Union, New York 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

400
FXUS61 KBGM 241825
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
225 PM EDT Fri Jul 24 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes were made to this forecast package.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) High pressure continues to bring gorgeous weather and
seasonable temperatures into Sunday.

2) Active weather returns to portions of the area starting
Sunday afternoon. Showers and storms remain in the forecast
through mid-week as an upper level trough sits over the region.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...

A strong surface high pressure system centered over CNY will
continue to bring pleasant weather with seasonable temperatures
thru Sunday. Highs in the upper 70s to low 80s today. Clear
skies and light winds tonight will allow for temps to fall into
the low to mid 50s. A few of our colder spots could see upper
40s for lows. Some warmer air is expected to round the top of
the ridge centered over the central US and move into the area
on Saturday and Sunday. Highs are forecast to climb into the low
to mid 80s. With dewpoints in the 50s, it will still feel
somewhat comfortable outside.


KEY MESSAGE 2...

On Sunday, the strong ridge over the central portion of the
country should have a weakening in the NW quadrant, allowing a
shortwave trough to dig into the Great Lakes region. This would
allow for some light rain showers and isolated thunderstorms
west of I-81 in the afternoon. The ridge that is currently over
us will slide to the NE and should continue to have enough
influence to squash a lot of precipitation development,
especially east of I-81. We are seeing signals for more showers
and storms starting Monday night into Wednesday as a stronger
shortwave moves into the region from the north central US. This
trough will strengthen and develop a surface low somewhere
between the eastern Ohio River Valley and southern Ontario Mon
Night/Tues AM. This surface low will deepen as it tracks east.
Scattered showers with some isolated thunder will be possible,
thru Wednesday. A low track to the south should keep severe
weather chances to our west and south, while a low that develops
over southern Ontario and moves into NY could allow for some
better severe storm dynamics to develop over portions of the
CWA. The current guidance is too varied to have strong
confidence in either solution so we will continue to monitor how
the pattern develops.

The trough axis should be east of us by Thursday, bringing NNW
flow and pushing high pressure back into the area. Temps will be
seasonable to slightly cooler than normal with dry conditions
heading into the weekend.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Strong high pressure will bring VFR conditions across much of
the region through the TAF period. We may see some patchy fog at
ELM lat tonight, but with current dewpoints in the mid 40s and
forecasted lows in the low 50s, confidence is not high enough to
include IFR restrictions from fog in the TAF at this time.

Outlook:

Saturday...Mainly VFR.

Sunday...Mainly VFR, although an isolated shower or thunderstorm
may result in brief restrictions.

Monday through Wednesday...Afternoon showers and/or
thunderstorms may result in occasional restrictions.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JTC
AVIATION...JTC