Apex, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

570
FXUS62 KRAH 021909
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
305 PM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front will lift northward across North Carolina this
afternoon, then stall and hold over northwest North Carolina tonight
through Thursday morning. The front will resume its northward motion
late Thursday, lifting well north of the area and leading to a
strong warm air flow into the region through Sunday. A cold front
will approach from the west Sunday evening, then slowly move through
the region through Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 305 PM Wednesday...

With high pressure centered off the New England coast, moist
easterly flow allowed for widespread cloud cover this morning except
easternmost counties. However, the stratus has broken up, now
transitioning to more of diurnal cumulus with stratus remaining
across western North Carolina and Virginia. High temperature bust
potential was always possible in the Triad depending on whether the
in-situ CAD persisted or not, and temperatures have risen above the
low 60s forecast for Forsyth County. Something that several
consecutive runs of the HRRR have shown is an area of convection
developing across western counties (Davidson, Stanly, Anson) late
this afternoon and continuing into the evening. Although more recent
runs of the HRRR have trended this convection slightly later,
primarily after sunset, have switched the character of any
precipitation this afternoon/evening to convective showers instead
of the previously mentioned drizzle/light rain. After midnight,
think that any precipitation would be stratiform in nature, with
widespread cloud cover expected to redevelop overnight. The cloud
cover will result in a very mild night - lows will be mostly in the
60s, with some lower 70s possible around Fayetteville.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 205 PM Wednesday...

* Thursday will begin a stretch of anomalously warm conditions with
  little overnight relief.

Widespread low overcast, and perhaps some light drizzle, Thur
morning will gradually lift/scatter from southeast to northwest
through the morning into the early afternoon.

Continued strengthening/expanding of the anomalous sub-tropical
ridge over the southwest N. Atlantic, scattering cloud cover, and
12z low-level thicknesses 40m above normal for early April, will
result in the first of several days of abnormal heat for central NC
as temperatures rise into the upper 70s to mid/upper 80s. Warmest
temps will likely be across the Sandhills into the eastern Piedmont
and Coastal Plain where erosion low overcast occurs first.

In the wake of the low overcast, diurnal heating of the already
warm/moist airmass in place will result in moderate instability
(1000-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE) mainly over the Piedmont. Proximity to
the strong sub-tropical ridge may prevent much or even any deep
convection, but isolated showers will be possible during the
afternoon into the early evening hours. Among the latest 12z Hi-Res
guidance, only the HRRR develops any deeper convection, likely since
it has surface dew points closer to 70 degrees while mean 12z HREF
dew points are closer to mid 60s during the afternoon. Light
stirring southwesterly flow and potential redevelopment of some low
overcast will result in another unseasonably warm night as
temperatures only dip into the mid 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 400 AM Wednesday...

The weather pattern on Friday and Saturday will continue to be
controlled in large part by a subtropical high aloft that remains
anchored east of FL, while a surface high initially centered near
Bermuda slowly drifts SW. This high will act to stall out a cold
front which will remain extended from the OH Valley to the mid MS
Valley and TX. SW flow aloft will bring PW values to 100-200% of
normal Friday and Saturday, while S/SW low-level flow will bring
plenty of warm, moist air with surface dew points in the 60s and a
chance for low stratus each morning. Meanwhile a shortwave and
associated surface low over the Canadian Maritimes will try to push
a backdoor front south into VA on Friday. So can`t rule out some
isolated showers or storms across the northern Piedmont and northern
Coastal Plain on Friday afternoon and evening, particularly near the
VA border, as SBCAPE in model guidance is in the 500-1500 J/kg
range. However, current guidance keeps the front to our north, and
the high to our SE should help limit convective development.
Furthermore, GFS/ECM/CMC ensemble mean QPF are only a few hundredths
to a tenth of an inch at most. So only carry slight to low chance
POPs. Saturday looks dry as the backdoor front lifts well to our
north, while initially partly to mostly sunny skies during the day
turn mostly cloudy on Saturday night. One benefit of the higher dew
points is they should keep RH`s above levels that would aggravate
fire weather concerns.

Much better rain chances arrive late Sunday and especially Sunday
night as the Bermuda high finally starts to break down and shift
away from us, in response to the southern stream wave pushing east
and a broad northern stream trough diving down into the Upper Great
Lakes. This will help push the cold front east through our region,
as a wave of low pressure tracks along it. While the GFS is a bit
faster than the ECMWF, both models are in decent agreement on FROPA
timing occurring sometime Sunday night/Monday morning. Some storms
can`t be ruled out, but at this time the timing doesn`t look ideal
for severe weather with the frontal passage occurring overnight or
early morning. Even outside of storms, GFS point soundings on BUFKIT
indicate gusts of 25-35 mph will be possible during the day on
Sunday. Precipitation may linger into Monday especially in the south
and east if the frontal passage is slow enough, so continue some
chance POPs in the afternoon and evening. GFS/ECM ensemble mean QPF
is around an inch which would be welcome soaking rain considering
how dry we have been lately with much of central NC in D0 or D1
conditions. We finally dry out on Tuesday as much drier air filters
in from Canadian high pressure to our NW.

Temperatures will be quite warm during the period, as highs are
mainly in the upper-80s to lower-90s on Friday and Saturday, which
is 15-20 degrees above normal. Lows will mainly be in the 60s. The
forecast on Friday and Saturday is close to record highs for April 4
and 5 at GSO, RDU and FAY. It will not be a "dry heat" either as dew
points will largely be in the 60s. Sunday looks a bit cooler from
cloud cover and precipitation chances, but still very warm with
highs in the mid-80s to 90, which could still approach some records.
Temperatures will then cool down significantly on Monday to near
normal (highs in the upper-60s to lower-70s, lows in the 40s). A
reinforcing cold front on Monday night will bring even cooler
temperatures on Tuesday with highs only in the lower-to-mid-60s and
lows Tuesday night dropping into the 30s, which may result in
frost/freeze concerns.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 140 PM Wednesday...

TAF period: Ceiling heights have risen through the morning, and
while INT/GSO should remain MVFR through the afternoon, RDU/RWI/FAY
should all have a time this afternoon where ceilings are VFR.
However, ceilings will lower this evening and all terminals will be
IFR by midnight, with INT/GSO (and possibly RDU) experiencing
several hours of LIFR ceilings. While some improvement should be
observed Thursday morning, INT/GSO should remain IFR through 18Z
Thursday.

As for precipitation chances, it still appears that with the breaks
in clouds south of the Triad this afternoon, some convection will be
possible later at INT/GSO. Showers are mentioned in the TAF, but
there is still not enough confidence to explicitly mention thunder.
Overnight, drizzle or light rain is a good possibility at INT/GSO,
although confidence was not high enough to extend the precipitation
all the way over to RDU.

Finally, low level wind shear appears to be marginal at INT, but did
not have enough confidence to remove it from the inherited forecast.

Outlook: IFR ceilings are likely again Thursday night and Friday
night, despite the meager precipitation chances, due to moist/humid
low-level flow. A strong cold front will bring showers and possibly
a thunderstorm along with flight restrictions as early as Sunday
afternoon at INT/GSO and continuing at all sites Sunday night and
Monday.

&&

.CLIMATE...

Record High Temperatures:

April 3:
KRDU: 91/1967
KFAY: 90/1934

April 4:
KGSO: 86/1934
KRDU: 88/1934
KFAY: 93/1910

April 5:
KGSO: 87/1942
KRDU: 90/1942
KFAY: 91/1942

April 6:
KGSO: 89/2010
KRDU: 93/1967
KFAY: 91/2010


Record High Minimum Temperatures:

April 3:
KGSO: 64/1946
KRDU: 62/2000
KFAY: 65/1977

April 4:
KGSO: 62/1999
KRDU: 63/2017
KFAY: 63/2017

April 5:
KGSO: 60/2023
KRDU: 64/1910
KFAY: 64/2008

April 6:
KGSO: 65/2023
KRDU: 69/2023
KFAY: 69/2023

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Hartfield
NEAR TERM...Green
SHORT TERM...Swiggett
LONG TERM...Danco
AVIATION...Green
CLIMATE...RAH