Troy, New York 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

350
FXUS61 KALY 190805
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
405 AM EDT Thu Jun 19 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
An active weather day is expected across eastern New York and
western New England today. Dangerous heat and humidity returns ahead
of a strong cold front, which will result in strong to severe late
afternoon and evening thunderstorms with damaging winds the
main hazard. After a brief reprieve Friday, another round of
showers and storms is possible Saturday before dangerous heat
and humidity returns early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Key Messages:

- Enhanced risk (Level 3 of 5) of severe thunderstorms across
  portions of the Mid Hudson Valley, slight risk (Level 2 of 5)
  elsewhere.

- Damaging winds will be the primary threat with severe
  thunderstorms that develop.

_ Heat Advisory remains in effect for portions of the Hudson
  Valley where heat indices will climb around to above 95 degrees
  this afternoon.

Discussion:

Early morning surface analysis depicted a surface low across
southern Michigan, with a warm front draped to the northeast across
southern Ontario into Quebec. A cold front was to the southwest of
the surface low across northern Indiana into the western Ohio River
Valley. Ahead of this system, showers and storms were ongoing from
western New York into eastern Ohio.

As we head through the morning, this surface low and its
accompanying fronts will progress northeast, with the surface low
tracking across the warm front into Ontario and Quebec by early
afternoon. Ahead of the front, eastern NY and western New England
will be firmed entrenched in the warm sector with southwesterly flow
advecting in very warm low-level temps around 15-18 C. Fcst
soundings depict low-level mixing of this air down to the surface,
which will translate to PM highs climbing into the 80s to low 90s
outside of the higher terrain of the ADKs, Catskills and southern
Greens. Dewpoints will also remain high with additional moisture
advection (PWATs of around 1.50-1.80") across the region, with
several locations seeing values in the low 70s by mid morning. The
combination of this heat and humidity will lead to a brief period of
heat indices climbing around to just above 95 F mainly in the Hudson
Valley, where a Heat Advisory remains in effect from midday through
this evening.

In addition to the heat, increased forcing from the approaching
surface low, shortwave/jet streak aloft and the surface cold
front/pre-frontal trough will interact with the unstable environment
and lead to the development of afternoon and evening showers and
storms. Severe storms remain possible with the ample forcing and
vertical shear aloft for storm organization, especially across the
Mid Hudson Valley which will be nearer to better forcing with the
jet streak aloft. Here, the Storm Prediction Center has increased
the severe threat to Level 3 (enhanced), with a Level 2 (slight)
across the remainder of eastern NY and western New England.
Regardless of location, the primary hazard with severe storms that
develop will be damaging winds (strong low-level lapse rates
favoring high DCAPEs and momentum transfer), with a lower secondary
risk of large hail and tornadoes. As far as timing, while most CAMs
are in disagreement of exact timing of the storms with the
prefrontal trough and the actual front, the window is around 100PM -
800PM for storm development and track across the region.

Storms should exit the region this evening as the cold front sweeps
through the region. Additional rain showers will be possible nearer
to the surface low track in the ADKs overnight, but most will be
trending drier and cooler with lows dropping into the upper 50s to
lower 60s outside of higher terrain.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Key Messages:

- Low chance of rain showers Friday and Friday night.

- Near normal temperatures Friday warming back above normal Saturday.

- Showers and storms possible Saturday night with a low risk of
  severe thunderstorms.

Discussion:

Much of eastern NY and western New England will enjoy a dry day
Friday with temperatures near normal with weak high pressure passing
overhead. There is low chance of rain showers mainly in the higher
terrain of the ADKs as a weak shortwave passes across the region in
northwest flow aloft. Highs outside of higher terrain Friday will
climb into the upper 70s to low 80s, with overnight lows in the 50s
to low 60s.

Ridging will strengthen rather quickly across the area Saturday with
a warm front lifting across the region, with low-level temperatures
climbing to around 15 C Saturday afternoon. With a mix of sun and
clouds expected for most, PM highs should easily climb into the low
to mid 80s outside of higher terrain.

Saturday evening and overnight, will need to keep an eye on
potential for showers and storms as guidance is hinting at a
decaying ridge runner MCS moving into Quebec/New York from the
northern Great Lakes. There is a low threat of severe weather
with this MCS, as the Storm Prediction Center has locations
along and west of I-87 in a Level 1 (marginal risk). With
disagreement on the timing and strength of the complex, opted
for NBM POPs which keep low to medium chances (40-60%) of
showers and storms for the region, with higher values favored
more in the ADKs. Please continue to monitor the forecast as
details become more clear. Lows will be much warmer in
comparison to Friday night with values in the 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Key Messages:

- High confidence exists in a prolonged period of dangerously
  hot and humid conditions beginning early through the middle
  of next week with the most dangerous of these conditions
  falling to Monday and Tuesday.

- Large valley areas show a 60 to nearly 100% probability for greater
  than 90 degree temperatures Monday and Tuesday with nearly
  regionwide probabilities of 90 to 100% for at least 85 degrees
  on these same days.

- Average heat indices Monday and Tuesday look to widely range from
  90 to low 100s.

Discussion:

Lingering light, scattered showers persist on the heels of an upper-
level shortwave and associated surface low Sunday morning, primarily
in our higher terrain regions, before the combination of the
departure of the system and the onset of large-scale subsidence
in the face of a high-amplitude ridge nosing northward ensures
the reinforcement of dry conditions. This ridge will then
become the feature of primary concern throughout the remainder
of the extended forecast period...

A broad surface anticyclone will begin to build over the Southeast
before the start of the long term forecast period, gradually
amplifying and expanding north and westward beginning Sunday. Strong
upper-level ridging aloft will attend the surface high, spreading
across the Northeast by as early as late Sunday night. Resulting
rises in geopotential height, large-scale subsidence, and subsequent
warming aloft will send temperatures on a fairly accelerated warming
trend through the middle of the week. Sunday will therefore be the
inception of this trend with highs rising into the 80s to low 90s
with the exception of isolated pockets of upper 70s at higher
elevations. Monday will then see values achieve the mid/upper 80s to
upper 90s as the ridge begins to crest across the region. Tuesday`s
highs will be fairly similar with little deamplification expected in
the ridge aloft and the surface high off to the south. To make
matters more uncomfortable to the point of posing dangerous health
impacts, dewpoints both on Monday and Tuesday will be in the upper
60s to low 70s. This will make for heat indices in the 90s and low
100s which could cause significant impacts to health if proper
precautions are not taken to mitigate heat-related illness. And,
unfortunately, with lows in the mid 60s to low 70s Sunday night
through Tuesday night pairing with similar dewpoint values, there
won`t be much of a reprieve from the oppressive heat. Heat
Advisories will likely be needed in the near future, but for now,
plan to drink plenty of water; limit time outdoors; make plans to
remind yourself of children or pets in the back seats of your
vehicles; and refresh your knowledge of heat-related illness
symptoms. As this will be the first real period of oppressive heat
of the season, it will be that much easier to fall victim to such
illnesses given the lack of acclamation to this type of environment.

Temperatures Wednesday will still certainly retain the above-normal
categorization, though the deamplification of the upper ridge and
the shift south and east of the surface high at the hands of an
upper-level disturbance will ensure values begin to trend downward.
Expect primarily 80s to low 90s with pockets of upper 70s at higher
elevations. Additionally, as a result of the aforementioned
disturbance, showers and thunderstorms will be possible across much
of the region Wednesday which will also help to cool temperatures
down moving forward. Lows Wednesday will fall to the low 60s to near
70.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Through 06z Friday...Despite a quiet scene depicted on latest
scans of the KENX radar, conditions across the terminals are
less than ideal due to low stratus clouds and patchy fog.
Therefore, IFR to MVFR ceiling thresholds are currently being
met almost everywhere with the exception being KPOU where LIFR
conditions currently hold due to fog.

Ceiling heights are anticipated to improve upon sunrise later
this morning, yielding the return to VFR conditions across all
TAF sites. Winds will become breezy out of the south today ahead
of an incoming frontal system and upper level disturbance
courtesy of deep mixing with sustained speeds of 10 to 12 kt
likely with gusts up to 20 to 25 kt. This afternoon, scattered
thunderstorms, some of which possibly becoming severe in nature,
will develop across the region. With differences in the model
guidance pertaining to the coverage and timing of convection,
there is still some uncertainty in this element of the forecast.
However, included TEMPOs and PROB30 groups to indicate the most
likely time of thunderstorms. Generally, the primary time period
looks to span 18z to 21z with the possibility of a secondary
round from 21 to 23z, but this is more likely at KGFL. Outside
of the threat for lightning, these thunderstorms will bring the
possibility for strong to locally damaging wind gusts.
Conditions during thunderstorms will likely vary between MVFR
and IFR.

Upon the conclusion of convection late this afternoon/early this
evening, conditions will improve back towards VFR thresholds.
Winds will shift in response to the passage of a cold front,
becoming southwesterly by this afternoon but maintaining a
similar magnitude of sustained and gust speeds that were seen
during the day today given the tighter pressure gradient
sprawled across the area as a result of the frontal system
passage.

Outlook...

Thursday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Friday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Saturday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Sunday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening
     for NYZ052-053-059-060-064-065.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Speck/Speciale
NEAR TERM...Speck
SHORT TERM...Speck
LONG TERM...Gant
AVIATION...Gant