Greensboro, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

834
FXUS62 KRAH 230135
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
835 PM EST Sun Dec 22 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Arctic high pressure over the northeastern United States will move
offshore Monday. The next chance for precipitation will come Monday
night into Tuesday as low pressure spins up off the southeastern
United States.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 835 PM Sunday...

Forecast is on track with chilly temperatures dropping into the
teens to low 20s overnight.

As of 204 PM Sunday...

Dry and chilly conditions continue this afternoon as high pressure
over southern Ontario extends light nly flow into central NC. Winds
are still expected to go mostly calm tonight under mostly clear
skies. As such, good radiational cooling is expected with overnight
lows dipping into the mid to upper teens.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 220 PM Sunday...

On Monday morning, high pressure will be centered over New York with
a ridge extending southwest through the Carolinas into Georgia. The
high will move offshore during the day as low pressure moves into
the Great Lakes. The most impactful weather during this time period
will be late Monday night into Tuesday morning. By 00Z Tuesday, a
weak (1024 mb) surface low will start spinning up along the
northeastern coast of Florida. This low will likely be closest to
the forecast area around 1019 mb off Wilmington early Tuesday
afternoon before moving off to the northeast. With the cold high
pressure extending south from New England into the Carolinas Monday,
there will be a good amount of cold air in place locally that should
result in evaporational cooling and could result in precipitation
Monday night initially beginning as something other than rain.
Considering how warm temperatures will be above the surface, snow
will not be a possible precipitation type with this storm. With how
shallow the below-freezing layer will be, precipitation types during
this time period will either be rain or freezing rain; sleet should
also not be a possibility. The GFS continues to be a wet outlier
compared to other models. The two biggest uncertainties with the
forecast will be the spatial extent of the freezing rain and how
much precipitation falls before any freezing rain changes over to
liquid rain. The most likely period for freezing precipitation will
be between midnight and 10am Tuesday. By the afternoon, the low will
be moving to the east and precipitation will be decreasing in
coverage, likely coming to an end by sunset. The primary change with
this forecast package was to expand the chance of precipitation
northwest, grazing portions of the Triad, and along the same lines,
expanding the area that has a chance of freezing rain. While pops
were increased, the only area with likely pops is southern Sampson
County, and the temperatures in that area should remain above
freezing, so all of that precipitation would fall as rain.

As for temperatures, Monday`s highs should be within a few degrees
of today`s values, in the mid 30s to the mid 40s. Values will drop
quickly Monday evening with clear skies before bottoming out around
midnight as cloud cover moves in from the south. temperatures will
then remain steady or slightly increase through the rest of the
night before following a typical diurnal curve Tuesday and Tuesday
night. Monday night`s lows will range from the mid 20s to the mid
30s, and Tuesday`s highs will range from the mid 40s in the east
(where skies will be cloudy all day) to the mid 50s in the west
(where skies should be sunny by the early afternoon). Tuesday
night`s lows will range from the mid 20s to the mid 30s, meaning
that road conditions could be hazardous as rainfall from earlier in
the day could freeze on roads that night.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 207 PM Sunday...

A somewhat fast-paced pattern will be in place across the East
during the early part of the long term period, with a a short wave
ridge set to move across the Southeast on Wednesday providing dry
weather.  But it will be quickly followed by a dampening short wave
trough crossing the Mid Atlantic region on Thursday.  Given that
dampening trend, have opted to remove PoPs for Thursday.  Seasonable
temps both day.

A ridge will then set up over the eastern US Friday and remain
through much of the weekend, providing generally fair and seasonable
weather.  Have opted to keep PoPs aob climo during that time.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 620 PM Sunday...

24 hour TAF period: High confidence VFR conditions will prevail
through the TAF period. A few passing high clouds are expected
across the northern terminals this evening, giving way to clear
skies tonight. Calm to light and variable winds through tonight,
increasing into the 4-8 kt range Mon aft.

Outlook: A period of light precipitation (rain and/or fzra) and sub-
VFR conditions still possible Mon night into Tue, mainly at KFAY,
KRWI, and KRDU, as an area of low pressure tracks newd along the NC
coast. Also, a brief period of sub-VFR cigs possible Wed night/Thu
as a mid/upper level disturbance moves through the area. Otherwise,
VFR conditions are expected through Fri.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Green
NEAR TERM...CA/Luchetti
SHORT TERM...Green
LONG TERM...np
AVIATION...KC