Apex, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

531
FXUS62 KRAH 130150
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
950 PM EDT Thu Jun 12 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Bermuda high pressure will build west into the region through early
next week, bringing warm and humid conditions.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 950 PM Thursday...

Aloft, as of the 00Z upper air analyses, high pressure was centered
off the Southeast US coast, with a low/trough over the Plains. The
H7 and H85 were saturated, with weak flow throughout the column. A
mid-level disturbance, likely helping sustain the convection along
the Yadkin, should continue enewd across the area overnight. Latest
hi-res guidance suggests the convection should gradually fall apart
over the next several hours, but how far east it will make it before
fully abating is still somewhat unclear. Given the slow but heavy
nature of the convection, localized hydro concerns may persist until
it wanes, especially in urban areas. No changes made to the forecast
lows for tonight, still expecting upper 60s to low 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 153 PM Thursday...

* Unsettled continues with increasing coverage showers and storms

An upper ridge will set up over Florida and the Southeast coast by
Friday, while a weak cutoff low drifts over the Arklatex region,
putting most of the Deep South and Southeast in warm and moisture
return flow around a Bermuda high. Overall forcing for accent will
be weak and CAPE may be hindered by multilayer cloud cover, but weak
capping and the influx of moisture will support scattered to
numerous showers and storms, either from ongoing from Thursday night
or initiating fairly early on Friday. Confidence in favored areas of
central NC for the best coverage of storms is low, but there is some
signal that the southern Piedmont/Sandhills may be favored. While
model guidance does not indicate significantly high QPF overall,  PW
is forecast to increase from around 1 inch today to as much as 2.25
inches on Friday, which combined with nearly unidirectional weak
flows and weak MBE velocities may support isolated flooding
concerns.  High temps once again ranging from 83 to 88.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
As of 300 PM Thursday...

* Chances of mainly afternoon and evening showers and storms
  increase through early next week. Isolated flooding may become a
  concern after multiple days of rainfall.


A compact upper low currently positioned over the ARKLATEX region
will gradually open into a wave as it shifts eastward, reaching the
area this weekend into early next week. This will set up a deep SWLY
flow between the weakening trough and a meandering subtropical
ridging meandering off the Florida coast. This pattern will funnel
anomalously moist air into the region, with PWATs of 2-2.25",
placing values in the 95-98th percentile for June.

Although forcing will remain weak---mainly in the form of DPVA and
passing weak impulses or possible MCVs, mesoscale features such as
weak sfc convergence along a weak sfc boundary and inland
penetrating sea-breezes will aid in generating scattered to numerous
diurnally driven showers and storms each afternoon and evening from
Saturday through Monday.

Beyond Monday, guidance diverges slightly on the evolution of the
subtropical ridge.  Some models suggest ridging may re-establish ,
potentially lowering PoPs by midweek. However, additional weak mid-
level shortwave troughs approaching from the west could still
maintain daily convective rain chances through Wednesday.

Pockets of heavy rain and associated flash flooding will be the
primary threat, especially in areas that experience multiple days of
heavy rain. Weak shear will generally limit storm organization, but
isolated pulse-type strong/severe storms will be possible.

The anomalous moisture should support periods of enhanced cloudiness
and high PoPs which should temper the heat somewhat. Highs each day
generally ranging from mid/upper 80s north to lower 90s south.

Lows 67 to 72, with areas/patchy dense fog possible in areas that
received heavy rain the day before.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 745 PM Thursday...

Convection will continue for another few hours over the forecast
area as storms over western NC move towards the Triad terminals and
an outflow boundary approaches RDU and RWI from their south. Overall
coverage around the terminals will be isolated to scattered with low
confidence in direct terminal impacts. Guidance is trending more
towards early morning MVFR to perhaps IFR stratus as opposed to fog
and have trended the 00z TAFs in this direction. Another round of
diurnal showers/storms are expected Fri afternoon with all terminals
having equal chances to see brief sub-VFR restrictions.

Outlook: Daily shower and storm chances will exist Fri through early
next week under a typical summertime pattern, along with morning
fog/stratus. The best chance of storms appears favored Fri into the
weekend.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...

...Computer System Upgrade at NWS Raleigh from June 16th
through 18th...

The National Weather Service Raleigh Weather Forecast Office
in Raleigh will be conducting a required, scheduled update
to our Advanced Weather Interactive Processing System (AWIPS)
computer system. NWS offices use AWIPS to display and integrate
weather and water information, and to send life-saving
information, such as weather and water warnings, to the public.

AWIPS is updated periodically, but this update is comprehensive
and requires that the system be taken completely offline for
approximately three days, from the morning of Monday, June 16th
through the afternoon hours of Wednesday, June 18th. During that
time, NWS Raleigh forecasters will produce and disseminate
products for the area using the AWIPS system at one of our backup
offices at NWS Blacksburg, VA. No impacts to our core services of
forecast products and weather watches, warnings and advisories are
expected during this period.

A few of our services will be impacted as they originate only
from AWIPS facilities at NWS Raleigh, namely:

* NOAA Weather Radio broadcast: The following NOAA Weather Radio
  transmitters, programmed by NWS Raleigh, will be off the air
  during most of the AWIPS update:

Buck Mountain (WWF 60 - 162.500 mhz)
Chapel Hill (WXL 58 - 162.550 mhz)
Ellerbe(WNG 597 - 162.400 Mhz)
Garner(WNG 706 - 162.450 mhz)
Henderson (WNG 586 - 162.500 mhz)
Tarboro (WXL 59 - 162.475 mhz)
Winston-Salem (WXL 42 - 162.400 mhz)

* Climate: Data will be updated in a limited fashion from Monday
  afternoon, June 16th through Wednesday, June 18th. Climate
  graphs for the Raleigh Forecast Area at
  https://www.weather.gov/rah/climatePlots will not be updated.

* Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook images normally at
www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=rah will not be updated.

* The Weather Story available at
https://www.weather.gov/rah/weatherstory will not be updated.

* Water level forecast services will be degraded due to a less
frequent update cycle. Forecasts will remain at
https://water.noaa.gov/wfo/rah through this period.

* NWS Raleigh will remain operational and staffed while AWIPS
is offline, taking public and partner phone calls, communicating
via social media, and performing other functions that can be
completed without AWIPS.

We apologize for any inconvenience. Please direct any questions
to Jonathan Blaes at jonathan.blaes@noaa.gov

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Kren/Blaes
NEAR TERM...KC
SHORT TERM...np/BLS
LONG TERM...CBL
AVIATION...Swiggett/Kren
EQUIPMENT...RAH