Asheville, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

790
FXUS62 KGSP 240131
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
931 PM EDT Mon Jun 23 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
The heat and humidity will remain elevated through mid-week as a hot
upper ridge dominates the eastern United States. Isolated showers
and thunderstorms will remain possible each afternoon and evening
through Tuesday, mainly across the mountains. The upper ridge will
begin to break down after Wednesday as an upper disturbance brings
increased shower and thunderstorm chances to the area for the latter
half of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 930 pm Monday: No major changes to the forecast at this
time as skies are generally clear over most of the area. A few
lower clouds are popping up in the far western zones, primarily
where rain fell earlier. Otherwise, muggy and very warm
conditions are expected tonight...with min temps of 5-7 degrees
above climo expected. Areas of fog/low stratus will again
develop...mainly in the lower mtn valleys.

Progged thickness values support a continuation of the
heating trend on Tuesday, and max temps are expected to be
2-3 warmer then today...resulting in widespread upper 90s
east of the mountains...with at least isolated instances of
100 likely. Meanwhile, while forecast soundings depict deep
mixing during the afternoon...there is also an elevated moisture
source near the top of the mixed layer...lowering the potential
for decreasing dewpoints during the hottest part of the day. As
such...generally expect surface dewpoints to remain in the upper
60s in most locations, and this will result in widespread heat
index values of 105-110 across the Piedmont and foothills.  A Heat
Advisory will therefore be issued for these areas. Otherwise,
another round of isolated diurnal convection is expected over
the mountains.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 145 PM EDT Monday:

Upper anticylcone will be firmly in place as we start the short term
with hot and humid conditions across the area. Another day of
afternoon highs a good 10 or so degrees above seasonal normals and
dewpoints supportive of heat indices above 100 across all the
Piedmont, and above 105 in the Charlotte Metro and the Upper
Savannah Valley. For the NW Piedmont and GSP Metro, a little less
confident on dewpoints, given forecast soundings showing deep mixing
to 800mb, but current dewpoint trends are running fairly on track
with NBM and so less confident that there is need to undercut NBM as
much as in previous forecasts. Given the need to issue the near-term
heat advisory, likely need for advisory conditions for a chunk of
the area Wednesday, and collaboration with neighbors, felt it
prudent to go ahead and extend the advisory through Wednesday
afternoon even with the uncertainty that the entire Piedmont will
reach criteria.

All that said, upper weakness over the Western Atlantic shifts west
over the Southeast/FL Peninsula on Wednesday, working to begin
breaking down the upper ridge and bringing additional moisture into
the area. So even with the heat advisory, expect enhanced diurnal
pops, with likelies over the mountains. Surface thermodynamics
aligned with incoming vort max may allow for isolated strong to
severe, with wet microbursts the main threat. SPC Marginal for Day 3
seems reasonable. Enhanced diurnal coverage continues on Thursday as
waves of moisture rotate around the upper weakness and spread across
the southeast, and reduced insolation brings high temperatures down
to the mid 90s (hey, we celebrate the small victories here). Will
see the same trend in reduction of overnight lows but still >70
degrees so not much recovery to speak of, so the cumulative heat
effects will still compound.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 200 PM EDT Monday:

Upper weakness remains over the Southeast as we move into the
extended, drifting north and cutting into the ridge. General
thickness pattern still remains high however so even with some
reduction of temperatures, they still remain above normal...just
only a couple of degrees instead of 7-10 degrees. With increasing
deep-layer moisture associated with the disturbance, convective
chances increase through the extended, especially over the weekend.
With such warm temperatures, enough SBCAPE can be expected that
allow for isolated wet microbursts, as well as heavy rain leading to
isolated flash flooding.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: VFR conditions prevail through the end of the
period as strong high pressure remains parked over the area. Winds
continue to be very light and VRB at all sites given the stagnant
pattern. KCLT could see more of a NE wind after daybreak, but again
remains very light. Cu is starting to dissipate quickly and should
leave SKC for the overnight hours. Given the lack of rainfall over
the past few nights, mountain terminals are seeing less vsby
restrictions from low stratus at daybreak. For this, will keep any
mention out. No vsby/cig restrictions are anticipated during this
TAF period. Expect the usual cu to re-develop over the area Tuesday
afternoon.

Outlook: Showers and thunderstorms return Wednesday and continue
through the end of the workweek. Fog and/or low stratus is possible
each morning in the usual mtn valleys and near lakes and rivers.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORDS FOR 06-23

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAVL      93 2016     64 1936     70 2017     47 1947
                1988
   KCLT     100 2015     63 1936     77 2016     53 1947
   KGSP      99 1988     70 1900     75 2016     54 1972
                1944                                1947



RECORDS FOR 06-24

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAVL      94 1952     66 1991     70 2015     48 1947
                            1919                    1918
   KCLT     102 1930     68 1936     76 1998     55 1972
                                        1914        1936
   KGSP     100 1952     64 1936     76 2016     51 1915



RECORDS FOR 06-25

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAVL      96 1952     63 1889     69 1949     45 1972
                                        1943
                                        1891
   KCLT     102 1914     70 1980     75 1952     53 1889
                            1915        1914
                            1889
   KGSP     101 1952     69 1980     75 1931     52 1972
                                        1925



RECORDS FOR 06-26

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAVL      96 1948     65 1961     69 1952     49 1984
                                                    1974
   KCLT     102 1952     68 1965     78 1948     55 1979
   KGSP     100 1952     71 1991     77 1952     55 1979
                1934                                1974
                1914

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...Heat Advisory from noon Tuesday to 8 PM EDT Wednesday for
     GAZ018-026-028-029.
NC...Heat Advisory from noon Tuesday to 8 PM EDT Wednesday for
     NCZ035>037-056-057-068>072-082-501>510.
SC...Heat Advisory from noon Tuesday to 8 PM EDT Wednesday for
     SCZ008>014-019-101>109.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AR/TDP
NEAR TERM...CP/JDL
SHORT TERM...TDP
LONG TERM...TDP
AVIATION...CP
CLIMATE...