Greenville, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

277
FXUS62 KMHX 222339
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
639 PM EST Sun Feb 22 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Little change to the previous forecast. Low pressure will bring
several impacts tonight into Monday.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Rapidly deepening low pressure off the coast this afternoon
and Monday will bring a host of impacts to the area including
strong winds, minor snowfall accumulations, and minor coastal
flooding.

2) Next front approaches the region late Thursday into Friday

Marine...Gale Warnings remain in effect for all waters
tonight, with a low (near 10%) risk of some Storm-force gusts
over the Gulf Stream. Gusty SW winds develop mid week ahead of
approaching front.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Positively tilted shortwave tracking across the
OH/TN valley will continue to become more negative tilted and
deepen as it phases with a faster moving mid-level disturbance.
At the surface, stalled frontal boundary offshore will serve as
the focal point for cyclogenesis, intensifying this afternoon
and tonight as trough takes on an increasing neutral and
eventually negative tilt through the day. Latest model guidance
continues to favor a strong low traversing quite close to the
coast, eventually lifting northward and hammering the mid-
Atlantic and New England.

Dry across the area this afternoon, though expect precip to re-
develop later this afternoon and evening as low deepens and
more robust lift associated with the deepening shortwave nears
the area. Light rain beginning to blossom over central NC and
southern VA, moving eastward. Precipitation gradually ends from
west to east tonight into early Monday with strong CAA ramping
up behind the departing low as it rapidly deepens off the Mid-
Atlantic coast allowing temps to fall into the 30s. All
available guidance continues to favor a brief change-over to
snow as cooler air gets wrapped in to the area, mainly focused
along the north of Highway 264. Ensembles continue to favor a
modest few tenths of an inch, very close to the previous
forecast, so offered minimal change here. It should be noted a
minority of guidance depicts a bit more robust lift across this
region and suggesting a risk of totals exceeding an inch. Right
now, this is a low probability threat (around a 10-20% chance,
generously). Minimal impacts expected given the sfc temps. Best
chances light snow chances still areas along and north of
Highway 264, with the forecast totals less than 0.5". A
shortwave rotating through the departing low may keep low clouds
and light precip lingering through much of Monday morning and
afternoon, although we will have dried up a decent amount at
that point.

Stronger winds are still expected tonight into Monday, and the
forecast now calls for gusts pushing 45-50 mph across portions
of the Outer Banks. Wind Advisories continue from the northern
Outer Banks southward to down east Carteret Co. In addition, a
Coastal Flood Advisory (1-2 ft agl) continues for sound-side
flooding concerns due to the strong WNWerly winds expected.
Localized ocean overwash will be possible for vulnerable
Hatteras and Ocracoke Islands early Monday, and perhaps into
Tuesday should swell become more organized, but the severity of
this is lower than the sound-side concerns.

KEY MESSAGE 2...The next rainmaker for our area arrives late
mid to late week as another cold front pushes across the
eastern CONUS while weak low pressure lifts across the mid-
Atlantic. Timing on when this boundary will come through has
shifted back and forth as expected this far out, but the most
likely time for rain is Thursday into Friday. With temps well
into the 60s, this system will be all liquid with rainfall
amounts of at least a quarter inch.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Rain with gusty winds moving through the region this evening,
expected to transition to a rain/snow mix or just light snow
north of 264 in the next couple hours. This area is expected to
see less than 0.5" of snowfall accumulation. TAF site flight
cats currently at MVFR will become VFR from SW to NE as the low
moves further away and dry air moves in. All TAF sites should
return to VFR between 0-4Z. Gusty NW winds will persist through
the period with 15-30 kt gusts through late tonight, 15-20 kt
early tomorrow morning, and 20- 25 kt tomorrow afternoon. Winds
will be highest along the Outer Banks where a Wind Advisory is
in effect until 8 AM tomorrow for gusts up to 45 kt.

Outlook: Once flight cats return to VFR tonight, they will remain
predominantly VFR through early next week. A frontal system
Thursday into Friday will bring another round of precip capable
of bringing lowered ceilings and visibilities.

&&

.MARINE...
Strong winds and elevated seas expected tonight into Monday.
Gale Warnings remain in effect for the rivers, sounds and
coastal waters.

Latest obs show NW-W winds 10-20 kt and seas 2-4 ft south of
Hatteras and 4-6 ft north. Boating conditions will quickly
deteriorate this afternoon and evening as rapidly deepening low
pressure strengthens off the coast. Strong Gales will develop
in W-WNW flow behind the low. Peak gusts will be around 35-45
kt, although there remains a low (10% chance) of some Storm-
force gusts primarily over the warmer waters of the Gulf Stream.
Seas will rise in response to around 7-10+ feet, especially
beyond 10 nm offshore. Winds peak overnight, grad diminishing
through the day Mon. SCA conditions will then likely extend into
Tue.

Outlook: Offshore waters likely to remain poor through late
next week as southwesterly winds increase ahead of an
approaching cold front forecast to cross late this week into the
weekend. Gale force winds possible along the Gulf Stream Wed,
with seas building to 5-10 ft.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Wind Advisory until 8 AM EST Monday for NCZ196-203>205.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 6 PM EST Monday for NCZ203>205.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 7 AM EST Monday for AMZ131-230-231.
     Gale Warning until 11 AM EST Monday for AMZ135.
     Gale Warning until 5 AM EST Monday for AMZ136-137.
     Gale Warning until 11 AM EST Monday for AMZ150-152.
     Gale Warning until noon EST Monday for AMZ154-156-158.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CQD/MS
AVIATION...OJC/RJ
MARINE...CQD