Greenville, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

108
FXUS62 KMHX 240716
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
216 AM EST Wed Dec 24 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure builds in today through Christmas Day. A warm
front moves through late Friday with next chance for rain. An
arctic cold front moves through late Sunday with a return to
cold by early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
As of 2 AM Wed...

Key Messages...

- Above normal temps with abundant sunshine for Christmas Eve

High pressure will continue to build in from the southwest and
northwest Christmas Eve. This will keep northerly flow at the
surface while low level thicknesses remain above normal. Due to
the strong N winds, there will be quite a temperature gradient
due to onshore flow off the cold ocean/sounds with areas along
the OBX and Inner Banks remaining in the upper 50s for highs,
while the coastal plain and southern NC coast see highs climb
into the upper 60s to low 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
As of 2 AM Wed...

Key Messages...

- Clear skies and light winds will give Santa a smooth ride
  across ENC tonight

- Festively cool with lows in the 30s

- Increasing chances (20-40%) for a period of light rain late
  Christmas Morning (best chances across northern NC)

High pressure will settle nearly overhead tonight, and with
light winds and clear skies, good radiational cooling conditions
will develop. This will allow for temps to drop into the mid to
upper 30s inland and lower 40s along the coast by Christmas
morning.

Clouds increase quickly after sunrise Christmas Day as a weak
disturbance moves across the NC/VA border and offshore. Forecast
trends are showing an increasing chance of a period of light
rain across northern NC (20-40%), with an isolated shower
possible south of US 264. Temperatures will be slow to rise in
the morning due to the clouds, but will jump up into the 60s to
low 70s as skies clear in the afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 2 AM Wed...

Key Messages...

- Light rain possible Friday night as a warm front moves across
  northern NC

- Above normal conditions Saturday and Sunday with temps
  reaching the upper 60s to low 70s

- A pattern changing arctic cold front will move through the
  area Sunday or early Monday with well below normal conditions
  returning through early next week

High pressure ridge over the SE US breaks down temporarily
Friday as an area of low pressure moves across the Mid-Atlantic.
This will bring widespread cloudiness to ENC, and a warm front
will skirt northern NC Friday night with scattered showers
developing along it. Very light precip amounts expected, but
areas along the Albemarle Sound and NOBX could pick up to a
tenth of an inch of rain overnight. It will be cooler due to the
clouds, with highs only reaching the mid to upper 50s.

High pressure ridge rebuilds over the weekend with very warm and
dry conditions expected. Temps will climb to the upper 60s to
low 70s, though chillier conditions are expected along the OBX.

A strong cold front is likely to move through the area Sunday
or early Monday, and will bring much colder conditions to the
Carolinas through early next week. Limited moisture will be
available with this front, and only scattered areas of light
rain expected as it moves through.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 12:15 AM Christmas Eve...Clear skies and light winds
persist overnight. Winds are currently out of the WSW at 5-10
kt and will become light to calm near sunrise. IF fog were to
develop, just before sunrise would be the most likely time, but
probabilistic guidance has trended back from the 10-20% chance
of sub-VFR VIS that it was showing earlier. Northern zones that
received rainfall today would be the most likely candidates, but
confidence in impactful fog is low at this time. Winds will
continue to veer through the day as a dry front passes,
eventually becoming easterly by the end of the period. Skies
will remain clear until the evening when SCT high clouds will
move in from the NW.

Outlook: Generally quiet through the end of the week with VFR
conditions expected for much of ENC.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 2 AM Wed...

Key Messages...

- Small Craft conditions will continue today over the coastal
  waters and eastern sounds after a brief lull this morning

- Another round of Small Craft conditions will develop late
  tomorrow over most of the coastal waters through Friday

- Small Craft Advisories extended to Friday night/Saturday
  morning, but winds and wind directions will be quite variable
  through this period

- Additional rounds of Small craft conditions likely this
  weekend and into early next week

Behind a cold front, winds will continue to slowly subside
until later this morning when a secondary surge of northerly
winds moves north to south across the marine waters and winds
increase to N 20-30 kts with brief gusts to 35 kts. By this
evening winds will be decreasing to under 25 kts, and then by
Christmas morning winds will be E/SE at 5-15 kts. Winds will
quickly restrengthen through the day tomorrow, becoming SW 15-25
kts with gusts to 30 kts over the coastal waters. Winds shift to
the north tomorrow night at 15-25 kts before subsiding to NE
10-20 kts by Friday morning.

Seas will be 3-5 ft until this afternoon, when waves increase to
5-7 ft. Seas then subside to 3-5 late tonight through Christmas
morning. Seas increase again to 5-7 ft late Christmas evening,
and remain high through Friday night.


Outlook: Conditions temporarily improve over the weekend, but
seas may exceed 6 ft occasionally. Winds increase again late
Sunday in advance of a strong cold front with widespread Small
Craft conditions likely developing.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 11 PM EST this
     evening for AMZ135-231.
     Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 2 AM EST
     Saturday for AMZ150.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Saturday for AMZ152-154.
     Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EST Friday for AMZ156-158.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...SGK
SHORT TERM...SGK
LONG TERM...SGK
AVIATION...OJC
MARINE...SGK/CEB