Cary, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

201
FXUS62 KRAH 121903
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
300 PM EDT Thu Jun 12 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Bermuda high pressure will build west into the region through early
next week, bringing warm and humid conditions.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 220 PM Thursday...

Satellite imagery and radar is starting to become a little more
active, especially within the last hour. Convection has become more
congealed inland of SC in association with the sea breeze and over
northern GA, eastern TN and western NC. There do exist also some
agitated cumulus over several portions of central NC, with isolated
pockets of showers developing over the Piedmont. The one area that
has been somewhat void of any cu is over the Triad, where dewpoints
have mixed out to the upper 50s and lower 60s.

Much of the 12Z HREF members indicate scattered showers and storms
bubbling up into the Sandhills and southern Piedmont tied to the sea
breeze and upstream from the CLT area tied to increasing warm and
moist/unstable flow tied to some subtle mid-level perturbations.
This forecast appears on track, with the NSSL/ARW having probably
the best depiction of conditions thus far. Thus, expect coverage of
storms to increase from late this afternoon into mid to perhaps late
evening. Areas that will get worked over from outflows should see
coverage lessen by late evening and the overnight hours. While shear
is weak at about 20 kts from 0-6 km, MLCAPE upwards of 2000-2500
J/kg and DCAPE upwards of 1200 J/kg will support a low-end severe
risk of some locally damaging winds. SPC presently has a marginal
out west of our area but given the conditions, would not be
surprised if a few isolated cells could reach severe limits.
Isolated pockets of heavy rainfall are also possible in the southern
Piedmont.

We generally think storm chances should lessen by the late evening
and overnight hours owing to nocturnal stabilization, however
several HREF members are indicating upstream convection near CLT to
reach the western Piedmont overnight to early Fri. This would appear
tied to perhaps a weak disturbance over GA, though confidence is low
on coverage and intensity. Low temperatures should be in the upper
60s to low 70s. Guidance is not overly impressed for fog
development, though cannot rule it out if certain areas that see
rainfall can clear out overnight. Mid-level clouds may end up
hampering this, however.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 153 PM Thursday...

* Unsettled continues with increasing coverage showers and storms

An upper ridge will set up over Florida and the Southeast coast by
Friday, while a weak cutoff low drifts over the Arklatex region,
putting most of the Deep South and Southeast in warm and moisture
return flow around a Bermuda high. Overall forcing for accent will
be weak and CAPE may be hindered by multilayer cloud cover, but weak
capping and the influx of moisture will support scattered to
numerous showers and storms, either from ongoing from Thursday night
or initiating fairly early on Friday. Confidence in favored areas of
central NC for the best coverage of storms is low, but there is some
signal that the southern Piedmont/Sandhills may be favored. While
model guidance does not indicate significantly high QPF overall,  PW
is forecast to increase from around 1 inch today to as much as 2.25
inches on Friday, which combined with nearly unidirectional weak
flows and weak MBE velocities may support isolated flooding
concerns.  High temps once again ranging from 83 to 88.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
As of 300 PM Thursday...

* Chances of mainly afternoon and evening showers and storms
  increase through early next week. Isolated flooding may become a
  concern after multiple days of rainfall.


A compact upper low currently positioned over the ARKLATEX region
will gradually open into a wave as it shifts eastward, reaching the
area this weekend into early next week. This will set up a deep SWLY
flow between the weakening trough and a meandering subtropical
ridging meandering off the Florida coast. This pattern will funnel
anomalously moist air into the region, with PWATs of 2-2.25",
placing values in the 95-98th percentile for June.

Although forcing will remain weak---mainly in the form of DPVA and
passing weak impulses or possible MCVs, mesoscale features such as
weak sfc convergence along a weak sfc boundary and inland
penetrating sea-breezes will aid in generating scattered to numerous
diurnally driven showers and storms each afternoon and evening from
Saturday through Monday.

Beyond Monday, guidance diverges slightly on the evolution of the
subtropical ridge.  Some models suggest ridging may re-establish ,
potentially lowering PoPs by midweek. However, additional weak mid-
level shortwave troughs approaching from the west could still
maintain daily convective rain chances through Wednesday.

Pockets of heavy rain and associated flash flooding will be the
primary threat, especially in areas that experience multiple days of
heavy rain. Weak shear will generally limit storm organization, but
isolated pulse-type strong/severe storms will be possible.

The anomalous moisture should support periods of enhanced cloudiness
and high PoPs which should temper the heat somewhat. Highs each day
generally ranging from mid/upper 80s north to lower 90s south.

Lows 67 to 72, with areas/patchy dense fog possible in areas that
received heavy rain the day before.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 110 PM Thursday...

24-hour TAF period: Largely VFR conditions are expected to start the
TAF period. We are watching the threat of scattered showers and
storms this afternoon and evening. The chance could exist at any TAF
site, though guidance appears to be suggesting the best chance at
FAY/RWI, perhaps along the sea-breeze and from upstream convection
in GA/SC. Overall, confidence on where storms occur is low, but do
have higher confidence at FAY/RWI for the prior reasons. The current
forecast does not include IFR restrictions, but if satellite/radar
trends warrant, increased restrictions may be needed. The chance of
storms will exist overnight, with the best chance at GSO/INT with an
upstream disturbance in SC and western NC. The latest model data
suggests a low probability of fog at the terminals Fri morning and a
better chance of IFR/MVFR stratus. Overall confidence is low on this
as well, but guidance is more clustered for this at GSO/INT. Another
round of storms will be possible Fri, most favored in the aftn/eve
period.

Outlook: Daily shower and storm chances will exist Fri through early
next week under a typical summertime pattern, along with morning
fog/stratus. The best chance of storms appears favored Fri into the
weekend.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...

...Computer System Upgrade at NWS Raleigh from June 16th
through 18th...

The National Weather Service Raleigh Weather Forecast Office
in Raleigh will be conducting a required, scheduled update
to our Advanced Weather Interactive Processing System (AWIPS)
computer system. NWS offices use AWIPS to display and integrate
weather and water information, and to send life-saving
information, such as weather and water warnings, to the public.

AWIPS is updated periodically, but this update is comprehensive
and requires that the system be taken completely offline for
approximately three days, from the morning of Monday, June 16th
through the afternoon hours of Wednesday, June 18th. During that
time, NWS Raleigh forecasters will produce and disseminate
products for the area using the AWIPS system at one of our backup
offices at NWS Blacksburg, VA. No impacts to our core services of
forecast products and weather watches, warnings and advisories are
expected during this period.

A few of our services will be impacted as they originate only
from AWIPS facilities at NWS Raleigh, namely:

* NOAA Weather Radio broadcast: The following NOAA Weather Radio
  transmitters, programmed by NWS Raleigh, will be off the air
  during most of the AWIPS update:

Buck Mountain (WWF 60 - 162.500 mhz)
Chapel Hill (WXL 58 - 162.550 mhz)
Ellerbe(WNG 597 - 162.400 Mhz)
Garner(WNG 706 - 162.450 mhz)
Henderson (WNG 586 - 162.500 mhz)
Tarboro (WXL 59 - 162.475 mhz)
Winston-Salem (WXL 42 - 162.400 mhz)

* Climate: Data will be updated in a limited fashion from Monday
  afternoon, June 16th through Wednesday, June 18th. Climate
  graphs for the Raleigh Forecast Area at
  https://www.weather.gov/rah/climatePlots will not be updated.

* Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook images normally at
www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=rah will not be updated.

* The Weather Story available at
https://www.weather.gov/rah/weatherstory will not be updated.

* Water level forecast services will be degraded due to a less
frequent update cycle. Forecasts will remain at
https://water.noaa.gov/wfo/rah through this period.

* NWS Raleigh will remain operational and staffed while AWIPS
is offline, taking public and partner phone calls, communicating
via social media, and performing other functions that can be
completed without AWIPS.

We apologize for any inconvenience. Please direct any questions
to Jonathan Blaes at jonathan.blaes@noaa.gov

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Kren/Blaes
NEAR TERM...Kren
SHORT TERM...np/BLS
LONG TERM...CBL
AVIATION...Kren
EQUIPMENT...RAH