Garner, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

714
FXUS62 KRAH 101937
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
335 PM EDT Tue Jun 10 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak front across Virginia and the western Carolinas will waver
back and forth slightly but hold fairly steady through Thursday,
before washing out on Friday. Bermuda high pressure will then build
over and off the Carolina coast into early next week, bringing warm
and humid conditions.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 300 PM Tuesday...

* Coverage of showers and storms will continue to increase, peaking
  late afternoon through evening before exiting slowly E overnight.

* Isolated strong to severe storms producing straight-line wind
  gusts remain possible through this evening.

Convective coverage has been a bit sparse so far, but the MCV-
induced storm cluster that was over SE SC this morning has raced NE
and will continue tracking up through our eastern sections including
the far E Sandhills and E Coastal Plain for the next few hours. The
thermodynamic environment ahead of these storms is decent, 1500-2000
J/kg of SBCAPE and 25-30 kt of effective bulk shear so far according
to RAP-based analyses, and isolated strong to severe wind gusts
remain possible, although the lower DCAPE over the Coastal Plain may
limit the threat somewhat, as will the modest lapse rates in the mid
levels noted on morning upstream soundings and on RAP soundings, and
the suppression of the higher deep layer bulk shear to our N.
Additional but more isolated convection continues to fire to the NW
and N of this cluster over the E Piedmont/W Coastal Plain, perhaps
focused on a differential heating zone, while another band of
congested cu over the NC Foothills is already bearing fruit in the
form of isolated storms to our W. With no major impediment,
scattered showers and storms should continue to proliferate through
the afternoon, reaching peak coverage by early evening, with a slow
eastward push and downturn in coverage and intensity overnight, with
the ultimate loss in heating and subsequent lowering CAPE/rising
CINH. Will carry good coverage of showers and storms through the
evening, then pops decrease W to E late this evening through tonight
as shortwave troughs and MCVs within the mean longwave trough base
shift to our NE and NNE overnight, amidst decreasing and flattening
flow aloft and with an eastward nudge of above-normal PWs. Isolated
high rain totals remain possible, given a steepening LCL-0C depth
and potential for training discrete cells, but should not be a
widespread issue due to coverage and sufficiently swift cell motion.
After highs mostly in the low-mid 80s, expect lows tonight to be in
the mid 60s to lower 70s. -GIH

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 335 PM Tuesday...

* Shower/storm chances will be lower tomorrow, mainly S and E of the
  Triangle, with lower intensity expected.

The longwave trough over E NOAM will be overtaken Wed by building
ridging aloft. The trailing weak southern portion of the trough axis
from New England into NW NC Wed morning will quickly yield to the
Bermuda ridge building westward over the Southeast and Carolina
coast through Wed night. The surface frontal zone, aligned roughly
along the W edge of the above-normal PW, should sit nearly steady
over the NC Piedmont through Wed, but with a very weak wind field
and rising heights aloft, gradual frontolysis is likely, with a
morphing to a simple lee pressure trough by Wed night. The 2" PWs
are likely to push to our E and SE by late Wed, with below-normal
values spreading into areas W of Hwy 1, along with lower surface
dewpoints. Lingering higher dewpoints along with partial sunshine in
the E will support marginal to mdt SBCAPE Wed mainly S and E of the
Triangle, but with decreasing deep moisture and a trend to poor mid
level flow, any convection across our SE should be fairly run-of-the-
mill, although a slower storm motion and a greater chance of more
meandering cells driven by outflow and along sea breezes may still
pose a threat for isolated higher rainfall totals in our far SE.
Will carry chance pops, mainly afternoon, for areas from Raleigh S
and E, pushing SE in the evening and ending entirely overnight, with
decreasing clouds W to E. Expect highs of 85-90 and lows 65-70. -GIH

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 235 PM Tuesday...

* After a brief decrease in rain chances on Thursday, chances of
  mainly afternoon and evening showers and storms increase later in
  the week into early next week.
* Humidity values increase with surface dew points reaching the
  lower to mid 70s at times producing max heat index values in the
  mid to upper 90s and moderate heat risk across southern and
  eastern areas over the weekend into early next week.

A cold front lingering across the eastern Carolinas early Thursday
will dissipate into Friday as a Bermuda high pressure system extends
west into the southeastern U.S. over the weekend into early next
week. Some modest lee troughing may develop across VA into northern
NC on Monday and Tuesday with a stronger west to east cold front
dropping into the Great Lakes and mid-Atlantic. Further aloft,
ridging across the Southeast and FL combined with troughing across
the Great Lakes and MS Valley will result in a feed of warm moist
air into the region. PW values will increase from 1.0 to 1.5 inches
on Thursday to 2.0 to 2.5 inches late Friday into Saturday which is
about 150-175% of normal before values trail off a bit early next
week.

The result will be an active pattern featuring largely diurnally
driven showers and thunderstorms across the area. The best storm
chances appear to be focused on the Friday through Monday period
with PoPs of 50-60%. While the text forecast may read and weather
apps may show icons of storms thru the period, it wont rain the
whole time nor each day but rain chances will be above climatology
and likely more focused on the Piedmont and Coastal Plain areas.

Highs will average 2 to 6 degrees above average and range in the mid
80s to around 90. With a southwesterly flow it will be humid with
dew points mainly ranging in the upper 60s to mid 70s. This will
keep overnight lows elevated, generally 5 to 10 degrees above
average with lows mainly in the lower 70s with a few upper 60s in
the Triad and near the VA border and mid 70s across southeastern
areas. The combination of the heat and humidity will result in max
heat index values in the mid to upper 90s and moderate heat risk
across southern and eastern areas over the weekend into early next
week. -Blaes
&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 135 PM Tuesday...

24 hour TAF period: Showers and storms associated with a mid-level
disturbance lifting newd across ern SC and into ern NC may impact
KFAY in the first few hours of the TAF period, with lesser
confidence of reaching KRWI but possible if they hold together.
Expect MVFR cigs to prevail at KFAY until the storms move out, with
reduced vsbys and gusty winds if the storms move over the terminal.
Otherwise, sly to swly winds and VFR conditions expected through the
evening, with showers/storms developing along, and moving across
central NC ahead of a cold front tonight. Confidence on storms
occurring at a given terminal and timing that occurrence remains
somewhat low at this time. MVFR/IFR cigs possible again, mainly
ahead/east of the front (which should stall over the area). Cigs
should lift/scatter out Wed morn. Light winds will veer to nely/ely
in the wake of the front, but remain swly ahead/east of it, through
the TAF period.

Outlook: With the cold front stalled over the area, expect largely
dry, VFR conditions expected west of the front, while diurnally
driven convection will be possible to the east on Wed. As the front
lifts back across the area on Thu, chances for aft/eve convection
will return Thu through the weekend, accompanied by the usual
restrictions. Early morning fog/low stratus will also be possible
each night/morn, especially at locations where rain occurs.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Hartfield
NEAR TERM...Hartfield
SHORT TERM...Hartfield
LONG TERM...Blaes
AVIATION...KC