Syracuse, New York 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

427
FXUS61 KBGM 121737
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
1218 PM EDT Thu Jun 12 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
There is a small chance for an isolated thunderstorm in
Northeastern Pennsylvania this afternoon and evening, but dry
conditions elsewhere. The pattern will become more active
Friday and this weekend, with multiple rounds of showers and
chances for thundertorms.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

Very little change in the forecast for this afternoon. Still a
very small chance for an isolated thunderstorm for our far
southern CWA (Luzerne County). Otherwise, high pressure will
hold on until at least late Friday afternoon. Shortwave
approaches from the west Friday evening with shower and
thunderstorm chances increasing Friday evening. Showers and
storms will likely persist into the early morning hours on
Saturday.

130 AM Update...

Ridging holds out for Thursday through Friday early afternoon,
leading to mainly dry conditions. A very weak frontal boundary
moving north to south across Central NY will attempt to initiate
showers and a few storms later this afternoon and evening.
Though, chances are decreasing since there is a very negligible
amount of CAPE, and only one high-resolution model depicts this
solution. We decided to leave in slight chances for showers and
storms for mainly NE PA since there is one model that depicts
this solution, but it`s only for the southern parts of NE PA;
Luzerne-Lackawanna-Wyoming counties. With that weak frontal
boundary moving southward through the day, high temperatures
will be divided by a line along the NY-PA state border, with
highs in the mid to upper 70s for Central NY, and upper 70s to
mid 80s in NE PA.

This weak front will continue a southward descent overnight
Thursday, leading to cooler temperatures on Friday of low to mid
70s in Central NY, and in the mid 70s to low 80s in NE PA.
Ridging finally gives out heading into Friday afternoon-evening
as a shortwave approaches, bringing chances for rain showers and
storms. After Friday, the pattern becomes more active, and is
discussed in the short and long term discussions below.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

No major changes to the forecast as a stationary front will
remain just to our south. Because of the front is dipping
further south, the trend of lowering PoPs continues. NE PA will
have the best chance for showers and thunderstorms with
decreasing PoPs into Central NY.

330 AM Update

This period will feature an unsettled weather pattern with
several rounds of showers and thunderstorms possible over the
weekend.

Model guidance continues to show an area of showers and
thunderstorms riding northeast into and across our forecast area
Friday night along a stationary front. Otherwise, Friday night
will be mainly cloudy and seasonable with lows in the mid 50s
to low 60s for most locations.

Rainfall chances are trending down on Saturday now with the
latest 00z guidance. The nearly stationary front will be
situated near the NY/PA border through the day, with instability
building south of this boundary. There will still be chances for
scattered showers and isolate thunderstorms Saturday afternoon...
with the highest PoPs (50-60%) now confined to the immediate
southern tier of NY and NE PA. It will be partly sunny to mostly
cloudy and a little humid with highs in the upper 60s to
mid-70s. PWATs are still progged to be around 1.50 inches across
the Wyoming Valley region; therefore WPC continues the marginal
risk for excessive rainfall over NE PA. A bit of a backdoor
front sweeps in from the northeast Saturday night, pushing any
MLCAPE out of our area. There will however still be chances for
scattered showers overnight and right through the day on Sunday
as the upper level shortwave trough moves into the eastern Ohio
Valley. There is the potential for a marine layer over the
east/southeast third of the CWA; this will keeps temperatures a
little cooler here. Overall, expect overnight lows in the
mid-50s to low 60s once again, and highs in the 70s. The upper
level wave starts to get sheared out and remains south of the
area Sunday night. This will lead to mainly cloudy skies and a
chance for a few showers around with lows around 60 in the forecast.
Overall, the weekend is not looking like a washout...but it will
be rather cloudy with on and off showers or t`storms each day.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

Forecast remains on-track and no major changes noted in the 12Z
model guidance.

345 AM Update

Zonal westerly flow will be persistent Monday and Tuesday, but
with plenty of moisture and instability around any minor
disturbances or shortwave can initiate scattered showers and
t`storms. Overall, carrying 30-50% PoPs for the afternoon and
evenings on these two days. Outside of any showers or storms it
will be partly sunny and seasonable with highs in the 70s on
Monday, and mid-70s to lower 80s Tuesday. Warm and muggy
overnight with lows in the 60s both Monday night and Tuesday
night. By Wednesday, a better organized higher amplitude trough
approaches from the west. A warm southerly flow out ahead of it
will act to increase temperatures and instability. Highs reach
the low to mid-80s in the afternoon along with likely showers
and thunderstorms. Timing uncertainty increases by next
Thursday, but some of the deterministic guidance brings the
upper level trough directly overhead during the day. This would
keep a good chance for showers and/or t`storms in the forecast.
Temperatures remain warm, very similar to Wednesday`s numbers
and dew points could approach 70 by mid to late week...making it
feel very humid out there.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
18z update... Fairly high confidence that VFR/unrestricted
conditions will stay in tact through the end of the valid TAF period.

A surface cold front will slowly push southward through PA tonight
into Friday, with a fairly dry environment in place in the lower
levels.

Locally gusty NW surface winds this afternoon, will quickly diminish
this evening, then remain light and variable on Friday.

Outlook...

Saturday through Monday...Restrictions possible in showers and
isolated thunderstorms.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT tonight for NYZ062.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...KL/MPK
NEAR TERM...KL/MPK/MJM
SHORT TERM...MPK/MJM
LONG TERM...MPK/MJM
AVIATION...CTP GUEST