Clayton, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

917
FXUS62 KRAH 100756
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
350 AM EDT Tue Jun 10 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
An weakening upper level trough will cross the region today and
tonight, followed by weak cold front that will stall over eastern NC
on Wednesday.  The cold front will then dissipate through the end of
the week as high pressure shifts across the region to off the
Southeast coast over the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 345 AM Tuesday...

* Marginal Risk for severe storms this afternoon and evening.

A deep mid level trough will move across the TN and OH valleys today
then slightly weaken as it moves across the Mid-Atlantic region this
afternoon and evening. At the surface a cold front slowly progresses
east through the day, showers and storms are expected to develop
again ahead and along the boundary. Hi-Res model data shows most of
today to be dry with the increase chance of storms early this
afternoon in the NW Piedmont and expanding east through the late
afternoon and evening hours. There is good instability along with
moisture, therefore SPC has all of the CWA in a Marginal Risk for
severe storms today. Most of the storms are expected to be sub
severe, but a few stronger storms within the main line could produce
damaging wind gusts. Most models are showing the line/cluster of
storms progress east across the Triad region between in late
afternoon early evening and then across the Triangle region and
Coastal Plain during the evening and early overnight hours.  The
frontal boundary could stall across the Sandhills and Coastal Plain
region, thus kept in a 20-30% PoP for the SE region through early
Wednesday morning. Temperatures ahead of the front will be warm and
muggy with highs in the mid/upper 80s and lows in the upper 60s to
low 70s.


&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 345 AM Tuesday...

The deamplifying upper trough will shift east of the area on
Wednesday. A cold front will slip into the area from the west, but
models continue to trend westward with where it eventually hangs up,
likely over the coastal plain.

Drier air will filter into the western Piedmont and higher PW
greater than 1.5" will be shunted east toward the coast.  The
frontal zone and seabreeze should be the main triggers for
convection.  Dewpoints in the the upper 60s favor higher CAPE in the
coastal plain as well. Weaker deep layer wind fields favor more
pulse storms and a primary threat of damaging winds.

Highs will be near normal - 86-88. Lows 66-70

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 345 AM Tuesday... Hartfield The frontal zone over eastern NC
will essentially wash out as high pressure shifts across the area
and then off the Southeast coast by the end of the week.  This will
establish a Bermuda high and southerly return flow across the area
through the weekend.  A shortwave or weak cut off low over the
southern plains is forecast to lift to toward the OH Valley and
central Appalachians by early next week.

Warm moist return flow is forecast to bring an anomalously moist
airmass (150-200 % of normal) across the region, which will result
in a marked increase in storm chances Fri-Mon, with guidance
indicating 50-70% chances each day. We will lean toward the lower
end of probabilities given lack of larger forcing and convection
should be diurnal most days.  WPC 7 day QPF suggests near to above
normal precipitation.

Highs will continue to run within a few degrees of normal in the mid
and 80s, with lows in the lower 70s.

 &&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 200 AM Tuesday..

A mixture of VFR and MVFR conditions are being observed as a line of
showers moves across the region. The line is dissipating with the
heavier shower activity coming to an end. As this line clears the
region in the next couple hours, periods of IFR to MVFR ceilings are
expected to be present overnight through morning. Most of the day
today is expected to be VFR after the morning low stratus and fog
lift/move out of the area. Another line/cluster of storms is
expected to develop this afternoon and evening therefore added
PROB30s everywhere with thunderstorms associated with lowered
visibilities and ceilings. Timing for the NW Piedmont sites is
expected to be late afternoon while other sites will be in the
evening hours. Like yesterday, shower activity will last in the late
overnight hours with varying reduced visibilities and ceilings most
of which will be sub-VFR conditions. Winds will be southwesterly 5-
10kts with infrequent gusts of 10-15kts.

Outlook: A cold front will move into and possibly stall over, the
area Tue eve night behind the convection, with largely dry, VFR
conditions expected in its wake through at least Wed night. Chances
for aft/eve convection increase from Thu-Sat, accompanied by the
usual restrictions.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BLS
NEAR TERM...CA
SHORT TERM...BLS
LONG TERM...BLS
AVIATION...CA