Greensboro, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

422
FXUS62 KRAH 080743
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
243 AM EST Fri Nov 8 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A back-door cold front will sag slowly south across NC through the
afternoon and early evening. High pressure will build into the area
from the north tonight and Saturday. Moisture will begin to
overspread the area from the west Sunday, ahead of a cold front that
will move through the area Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
As of 200 AM Friday...

...Areas of Dense Fog across southern and central NC this Morning...

A back-door cold front, which currently extends across southern VA,
will sag slowly south across the area through the afternoon. In it`w
wake, a ~1030 mb surface high over the Great Lakes will build south
and east into the region tonight and into Saturday.

Very moist/humid low-levels in place ahead of the front has allowed
for the development of dense fog across the area, especially across
the southern half (south of HWY 64). A Dense Fog Advisory has been
issued for these areas through 9 am. Will continue to monitor to for
possible northward expansion.

Limited by the very dry mid and upper levels, latest hi-res model
guidance continues to depict isolated showers and/or sprinkles this
morning and through the afternoon as the front slips south. So far,
convection has been next to none. Thus, reality is under performing
and that will likely be the case until mid to late morning, when
weak buoyancy develops via tempered heating/insolation.

Low-level post frontal dry air advection will lead to north-south
scouring out of the morning fog and stratus. Highs today ranging
from mid/upper 70s across the north, with lower 80s elsewhere.

Substantial sfc pressures and CAA from the north will get underway
tonight. While this will be a marked cool down from the past several
days, lows tonight will still average 7 to 12 degrees above normal.
Lows ranging from mid/upper 40s north to lower/mid 50s south.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 200 AM Friday...

Aloft, the amplifying sub-tropical ridge will progress eastward
through the eastern US Sat/Sat night, while a low lifts newd from
the central Plains to the upper MS Valley. At the surface, high
pressure will continue ridging swd through the area Sat/Sat night as
the center of the ~1029mb high progresses esewd from the eastern
Great Lakes through the Northeast US. Expect the weather to be dry
Sat/Sat night. Temperatures should be near to slightly above normal,
with highs in the low/mid 60s NE to upper 60s SW. Lows are a bit
trickier, as increasing cloud cover Sat night may dampen the degree
of radiational cooling. Low level thicknesses are forecast to be in
the 1340-1355 meter range (from NW to SE), with generally calm to
light winds, especially across the north and northwest. For now,
expect lows generally in the low mid 40s, with some upper 30s
possible in the usual cooler spots and where the clouds are latest
to fill in.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 240 AM Friday...

Aloft, the sub-tropical ridge will progress eastward off the East
Coast on Sun, while the low continues enewd through the upper MS
Valley and into the Great Lakes. As the low moves ewd through the
Great Lakes and into southeast Canada Sun night/Mon, the attendant
trough will move eastward through the mid-Atlantic and Carolinas,
then shift offshore Mon eve/night. There will likely be a secondary
low tracking ewd across southern Canada Mon/Mon night, however the
medium-range guidance varies wrt how far south the attendant trough
will extend. Regardless, the trough will likely amplify swd along
but off the East Coast late Tue/Tue night. This could also impact
the strength/timing of the sub-tropical ridge as it approaches from
the west Tue/Tue night and through the area Wed/Wed night. The next
potential weather system will follow the ridge, but details remain
too uncertain for specifics at this time. At the surface, as the
high moves out over the Atlantic on Sun the ridge should gradually
weaken, holding on longest over the northwest Piedmont. As the next
cold front approaches from the west Sun night/Mon, a pre-frontal
trough will strengthen over the area, eroding what is left of the
ridge. The front should move sewd through the area late Mon/Mon
night, with Canadian high pressure ridging swd into the area for Tue
and Wed. There could be another fropa Thu/Thu night, but details
remain unclear.

Precipitation: The best chance for rain in the extended forecast
will be ahead of the cold front late Sun through Mon/Mon night.
Initially, the rain may be more stratiform in nature owing to
isentropic lift as warm moist air overruns the lingering ridge. This
could set up a period of CAD over the northwest Piedmont late
Sun/Sun night. If a CAD wedge does take hold, it should erode early
Mon as the pre-frontal trough strengthens. Precipitation should then
become more showery in nature, moving sewd through the area ahead of
the front. Coverage and amounts remain a bit uncertain at this time.

As for temperatures, if the CAD scenario plays out, temperatures may
need to be lowered in the NW Sun into Mon, but for now expect highs
Sun ranging from around 60 degrees NW to low 70s SE and lows Sun
night in the mid 50s to low 60s SE. Assuming the wedge erodes Mon,
highs should range from low/mid 70s north to mid/upper 70s south.
Temperatures should gradually decrease through mid-week, but
generally remain above normal.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 1250 AM Friday...

A moist and muggy airmass in place ahead of a slow moving back-door
cold front will support the development of stratus across the north
and fog across the south. The lowest restrictions are expected
across southern portions of the forecast, at KFAY, where the
development of dense fog could lead to a period of LIFR restrictions
between 08 to 13z. At the remaining TAF sites, a mixture of stratus
and fog will support IFR to MVFR restrictions.

The cold front will sag slowly through the area through the
afternoon, with dry air advection leading to a return to VFR
conditions from north to south, with KFAY being the last TAF site to
lift to VFR by 20-21z. Additionally, isolated showers or sprinkles
will be possible along the front.

Outlook: VFR conditions are expected this evening through early
Sunday. Moisture advection in advance of a cold front will bring
increasing rain chances and associated sub-VFR restrictions from
west to east Sunday and Sunday night. Adverse aviation conditions
will continue into Monday with additional showers as the front moves
east through the area. VFR conditions should return by Tuesday.


&&


.CLIMATE...

Record High Minimum Temperatures:

November 8:
KGSO: 57/1975
KRDU: 64/1895
KFAY: 65/1946


.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM EST this morning for NCZ038>042-
073>078-083>086-088-089.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CBL
NEAR TERM...CBL
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...CBL
CLIMATE...RAH