Asheville, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

617
FXUS62 KGSP 151054
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
654 AM EDT Fri Aug 15 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Abundant moisture over the Southeast will keep scattered to numerous
showers and thunderstorms over the area through Friday. As a somewhat
shallow upper ridge lingers over our region through the weekend and
early next week, temperatures remain near normal. Daily showers and
thunderstorms become more isolated to scattered from Sunday into early
next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 645 AM Fri: A weak cold front is present across the Carolinas
but with precip along it having fizzled nocturnally, it is almost
indiscernible from obs. Water vapor imagery depicts axis of
broad shortwave over western KY/TN. Locally dense mountain valley
fog/stratus should dissipate by 9-10 AM. Patchy fog along parts of
the upper Catawba and Yadkin rivers probably will dissolve by 8-9
AM. Little change to the fcst thinking from early morning package.

Surface wave near the NC/SC coast looks to drift out to sea
today and front should continue slow progress southward. The
enhancing effect of these features looks to trend south and east
of the CWA, and PWATs decline slightly in their wake. While those
developments would suggest lower PoPs on their own, there looks to
be less morning cloud cover today, which will help temperatures
trend warmer--a couple degrees above normal--and instability
greater. Furthermore there may be a subtle enhancing effect with
the trough axis moving in from the west. Northeasterly sfc flow is
expected to produce convergence in the Savannah River Valley, also.

Altogether likely PoPs are forecast over the Blue Ridge Escarpment
with chance for most other areas, save for some parts of the I-77
corridor where only slight-chance is mentioned. Steering flow will
be seasonably weak but mainly westerly aloft; the easterly PBL
flow suggests development may be favored along the east-facing
Escarpment, but CAMs depict net storm motion from the west. That
should help limit the ability of storms to anchor or train,
mitigating flash flood threat. Good rainfall rates however will
return and a localized threat of flash flooding can`t be ruled
out near east-facing ridges, particularly where soils remain
saturated. Chances decline nocturnally this evening from NW to
SE. Expect another muggy night with min temps 4-7 above normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 1:45 AM EDT Friday: The short-term fcst picks up at 12z on
Saturday with broad upper ridging centered just west of the MS
River Valley and covering most of the CONUS. We will remain under
the eastern periphery of the ridge thru the period. At the sfc,
weak high pressure will linger to our north and west on Saturday.
At the same time, weak low pressure just off the Carolina Coast
will keep moist low-level flow from the Atlantic over our area.
This setup should produce decent amounts of sfc-based instability
across our CWA during the afternoon/evening with fcst soundings
featuring low LFCs in an uncapped environment. As such, at least
climo coverage of diurnal showers and tstorms is expected over our
area, with sct to numerous coverage over the mtns and more widely
sct activity outside the mtns. Instability will likely be adequate
to support a few strong-to-marginally severe pulse storms. By Sunday,
the ridge axis is expected to move over the southern Appalachians and
vicinity, resulting in increasingly warm and suppressed profiles.
This should result in notably less convective coverage on Sunday,
with below climo PoPs across our CWA. High temps are expected to be
near-climo on Saturday and a few degrees above climo on Sunday under
less cloud cover.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 1:35 AM EDT Friday: The extended fcst picks up at 12z on
Monday with broad upper ridging covering most of the CONUS. Over
the next few days, very broad upper trofing will amplify over
eastern Canada and suppress the ridge over the eastern CONUS.
Towards the end of the period later next week, most of the long-
range guidance has the upper trof lifting NE with relatively
flattened upper flow over our area. At the sfc, high pressure
will be in place well to our north over eastern Canada while
what is currently Tropical Storm Erin will be approaching the
Bahamas. Over the next couple of days, the high will slide SE
and produce brief, weak, NELY low-level flow across our area
as the TS Erin approaches the SE Coast and then turns NE. The
system is expected to continue tracking NE and further off the
Atlantic Coast as the period ends. At the same time, another
round of weak high pressure approaches our area from the NW,
but appears to have difficulty spreading south of the Carolinas.
Overall, still expect below climo PoPs for Monday with a steady
increase in diurnal shower/thunderstorm coverage each day thru
the end of the period. At this time, the severe potential appears
minimal at best thru the period. The warmest temperatures of the
period are expected on Monday, with values likely dropping near
(if not just below) normal on Tuesday and remaining below normal
thru the end of the work week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: Some fog/stratus lingering along the
rivers near KAVL and KHKY at issuance time; can`t rule out a
brief restriction at either site in the first hour of the 12z TAF
period. Mainly N to NE winds during the daytime hours. Diurnal
cu likely to pop out at MVFR level in late morning perhaps with
brief cigs, but will mix to VFR level by early aftn. SHRA/TSRA
will develop in the WNC mountains around midday and propagate
slowly toward the S and SE. PROB30s retained at all sites with
confidence reflected in severity of restrictions therein. Timing
adjusted per latest CAMs. Light winds and mainly convective debris
clouds at 080-150 seen tonight. Pattern remains similar and for now
will include MVFR mention at KAVL and hint at possible conditions
below minima at KHKY Sat AM using SCT001.

Outlook: Afternoon showers and thunderstorms with associated
restrictions are expected across the area through the weekend.
Morning fog and low stratus are also possible, especially across
the mountain valleys.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...Wimberley
SHORT TERM...JPT
LONG TERM...JPT
AVIATION...Wimberley