GA/FL the
higher PWATs will shift just north of the forecast area. Still
a good chance area wide for showers/t-storms Monday, but think
the better potential will be across the northern zones
northward. Heights will slowly increase Tuesday into Wednesday
and high temperatures will be in the lower 90s Tuesday and
Wednesday, possibly mid 90s for inland areas by Thursday and
Friday . A chance of storms will exist each day, especially in
the afternoon and evening given this summertime pattern. A
front will attempt to approach the area from the north Monday
but thinking is it will dissipate or return northward before
affecting the northern zones.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Mainly VFR conditions expected through the period. Caveats to
this include some early morning stratus possible, mainly inland
terminals followed by mainly aftn convection typical of summertime.
May see brief sub-VFR in thunderstorms, mainly during the afternoon,
greater chance inland terminals after 18z. Winds will be S-SW less
than 10 kts for the most part.

Extended Outlook...Brief restrictions due to intermittent
thunderstorms are possible through Monday.


&&

.MARINE...
Through tonight...Fairly light southerly flow will continue
around Bermuda High through today. Winds will generally be 5 to 10
kts, with a slight uptick in the afternoon seabreeze, especially
across the nearshore waters. Seas will basically be 3 ft or less
with a SE swell mixing in with the minimal windwave.

Saturday through Wednesday...High pressure anchored far off the
Southeast U.S. coast along with a front to the north of the
waters will maintain SWly flow across the adjacent waters
Saturday through Wednesday. The front north of the waters will
attempt to push into the NC, but at this time think it will
remain north Sun-Mon then dissipate as it lifts back to the
north. GFS ensemble probabilistic wind information continues to
suggest that the pressure gradient will tighten enough to
support winds AOA 20 knots Sunday night into Monday, but more-
so Monday night into Tue morning. The resilient SWly fetch will
support seas in the 3-4 ft range through much of the period,
with likely 4-5 ft across the outer coastal waters Sunday night
into Tue. These conditions may persist especially from Cape Fear
northward during Wednesday into Wednesday night as well given
not much change in the overall pattern.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...RGZ
SHORT TERM...SRP
LONG TERM...SRP
AVIATION...RGZ
MARINE...ILM