Jacksonville, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

981
FXUS62 KMHX 131952
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
252 PM EST Tue Jan 13 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Issued Cape Lookout to Surf City to the Small Craft Advisory
from Wednesday evening through Thursday night. Extended the
Small Craft Advisory for Oregon Inlet to Cape Lookout through
Thursday night. Probabilities for Gale Force winds has
decreased for Thursday night.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) A low pressure system and cold front Wednesday through
Thursday night will bring the next chance of rain, with a slight
chance of non-accumulating snow Thursday morning. Strong CAA
behind the front will bring wind chill values in the teens
Thursday night into Friday morning.

2) A system with limited moisture moves through Sunday, with
another surge of cold, dry air behind it.

MARINE: SCA conditions Wednesday through Thursday night. SCA
conditions possible again for the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...

A robust northern stream trough digs into the eastern CONUS
today through Wednesday. An embedded shortwave moving across
the Deep South will bring improved upper level forcing and
expect an area of low pressure to develop off the Southeast
coast Wednesday which will pass off the NC coast Wednesday
evening. There continues to be some uncertainty with the exact
track of the low offshore which will ultimately determine precip
coverage and amounts across the region. The best precip chances
continue to be along OBX and areas offshore where we continue
likely PoPs, which tapers to slight chance well inland. Guidance
remains limited with precip amounts which shows around a
quarter of an inch along the OBX to little accumulation inland.
All liquid precip expected through Wednesday evening.

A second shortwave moves through the upper trough Wednesday
night with an attendant cold front pushing across ENC early
Thursday morning. ENC is removed from best upper level dynamics
but sufficient moisture lingers that we could see a brief change
over to a rain/snow mix or snow with strong CAA developing
behind the front Thursday morning. This will be a typical cold
air chasing the moisture, likely keeping us dry Thursday
afternoon except possibly for the immediate coast. Additional
rainfall amounts will only be a few hundredths of an inch liquid
with no snow accumulation expected. The upper level trough axis
pushes across the region Thursday evening bringing descent
forcing but by this time moisture will be quite limited.

Strong CAA continues Thursday night bringing breezy conditions
and temps dropping to around 20 inland and mid to upper 20s
along the coast, which will result in wind chill values in the
teens Thursday night into Friday morning.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

A deep upper level trough with an associated cold front is
expected to move through the region early Sunday. There isn`t
much moisture to play with ahead of this front, so precip
chance is on the lower side (PoPs 15-20%) and mainly near the
coast. NBM called for snow chances, but with sfc temps in the
40-45F range at that time, paired with the drier trend, elected
to stick with all rain for the forecast.

Cyclonic flow continues aloft early to mid next week with
additional dry fronts/troughs pushing across the region keeping
temps well below normal with highs generally in the 40s and lows
in the 20s, though could see upper teens in coolest inland
spots.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR conditions expected through the TAF period as high pressure
builds in from the southwest. Southwesterly winds 5-10 kts this
afternoon will diminish to 5 kts or less overnight, then remain
light southerly on Wednesday. Clouds increase late in the TAF period
ahead of an approaching cold front.

Outlook: Predominant VFR flight conditions expected through much of
the period with high pressure in control. An area of low pressure
and cold front will cross through Eastern NC on Wednesday and
Thursday, which could produce lowered ceilings and visibilities
(MVFR), and light precipitation, which may briefly mix with some
snow before ending on Thursday. High pressure returns for Friday
into the weekend.

&&

.MARINE...
Currently seeing WSW winds less than 15 kt and seas around 2 ft
across the waters this afternoon. Will see some strengthening
of the winds as a low crosses the Great Lakes and high pressure
sits offshore, tightening the pressure gradient. This will bring
frequent gusts around 25 kts for the warmer Gulf Stream waters
tonight.

Winds diminish a bit to around 15-20 knots Wednesday before
picking back up to 20-30 knots Wednesday night as a low forms
offshore and strengthens. Again, best chance of seeing Small
Craft gusts with this low is along warmer Gulf Stream waters
with SW flow. Cooler inland sounds/rivers will see much lighter
wind gusts with the SW winds thanks to a marine inversion.

A cold front will push across the waters Thursday morning with
strong CAA developing Thursday afternoon and Thursday night and
could see NW winds bring strong SCA conditions across the
waters. Guidance is a little weaker with post frontal winds and
NBM probs for Gale Force gusts are below 25%. Continue the SCA
for Gulf Stream waters for frequent gusts but have extended
through Thursday night given the lower probs for Gales.

Conditions improve late in the week with high pressure briefly
building into the area. This weekend, another cold front moves
through, bringing elevated winds and seas once again.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 6 AM EST Friday
     for AMZ152-154-156.
     Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM Wednesday to 6 AM EST Friday
     for AMZ158.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...SK/RJ
AVIATION...DAG
MARINE...SK/RJ