Chapel Hill, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

772
FXUS62 KRAH 140725
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
324 AM EDT Thu Aug 14 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A series of disturbances in anomalously moist, west southwesterly
flow aloft will move across the Carolinas through tonight. An area
of low pressure and weak, backdoor cold front will move across NC on
Friday, with following dry and seasonably warm high pressure for the
weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 250 AM Thursday...

*Periods of showers and storms will continue through this evening
with isolated flooding possible

A series of upper level disturbances moving through a very moist
airmass(PWATs 2-2.5+ standard deviations) will keep periods of
showers and storms through this evening. One disturbance is
supporting a weakening cluster of showers/storms over the NW
Piedmont. Additional isolated to widely scattered convection remains
possible through daybreak.

A well-defined MCV currently over GA will lift NE across the area
midday into the early evening. In response to this feature, a weak
sfc wave reflection is expected to develop over southeastern NC,
while a surface trough lingers along the lee of the southern
Appalachians and a cold front begins to sag south into the southern
Mid-Atlantic states.

The greatest convective coverage and heavy rain threat is expected
this afternoon and evening over the far southern/southeastern zones,
where stronger moisture flux convergence will set up near the
developing sfc wave. A secondary area of more numerous storm
coverage and potential for heavy rain is across the far NE zones,
near the approaching cold front. While localized 1-2" are possible,
HREF LPPM/PPM probability for 1in/3hr rainfall remain low and mainly
confined to the northeast and eastern edges of the forecast area. As
such, no Flood Watch will be issued at this time.

Elsewhere, convection will be more scattered and diurnally driven,
with most activity diminishing before midnight.

Under partly to mostly cloudy skies, highs will reach the mid to
upper 80s. Lows tonight 70-75 with areas of low clouds/stratus apt
to develop across the eastern half of the forecast area.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 AM Thursday...

* Marginal risk of excessive rainfall Friday.

Friday morning a short wave trough moving just off the NC coast
Friday is expected to develop a weak area of low pressure offshore.
PW values of 2+ inches will slightly shift east but largely remain
across the Sandhills and Coastal Plain which could result in heavy
rain rates resulting in some isolated flash flooding. WPC has all of
Central NC in a Marginal Risk (1/4) for Friday therefore isolated
flash flooding could occur anywhere, but the best chance will be in
the east. Showers and storms will be very scattered through the
afternoon and early evening with PoPs ranging from 30-40% across the
region. Forcing will be weak and severe storms are not expected,
however a few isolated stronger storms could be possible.
Temperatures will vary across the region with highs in the mid to
upper 80s in the north, and upper 80s to low 90s across the south.
Lows in the 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 320 AM Thursday...

*Drier over the weekend and early next week.
*Isolated afternoon showers and storms return mid to late week.

As an upper level ridge builds across the MS valley and into the Mid-
Atlantic over the weekend and into next week, drier conditions are
expected. High pressure at the surface will help tame storm chances
to a minimum over the weekend but afternoon sea breeze could result
a few showers and isolated storms. A weak surface boundary will try
and move across the region mid-week with afternoon isolated storm
chances expected to return Tuesday and Wednesday. This same frontal
boundary is expected to also help keep TC Erin offshore, but still
too far out in time. Watching trends closely with the interactions
of the two features.

Temperatures are expected to be near or just above normal with highs
each day in the upper 80s to low 90s. Lows will range from upper 60s
to low 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 120 AM Thursday...

Upper level disturbances moving through the region will continue to
support periods of showers and storms through this evening. A small
storm cluster and associated sub-VFR restrictions will impact KINT
and KGSO over the next hour. Additional showers and storms could
affect other TAF locations overnight, but confidence is too low to
include in the TAFs at this time.

Recent model guidance suggests less sub-VFR stratus/low cloud
development overnight, with predominately VFR conditions expected
through daybreak.

A well-defined MCV currently over GA will track NE across the area
midday into the early evening. Greater convective coverage is
expected at KFAY, with more scattered, diurnally driven activity
possible at the other terminals.

This evening and tonight:, IFR-MVFR stratus is possible, especially
across eastern TAF sites near a weak sfc low and accompanying
moisture pooling.

Outlook: Lower coverage of diurnally driven showers and storms
Friday into the weekend. Morning fog and/or low stratus will also be
possible each day.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...CBL
SHORT TERM...CA
LONG TERM...CA
AVIATION...CBL