Chapel Hill, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast
Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation
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NWS Forecast for Chapel Hill NC
National Weather Service Forecast for:
Chapel Hill NC
Issued by: National Weather Service Raleigh, NC |
Updated: 4:39 am EDT Jul 16, 2025 |
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Overnight
 Slight Chance T-storms
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Wednesday
 Partly Sunny then Chance T-storms
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Wednesday Night
 Chance T-storms then Partly Cloudy
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Thursday
 Mostly Sunny then Chance T-storms
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Thursday Night
 Chance T-storms then Partly Cloudy
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Friday
 Sunny then Chance T-storms
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Friday Night
 Chance T-storms then Mostly Cloudy
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Saturday
 Mostly Sunny then Chance T-storms
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Saturday Night
 Chance T-storms
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Lo 74 °F |
Hi 91 °F |
Lo 75 °F |
Hi 93 °F |
Lo 77 °F |
Hi 95 °F |
Lo 75 °F |
Hi 93 °F |
Lo 74 °F |
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Hazardous Weather Outlook
Overnight
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A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 74. Light south wind. Chance of precipitation is 20%. |
Wednesday
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A chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly after 3pm. Partly sunny, with a high near 91. Heat index values as high as 103. Southwest wind 6 to 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%. |
Wednesday Night
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A chance of showers and thunderstorms before 8pm. Partly cloudy, with a low around 75. South wind around 6 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. |
Thursday
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A chance of showers and thunderstorms after 2pm. Mostly sunny, with a high near 93. Heat index values as high as 106. Southwest wind around 9 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. |
Thursday Night
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A chance of showers and thunderstorms before 8pm. Partly cloudy, with a low around 77. Southwest wind around 5 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. |
Friday
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A chance of showers and thunderstorms after 2pm. Mostly sunny, with a high near 95. Chance of precipitation is 40%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms. |
Friday Night
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A chance of showers and thunderstorms before 8pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 75. Chance of precipitation is 30%. |
Saturday
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A chance of showers and thunderstorms after 2pm. Mostly sunny, with a high near 93. Chance of precipitation is 40%. |
Saturday Night
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A chance of showers and thunderstorms before 2am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 74. Chance of precipitation is 30%. |
Sunday
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A chance of showers and thunderstorms after 2pm. Mostly sunny, with a high near 93. Chance of precipitation is 40%. |
Sunday Night
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A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly cloudy, with a low around 75. Chance of precipitation is 30%. |
Monday
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A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly sunny, with a high near 91. Chance of precipitation is 50%. |
Monday Night
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A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 73. Chance of precipitation is 40%. |
Tuesday
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A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny, with a high near 89. Chance of precipitation is 50%. |
Forecast from NOAA-NWS
for Chapel Hill NC.
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Weather Forecast Discussion
606
FXUS62 KRAH 160811
AFDRAH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
410 AM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Sub-tropical high pressure will extend from near Bermuda to the
Carolinas throughout the week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 155 AM Wednesday...
Lower chance of PM storms, but remaining hot and humid.
The highest moisture levels will gradually shift a bit west and
north today with the upper ridge building in the southeast U.S. from
off the SW Atlantic. This should limit the convection to widely
scattered PM activity. The highest probabilities will be along the
SE Coastal Plain (sea breeze) and tucked up along the Blue Ridge.
Highs will be in the upper 80s to lower 90s with partly to mostly
sunny afternoon skies. Lows generally in the lower 70s west and mid
70s east.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 310 AM Wednesday...
Hotter and humid weather continues...
Widely scattered PM thunderstorms.
The westward extension of the Bermuda high will extend over NC on
Thursday. There will be a bit of a suppression of convection
chances. However, widely scattered thunderstorms are still expected
during the late afternoon through mid-evening mainly over the
Piedmont. Highs will warm into the lower to mid 90s. Lows will be in
the mid to upper 70s.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 400 AM Wednesday...
* Hot, with little overnight relief until perhaps Sat night, with
mainly Moderate to Major HeatRisk (pockets of Extreme possible in
the Sandhills) through the weekend
* Heat Advisory criteria heat will be most likely and prolonged
across the Sandhills and srn and cntl Coastal Plain, and probably
into at least parts of the adjacent srn through ne Piedmont and
nrn Coastal Plain on Fri
The center of a sub-tropical anticyclone at 500 mb will progress
from the swrn N. Atlantic (near Grand Bahama at 12Z Fri) to the nrn
Gulf/lwr MS Valley through the weekend, then nwd into the mid-South
through mid-week. As it does so, Grand Ensemble guidance continues
to depict a weakness between the center of that ridge and another
forecast to progress across the sub-tropical N. Atlantic. Such a
solution would cause mid/upr-level flow to assume a more wnwly
component and direct shortwave impulses and/or MCVs into at least
the nrn half of NC by Sat through early next week.
At the surface, high pressure will span from near Bermuda to the
South Atlantic coast, with an Appalachian lee (Piedmont) trough on
its wrn/nwrn periphery. Model guidance also continues to indicate a
convective outflow-reinforced front will settle across VA Fri and
perhaps into nrn NC by Sat, as the aforementioned flow aloft veers
and introduces the possibility of very weakly falling heights aloft.
The outflow-renforced and modulated front may then waver over the
srn Middle Atlantic, and into especially nrn NC, through early next
week.
The increasingly-influential, subsident ridging aloft will cause an
already hot airmass to further heat to the south of the outflow-
reinforced front, where high temperatures will be well into the 90s
through most of the forecast period. Occasional reprieve from the
heat, and closer to average highs in the upr 80s to around 90, will
be possible poleward of the aforementioned front Sat onward. The
probability of showers and storms will be favored over the nrn half
of NC through the period, where the front will be favored to waver
and related outflow to influence localized lift.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 150 AM Wednesday...
Model guidance continues to indicate the potential for areas of low
stratus to develop between 08Z to 12z, leading to a period of MVFR
to IFR restrictions. These restrictions should lift by mid to late
Wednesday morning (13 to 15z), returning conditions to VFR.
Shower and storm coverage is expected to be lower this afternoon
and evening. The best chances should focused along the inland-moving
seabreeze, possibly impacting the eastern terminals late day
(KRWI and KFAY).
Outlook: Sub-tropical high pressure over the western Atlantic will
support a typical summertime pattern of isolated to scattered
afternoon and evening thunderstorms, along with patchy
late night and early morning fog and stratus through the end of the
week.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Badgett/MWS
NEAR TERM...Badgett
SHORT TERM...Badgett
LONG TERM...MWS
AVIATION...Badgett
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