Syracuse, New York 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

472
FXUS61 KBGM 021926
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
326 PM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front is pushing into the region, bringing some showers
and possibly a rumble of thunder this evening. Temperatures
will turn much warmer on Thursday, with highs reaching into the
70s, along with morning rain showers and possibly a thunderstorm.
Generally dry and seasonable weather returns on Friday, before
another slow moving frontal system arrives with periods of rain
expected this weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
An MCS continues to push eastward across western PA and western
NY. The anvil with this complex is producing some lightning and
very light rain out ahead of the convective line. Have added a
chance for thunder across the western Southern Tier and the
Finger Lakes region for this afternoon and evening. Cloud bases
are quite high due to the low level dry air in place and there
is some potential that portions of the western Southern Tier and
into the Finger Lakes region may see some dry lightning strikes
out of this anvil. Otherwise, looking at very light rain with
some cracks of thunder possible this afternoon and evening.

Also, out ahead of this approaching warm front tonight, a very
strong low level jet will punch into the region. Some of these
winds will mix down to the surface this evening through tonight
with the strongest gusts expected across the Finger Lakes
Region. A Wind Advisory remains in effect for Steuben, Yates,
Schuyler, Seneca, Tompkins, S. Cayuga, Onondaga and Madison
counties from 5 PM today through 6 AM early Thursday morning.

As precipitation pushes into northern areas of our CWA and into
the Catskills, there may be a few hours of wintry mix due to wet
bulbing, as dew points remain 10s to low 20s this afternoon and
evening. Very light snow accumulations will be possible before
temperatures warm above freezing later tonight with warm air
advection.

Temperatures will rise overnight as the strong mid level warm
front moves in from the west. Another short wave will come
across the area tomorrow morning and there should be enough
elevated instability for embedded thunder with showers through
the morning hours. After a round of showers in the morning,
things will dry out, but isolated to scattered showers may
still pop up in the afternoon as a cold front approaches later
in the day.

Skies look to remain mostly cloudy, but temperatures a few
breaks of sun and warm southerly flow will send temperatures
surging into the upper 60s and 70s across the Central NY and
Northeast PA regions. Surface dew points rise into the mid-50s
to lower 60s so it will even feel slightly humid out there.

Tomorrow night will also remain quite warm, with lows generally
in the 40s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
325 PM Update...

After the passage of a frontal boundary, a building high
pressure system off to the north will keep things seasonable on
Friday in the low to upper 50s. As the front exits the area
southward during the day Friday, lingering rain showers may
stick around for areas in NE PA and the Southern Tier until
Friday afternoon. The next system approaches from the southwest
Saturday. A warm front pushes through Saturday morning, bringing
moderate to heavy rainfall through the day. Current guidance
shows precipitable water values between 1 to 1.5 inches, with a
forecasted rainfall total between half an inch to up to an inch
of rainfall across the area. There will be a short lull with
intensity of rainfall as the main low center passes over the
area Saturday evening, but as the cold front associated with
this system sneaks up into the area, moderate rainfall intensity
continues heading into Saturday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
325 PM Update...

The long term period is relatively wet and slightly colder than
normal. An overhead upper-level trough develops over the area
through the weekend and into early next week, with multiple
shortwaves bringing precipitation is likely. Temperatures take a
cooling trend going into early next week as well, and there may
be some mixed rain and snow showers mainly during the overnight
hours as temperatures dip, but could happen in the daytime hours
for the early work week.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR conditions expected at all terminals through most of the
afternoon. Rain showers will move in from the west along a warm
front between 20-24z, bringing potential MVFR conditions. There
may even be some thunder at ELM and possibly SYR, but confidence
is too low to include at this time. Showers will mostly through
this evening and then there is a chance for lower end MVFR CIGs
or possibly IFR Thursday morning as more showers will push
through the region.

The other concern tonight will be LLWS overnight and continuing
through the morning hours for all taf sites with south winds
40-50kts at 2k ft AGL. Southerly surface winds also increase
later this afternoon and evening, gusting between 20-35 kts into
the overnight period.

Outlook...

Thursday afternoon through night...Eventually become mainly VFR
by afternoon for most locations; except AVP which sees MVFR or
lower CIGs linger through most of the day.

Friday...Mainly VFR expected.

Saturday through Monday...Periods of rain likely with
associated restriction.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
This morning and early afternoon will see low RH values in the
25-35% range for several hours before moisture increases late in
the day or early evening. South winds increase in the afternoon
between 10-20 mph with some higher gusts, especially in the mid
to late afternoon. Also, temperatures will be warming up into
the lower 50s for the lower elevations and valleys. There should
be a 4 to 5 hour window where RH and winds get to near critical
thresholds from about 1200 to 1600/1700 EDT. This will be
dependent on incoming moisture in the afternoon and this window
may increase/decrease depending on the exact timing of incoming
moisture advection. At this time, there is not enough confidence
for an SPS for the NY Leather Stocking Fire Zone. Also, with
rainfall likely moving into the region tomorrow evening and
tomorrow night, if any fires were to start, it is likely that
the conditions in the evening will quickly suppress any activity.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...Wind Advisory until 6 AM EDT Thursday for NYZ015>018-022-023-
     025-036-044.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MPK
NEAR TERM...MPK
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...MPK/MJM
FIRE WEATHER...