Burlington, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

304
FXUS62 KRAH 160612
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
212 AM EDT Sat May 16 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
* Little to no changes.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 200 AM Saturday...

1) A sub-tropical to lower mid-latitude high will favor hot,
seasonably moist/humid, and mainly dry conditions through Wed.

2) A synoptic cold front will likely settle through cntl NC and
focus showers/storms Thu, with following cold air damming probable
for Fri.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 200 AM Saturday...

KEY MESSAGE 1... A sub-tropical to lower mid-latitude high will
favor hot, seasonably moist/humid, and mainly dry conditions through
Wed.

A mid-level, sub-tropical high will progress across the South
Atlantic states, strengthen, and linger near the srn Middle Atlantic
coast through next Mon-Tue, when associated 500-700 mb heights are
likely to exceed the max moving average and possibly daily records
at GSO and MHX. Model guidance are in good agreement that the high
and surrounding ridge will then weaken and lose influence by mid to
late next week, despite continued large model spread in the
progression of shortwaves from the Great Basin to the Great Lakes
during that time.

At the surface, and beneath and downstream of the sub-tropical high
and surrounding ridge aloft, high pressure will extend from near
Bermuda to the South Atlantic coast, while a trough will extend in
the lee of the srn and cntl Appalachians and a sea breeze will
probably move through the entirety of cntl NC each late afternoon-
evening. There may be sufficient convection within the lee trough
and/or from off the Appalachians on Wed to force a composite outflow
boundary into the nw NC Piedmont by Wed eve-night.

Warm and seasonably moist sswly/swly flow around the Bermuda high
and across cntl NC will favor afternoon temperatures mostly in the
lwr 90s and with mixed dewpoints in the mid 50s-lwr 60s, but with
associated heat index values generally at or even slightly below the
ambient air temperature. Forcing for ascent will remain weak while
under the dominating influence of the sub-tropical ridge, with
surface convergence along the lee/Piedmont trough and also possibly
along the sea breeze providing the only apparent forcing mechanisms
for around a 10 percent, diurnally-maximized probability of a pulse
cell along each until probabilities increase into chance range over
the nw Piedmont late Wed-Wed night.


KEY MESSAGE 2... A synoptic cold front will likely settle through
cntl NC and focus showers/storms Thu, with following cold air
damming probable for Fri.

Regardless of the aforementioned differences in the progression of
shortwaves through a trough from the Great Basin to the Great Lakes,
model guidance overwhelmingly suggest the sub-tropical high along
the srn Middle Atlantic coast early next week will weaken and lose
influence and allow for at least weakly falling heights and modest
strengthening of swly flow aloft on its wrn periphery by mid to late
week. Through the same time, a mid/upr-level cyclone invof the
Labrador Sea will force confluent flow across the Great Lakes and
QC. Those developments aloft will favor the maintenance and probable
strengthening of cP high pressure across cntl and ern Canada and
ultimately into the Middle Atlantic by the end of next week. That
high will propel and be led by a synoptic cold front that will
likely settle across cntl NC on Thu and yield following cold air
damming in the lee of the cntl and srn Appalachians Fri-Fri night.
The probability of meaningful rain will be maximized from frontal
convection on Thu, with cooler and cloudy conditions, and a chance
of light stratiform rain in CAD, to end the week.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 105 AM Saturday...

TAF period: VFR conditions are expected over the next 24 hours. Some
passing mid to high level clouds overnight will primarily be along
the VA/NC border, with additional high clouds moving in after
sunrise. With the approach of a weak trough, gusts out of the
southwest should be a little more common than yesterday, but did
bring the values down slightly with the 06Z TAF package from the 00Z
TAF package. The wind will back to the south around sunset,
remaining elevated towards FAY.

Outlook: Some model guidance is hinting at the possibility for some
IFR ceilings late Saturday night into Sunday morning, primarily
around FAY. Otherwise, dry VFR conditions are forecast through
Wednesday, by which time some showers may approach the area from the
west.

&&

.CLIMATE...

Record High Temperatures:

May 17: KGSO: 94/1915 KRDU: 92/1947 KFAY: 97/1941

May 18: KGSO: 95/1911 KRDU: 95/1906 KFAY: 96/1911

May 19: KGSO: 96/1911 KRDU: 95/1962 KFAY: 96/2022

May 20: KGSO: 95/1917 KRDU: 96/2022 KFAY: 99/2022


Record High Minimum Temperatures:

May 18: KGSO: 70/2015 KRDU: 72/1896 KFAY: 71/2018

May 19: KGSO: 68/2018 KRDU: 70/2022

May 20: KGSO: 68/2022 KRDU: 69/2019 KFAY: 71/2022

May 21: KGSO: 67/2022 KRDU: 71/1898 KFAY: 71/2025

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MWS
AVIATION...Green
CLIMATE...