Syracuse, New York 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

955
FXUS61 KBGM 230020
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
720 PM EST Sun Feb 22 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Winter Storm Warnings became Blizzard Warnings for Sullivan, Pike,
and Southern Wayne Counties. Winter Storm Warnings became Winter
Weather Advisories for Susquehanna and Otsego Counties. Steuben
County was added to the Winter Weather Advisory. The Winter Weather
Advisory was canceled for Madison County. Forecasted snowfall totals
were significantly reduced, especially for the higher end snowfall
amounts.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) A Nor`easter will continue to impact the region today and
overnight with snow lingering Monday. Lake effect snow develops
behind departing system.

2) A clipper system moves through the Northeast midweek with the
next round of snow.

3) The active pattern likely continues through the end of the week
with cold air returning next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...

Snow showers continue as a low over the Great Lakes begins to weaken
and the low that will become a Nor`easter begins to drift off the
coast of NC/VA. The coastal system will absorb the weaker low later
today and there will likely be a brief lull in snow shower activity
for most of the region late this afternoon and into the evening. As
the dominant low strengthens and moves up along the coast, snow will
spread from south to north. Winds will increase overnight thanks to
a tight pressure gradient around the low. With peak gusts of 40 to
45 mph, localized blizzard conditions may be observed late tonight
and into Monday. Even if snow ends earlier than expected, freshly
fallen snow will easily be lofted. There is potential for some
banding late in the event over the Catskills and Poconos as forcing
becomes slightly more enhanced with peak snowfall rates between 1 to
2 inches per hour.

Snow will gradually come to an end during the daytime hours Monday
as the low drifts up the New England coast. A weak wave behind this
system will drop into western NY with additional snowfall for
portions of central NY. Then flow becomes west to northwesterly
Monday night as lake effect snow develops and is enhanced by this
passing wave. Additional accumulations form late tomorrow through
Tuesday will range from 1 to 2 inches.

This forecast followed the trends of the 06z and 12z guidance which
came in with a much lower QPF footprint over the region. Models have
the low a bit more east than previous updates, hence the lower QPF
seen in most guidance. A blend of the NBM and HREF was used for QPF,
which significantly decreased the northern extent of heavy snow. In
addition, snow-to-liquid ratios (SLRs) were decreased for tonight
and Monday based on WPC guidance. With strong winds, dendrites break
up and lead to slightly lower SLRs than what is often modeled.
Snowfall total within the warnings ranges from 3 to 15 inches with
the highest amounts in far southern portions of Wayne and Pike
Counties in PA. These higher end amounts may still be a little to
high, but if the FGEN banding does set up late in this event, some
heavy snowfall would then occur. The gradient from south to north is
quite sharp as totals taper off to 1 to 3 inches in the Twin Tiers.

With lower snowfall amounts expected. Susquehanna and Otsego
Counties had their warnings changed to advisories as confidence is
high that most of those areas will remain below warning criteria.
There is some guidance coming in wetter so that kept confidence
lower to make any additional changes to the current warnings. The
advisory was dropped from Madison as heavy snowfall should not
extend that far north. Then with the wave dropping in behind the
departing system, Steuben County was given an advisory as localized
amounts of 4 to 5 inches are expected. After much internal
discussion, it was decided to issue Blizzard Warnings for Sullivan,
Pike, and Southern Wayne Counties as localized blizzard conditions
of 1/4 mile visibility due to blowing snow and gusts over 35 mph are
expected.


KEY MESSAGE 2...

A clipper system will slide across the Great Lakes and move into the
Northeast early Wednesday morning. With cold air in place, this will
be the next round of snow across the region. Initially, there will
be decent moisture with this system and some forcing but drier air
will work its way in from the west later in the day. As a result,
snowfall amounts are expected to be fairly light though some
advisories may be needed for northern portions of our region in
future updates. The pressure gradient will be tight on the leading
edge of this system leading to gusty winds and blowing snow. Areas
of reduced visibilities and drifting in open areas will be possible.
Depending on how far north this system tracks, there could be some
warmer air creeping in from the south. As of now, valley locations
will have highs near 40 and with milder conditions, snow would
transition to a rain/snow mix or even just rain.


KEY MESSAGE 3...

The pattern will remain active through the rest of the region. A low
pressure system will move through the region late Thursday into
early Friday though it`s track remains uncertain. The ECWMF and CMC
have weaker systems that pass south of the region, though
precipitation would still be expected. With this solution, colder
air over the region would favor mainly snow. The GFS has a more
developed low and lifts a warm front through before a cold front
quickly follows. This solution would favor rain for some before
becoming all snow. With these differing solutions, blended guidance
was favored. High pressure then builds over the region in time for
the weekend. Guidance is hinting at a cold front on Sunday that
would bring additional snow showers and a shot of colder air.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

The edge of a significant Nor`easter will influence our weather
at all terminals, to varying degrees overnight and into Monday.
Whether it is just increasing and backing winds or causing
periods of snow and blowing snow. SYR only sees a brief period
of light snow or snow showers overnight (03-06z) and then
perhaps a few snow showers 14-19z Monday as well; just
occasional MVFR vsbys are forecast. RME remains dry the entire
taf period, and should remain VFR through most of the TAF period
as well; at least until 22z Monday evening, when some MVFR CIGs
could develop.

There is a lull in the snow/precipitation now across our Central
NY terminals with VFR visibility and MVFR/VFR CIGs observed.
The light snow will push back in from the south by 02/03z this
evening, bringing MVFR vsby with -SN to ITH and ELM, with tempo
IFR vsbys possible, especially at ELM through about 7/8z early
Monday morning. After this, expect VFR vsbys much of the time at
these two terminals, but lingering MVFR/MVFR Fuel Alt CIGs are
forecast to continue the rest of the TAF period.

The light snow pushes back into BGM between 01/02z this
evening, with IFR vsbys then expected until another dry slot
develops around 06/08z early Monday morning and vsby improves
back to low end VFR for a time. BGM remains on the western edge
of the snow shield from the Nor` Easter Monday morning and some
additional IFR snow showers may try to redevelop over the
terminal mainly from about 13-18z Monday. Low confidence on this
though currently. Expect some areas of blowing snow and MVFR
CIGs Monday afternoon at BGM.

KAVP in particular will get into snow and gusty winds with a
least IFR conditions though it is possible heavier snow bands
could reach at times to cause worse conditions in addition to
blowing snow restricting visibility worse-than-forecast.
Conditions improve back to MVFR here as the snow ends by around
16z Monday; but lingering blowing snow is expected as NW winds
gusts 30-35 kts.

Outlook...

Monday night...System exits for general improvement, though
some lake enhanced light snow/associated restrictions could make
its way towards KITH- KELM in the afternoon, then KSYR Monday
night.

Tuesday morning through evening...Mainly VFR.

Late Tuesday night through through Thursday night...Occasional
restrictions with a couple waves of snow and/or rain.

Friday...Mainly VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM EST Monday for PAZ038-039.
     Winter Storm Warning until 7 PM EST Monday for PAZ040-043-044-
     047.
     Blizzard Warning until 7 PM EST Monday for PAZ048-072.
NY...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM EST Monday for NYZ022-045-
     046-056.
     Winter Storm Warning until 7 PM EST Monday for NYZ057.
     Blizzard Warning until 7 PM EST Monday for NYZ062.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BTL
AVIATION...MJM/MDP