Concord, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

830
FXUS62 KGSP 091044
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
644 AM EDT Mon Jun 9 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms return late this afternoon and
evening, with a quieter pattern emerging through mid-week. Another
round of unsettled weather could return toward the end of the week
and into next weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 630 AM: No major changes this update. Today, the CWA will
remain on the dry side of a weak boundary across central latitudes
of GA and SC. Prog soundings around the region depict a weak capping
inversion. Continued sunny skies will allow temps to warm a few
degrees above normal, slightly warmer than Sunday. Dewpoints do
not look to recover through peak heating, so convective initiation
looks isolated at best through peak heating, and PoPs in fact are
10% or below over most of western NC until late afternoon. Deep
upper cyclone embedded in shortwave will move thru the Great
Lakes and upper MS Valley region today; moisture return develops
in the OH/TN valleys ahead of the associated cold front, and will
reinforce low-level SW flow which will help activate the front
to our south during the late afternoon and evening. Heights also
accordingly fall over the CWA late in the day or this evening,
permitting an uptick in convective potential after 21z.

An MCV from Southern Plains convection early this morning will
round the base of the trough and progress east into MS/AL/GA
by late afternoon, where it may enhance convective development
along the activating boundary. Some of that activity may develop
in GA and then propagate northeast into our CWA, if convection
does not develop locally. Altogether, PoPs develop first in our
far southern zones and spread northward through the evening,
with chances also developing over the mountains as the cold front
approaches from the west. Even the characteristically "hot" NAM
develops only up to 900-1600 J/kg of MUCAPE north of the warm front
this evening. Effective shear of 20-30 kt may allow some degree
of organization. CAMs depict only loose clusters in our CWA which
appears to be backed up by the marginally supportive environmental
factors. Dry midlevels could however permit some decent downdrafts
and an isolated threat of severe winds even without an MCS forming
as some earlier guidance had suggested. SPC Day 1 Slight Risk
is very similar to the old Day 2, but feel Marginal Risk would
probably have been more appropriate. NAM does depict a mesolow
forming where the cold front meets the more unstable air on the warm
side of the boundary, which does produce better low-level helicity,
but no other model depicts such, and that does not appear to have
been a factor in the outlook. We will message only a low-end severe
threat in the HWO.

Precip chances taper from west to east in the latter half of tonight
as the trough axis shifts east, but at least a slight chance still
lingers to daybreak Tue in the mountains and foothills. Low clouds
and possibly some fog look to develop over the SE half of the CWA
tonight as a result of the warm front working into that area. Mins
will be several degrees above normal there, and closer to normal
in the mountains.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 228 AM Monday: A rather benign period of weather will return
to the region Tuesday and Wednesday as a deep trough extending from
the Great Lakes to the Gulf Coast lifts away from the area.
Downslope flow and increasing subsidence in the wake of the passage
of the trough axis will allow for dry conditions within a post
frontal airmass. A couple isolated showers cannot be ruled out
Tuesday with the best chance for seeing a few raindrops across the
mountains and east of I-77, but this will by far be the exception
and not the rule. Heights rise on Wednesday as flat and broad upper
riding builds across the southeast states. The frontal boundary will
remain displaced south of the area with any rain chances located
closer to the coast and Gulf on the moist side of the boundary.
Temperatures will seasonable and around normal for early to mid June.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 242 AM Monday: The 00z suite of guidance remains in generally
good agreement that a noticeable pattern change will occur late week
into the weekend with a return to much wetter conditions. A Bermuda
ridge becomes established just off the southeast coast with a return
of south/southwest flow into the Southern Appalachians. Northward
retreat of the stalled boundary and subsequent moisture return will
entrench a warm and humid airmass across the region. Several
perturbations lifting around the Bermuda high will interact with the
deep moisture and help foster scattered to numerous diurnally driven
showers and thunderstorms each day. Coverage may be limited to the
southern half of the area on Thursday as the boundary makes its
northward retreat, but the entire area will be in play Friday
through the weekend. As with any summertime convection, wet
microburst potential will have to be assessed on a daily basis, but
weak flow and poor lapse rates will generally preclude an organized
threat for severe weather.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: VFR today with diurnal cumulus breaking
out around midday. Light SW winds with occasional low-end gusts,
15-18 kt. A capping inversion is likely to inhibit deep convection
through mid-afternoon, but that looks to erode as upper trough
approaches from the west. An activating warm front in the Deep
South may focus convective initiation, and TSRA may propagate from
GA into SC and far SW NC by late aftn or early evening. Scattered
SHRA/TSRA may also develop locally with the aid of the trough and as
the front activates as a warm front and creeps northward. PROB30s
handle these possibilities with confidence higher on resulting
restrictions at the SC sites (KGSP/KGMU/KAND). The warm front will
foster low MVFR to IFR stratus forming after 06z, with all sites
except KHKY likely to be affected. Stratus will scatter out during
the mid to late morning Tue at KCLT.

Outlook: Mostly VFR Tuesday.  There will be potential for late
night and early morning fog and low stratus restrictions each day.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Wimberley
NEAR TERM...Wimberley
SHORT TERM...TW
LONG TERM...TW
AVIATION...Wimberley