Jacksonville, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

399
FXUS62 KMHX 102030
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
330 PM EST Sun Nov 10 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will move through area waters Monday night. High
pressure then builds in through mid-week. Another cold front will
move through on Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 115 PM Sunday...

 - Increased risk of showers and isolated thunderstorms tonight

 - Well above normal temperatures tonight

A notable upper level low will lift NE across the Great Lakes
through tonight, with a subtle southern stream wave lifting NE
through the Southeast U.S. At the surface, a diffusing coastal
trough is forecast to move gradually inland as a southwesterly
LLJ increases south of the Great Lakes wave.

Ahead of the southern stream wave, increasing moisture
advection will allow PWATs to quickly rise to 1-1.5" within a
broad zone of modest WAA. This will also occur in tandem with
the left exit region of an upper jet overspreading the
Carolinas. While overall forcing is expected to be modest, it
should be sufficient to support the development of scattered
showers across the coastal Carolinas, especially after midnight
tonight. An area of weak elevated instability appears possible
as well, which may support isolated weak thunderstorms at times.
The latest suite of model guidance hasn`t differed much
regarding all of the above, therefore the forecast remains
mostly unchanged through tonight.

The shower activity tonight should be some of the "highest"
rainfall our area has seen in awhile, and is much-needed. That
said, guidance suggests most areas will end up in the
0.10"-0.35" range, so nothing excessive expected.

WAA within the developing southerly flow should support lows
only falling into the 60s tonight, which is a good 10-20 degrees
above normal for early November.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY/...
As of 115 PM Sunday...

 - Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms possible Monday

 - Above to well above normal highs Monday

A mid-level trough will approach the Carolinas on Monday, with
continued warm/moist advection occurring ahead of it, and
potentially tapping into tropical moisture from the Gulf of
Mexico. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to move out of
the Ohio Valley and into the central/southern Appalachians
during the day. East of the front, a weak, pre-frontal trough is
forecast to develop in the lee of the Appalachians.

Monday presents an interesting forecast challenge. Moisture
looks plentiful, with above-climo PWATs (ie. 1.50"+). Meanwhile,
modestly steep mid-level lapse rates overtop 60s dewpoints
should support MLCAPE as high as around 500 j/kg. However, there
doesn`t appear to be any significant source of forcing during
the late-morning and afternoon hours. The jet entrance region
from tonight will be shifting east of the area on Monday, and
the SFC cold front will be well to our west during peak heating.
Therefore, despite the moist and modestly unstable airmass in
place, the chance of showers and thunderstorms may tend to be
limited due to the questionable forcing. Recent hi-res guidance
continues to support a lower risk of convection, with some
guidance even trending lower. In light of this, I expect morning
WAA-driven showers and isolated thunderstorms to push offshore
by mid to late-morning, followed by mainly isolated showers and
thunderstorms during the afternoon hours. In an attempt to avoid
flip-flopping, I`ve trended the chance of precip down, but
won`t trend drastically lower just yet. Given the moisture and
instability in place, it shouldn`t take much to get isolated to
scattered convection. Lastly, because of the lack of stronger
forcing, the severe weather risk continues to look LOW.

After a very mild start to the day, it won`t take much heating
to realize highs into the 70s. Where sufficient breaks in the
clouds occur, highs could easily reach the low 80s. The forecast
doesn`t explicitly show this, but the potential is worth
noting, especially since normal highs this time of year are in
the 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 1400 Sunday...

Upper level trough over the Great Lakes will dive SE`wards
across the Mid-Atlantic Coast on Monday while associated series
of mid level shortwaves move across the Carolinas. At the
surface, cold front will track across the region Mon night.

High pressure builds in from the north Tuesday and Wednesday.
Dry weather will prevail with NE flow bringing a slight cool
down with highs only getting into the low to mid 60s. Another
mid level shortwave then begins to approach from the west on
Thursday with associated SFC cold front forecast to track across
ENC Thurs into Thurs night. Global guidance is suggesting
cyclogenesis along the front as it reaches the coast in
conjunction with the trough axis aloft swinging through the FA.
Have increased PoPs slightly, but there are still differences in
solutions of the pattern. For now will keep it fairly "middle
of the road." A third ridge of high pressure then begins to
build in from the west late next week and into next weekend.
Temps remain at or below avg through the rest of the period.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through 18z Monday/...
As of 115 PM Sunday...

 - Sub VFR conditions likely (60-80% chance) late tonight into
   Monday due to low CIGs and SHRA

 - TSRA possible tonight into Monday, but risk appears low
   (10-20% chance)

Increasing southerly flow will support an increased risk of low
CIGs later tonight through Monday. Guidance is mixed on how
quickly the sub VFR CIGs occur, but the most likely scenario is
MVFR conditions developing around 06z/1am tonight, then
continuing into at least the first half of Monday. Increasing
moisture and modest lift should also support a risk of SCT SHRA
and isolated TSRA. The TAFs have been adjusted to reflect when
the greatest risk of SHRA is expected. Because of the lower
confidence, and coverage, of TSRA, I have continue to leave any
mention out of the TAFs for now.

LONG TERM /Monday night through Friday/...
As of 1400 Sunday...

A cold front will track across ENC Mon night. Behind the front,
VFR conditions return Tuesday and Wednesday with another front
bringing the next chance of showers and sub VFR flight cats
Thursday night.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through Monday/...
As of 300 PM Sunday...

 - Southerly winds building through Monday

High pressure moving offshore, and coastal troughing moving
inland, will allow an increasing southerly flow to develop
across the ENC waters through tonight. It still looks like winds
will hold in the 10-20kt range, and stay just below 25kt. While
a few gusts to 25kt cannot be ruled out later tonight through
Monday, the risk appears low enough to preclude the need for any
marine headlines. For the coastal waters, seas continue to hold
in the 3-5 ft range at this time. The far outer edges of the
central waters may experience 5-6ft seas through this evening,
but this risk appears small enough in area to preclude any
marine headlines for now.

A couple of upper level waves will interact with a moistening
airmass, leading to an increased risk of scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms late tonight into Monday. The greatest
risk of thunderstorms looks to be focused along the outer
coastal waters south of Cape Hatteras.

LONG TERM /Monday night through Friday/...
As of 345 AM Sunday...A cold front will eventually track across
our waters Mon night which will end any precip threat. However,
elevated marine conditions are then forecast behind this front.
SW winds shift to a NW to N direction and increase from 10-15
kts to 15-25 kts with gusts in excess of 25-30 kts at times on
Tuesday. In response to the increased winds, seas will build on
Tue as well to 5-8 ft north of Cape Lookout with 3-6 ft seas
forecast south of Cape Lookout. This will bring SCA conditions
back to much of our waters Tue. As we get into Wed, cold front
will be well offshore and high pressure will build in from the
west allowing winds to veer to a NE direction and decrease to
10-15 kts. Winds remain N`rly at 10-15 kts through Thurs out
ahead of the next approaching cold front. Elevated seas remain
in place along our coastal waters through Wed before lowering
down to 2-5 ft Thursday as winds ease.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...RM
SHORT TERM...RM
LONG TERM...CEB/RCF
AVIATION...RM/CEB/RCF
MARINE...RM/RCF