Schenectady, New York 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

783
FXUS61 KALY 030205
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
1005 PM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
An approaching warm front will bring mainly rain to valley
areas and a wintry mix changing to rain across the higher
elevations tonight. Along with much milder temperatures, some
additional showers and thunderstorms are expected on Thursday.
After a dry day on Friday, more rain is expected for the weekend
with seasonable temperatures.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Key Message:

-A period of wintry mix is expected across the high terrain of
 the Adirondacks and southern Greens tonight into early
 Thursday, resulting in locally slippery traveling and walking
 conditions.

Discussion:
.UPDATE...As of 1000 PM EDT, Precipitation continues to fall
across eastern New York and western New England. A wintry mix
continues across areas north and east of Albany, especially in
the higher elevations, with temperatures in the upper 20s to
lower 30s, and rain elsewhere. With the warm nose continuing to
advance northward, all areas will eventually change over to
plain rain overnight. Winter Weather Advisories remain in good
shape with no changes needed. Temperatures at this hour remain
mostly in the 30s to around 40 but will slowly rise overnight. A
rumble of thunder cannot be ruled out late tonight into early
tomorrow morning.

Previous Discussion:
Another line of showers and perhaps embedded thunderstorms will
be moving across the area on Thursday morning, along a pre-
frontal trough. All areas should see some additional precip,
especially southern areas, which may have missed out of some of
the overnight activity. Again, instability seems fairly limited,
so thunder threat is probably minimal and severe storm threat
is fairly low. Temps should be rising quickly on Thursday
morning and will be reaching into the mid 50s to mid 60s by
early Thursday afternoon ahead of the main cold front. It will
continue to be fairly breezy, especially if any breaks in the
clouds occur and some better daytime mixing can occur.

The cold front should finally cross by the late in the day, with
an additional broken line of showers, but this looks less
coverage and more brief in duration compared to the earlier
activity. Winds will be switching to the west once the front
crosses from west to east by the early evening hours.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure will be building into the area from the west for
Great Lakes for Thursday night. The frontal boundary will be
stalling to the south across the mid Atlantic States. Some
clearing may start to occur across northern areas for Thursday
night, but many areas may not see significant clearing until
during the day on Friday. While there may be a lingering shower
or two for southern areas on Thursday night, it will be drying
out and no precip is expected on Friday into Friday evening.
Clouds will be increasing by Friday night and some light precip
is expected towards daybreak Saturday.

After lows in the mid 20s to upper 40s on Thursday night, highs
will reach the mid 50s to mid 60s by Friday. Lows will fall back
into the 30s on Friday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Key Messages:

- High confidence in widespread rainfall this weekend, with a
  25-60% chance of greater than one inch of rain.

- High confidence in below normal temperatures beginning next
Tuesday.

Discussion:

A slow moving frontal system will be draped across the region
over the weekend. Waves of low pressure will be moving along the
boundary, which will keep steady precip in place for much of the
weekend. POPs are categorical for Sat into Sat night, with
likely POPs on Sunday. Precip will start to taper off by Sunday
night. Latest NBM probabilities show over a 60% chance of 1.00+"
of rain over the Adirondacks this weekend, with values as low as
25% over southern areas. In addition to the precip, it will be
cloudy all weekend. Temps look cooler on Saturday with highs in
the 40s, but may warm into the 50s for valley areas by Sunday.

Early next week, a cold front will be passing through the
region on Sunday night into early Monday. Precip may change to
some snow on the backside before ending across the high terrain
as colder air starts to work into the region and temps fall back
into the 30s.

While it still may be somewhat seasonable on Monday, much colder
air is expected by Tuesday and Wednesday behind a secondary
boundary. Some passing snow showers are expected Tuesday into
Wednesday with this secondary front, especially if a wave of low
pressure develops along this boundary. Temps look below normal
with highs only in the 30s to mid 40s and overnight lows in the
20s.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Through 00z/Fri...Warm front is pushing across the TAF sites
resulting in some rain mixed with sleet at times at
KALB/KGFL/KPSF. Mixed MVFR/VFR conditions will trend to mainly
MVFR at these sites over the next few hours and then remain
MVFR for most the overnight with periods of rain. Cigs could
lower to near IFR levels toward 12z/Thu at some sites. At KPOU,
precipitation has already passed and a period of mainly dry
weather is expected before rain increases after 06z/Thu with
cigs/vsbys also eventually lowering to MVFR and maybe near IFR
around 12z/Thu.

The rest of Thursday will feature continued MVFR cigs (maybe
IFR early in the morning at some sites) with a period of rain
transitioning to scattered showers from late morning through the
afternoon.

Wind will be southeasterly at 10-15 kt with gusts 20-25 kt
tonight then become south to southwesterly on Thursday at 10-20
kt with gusts to around 30 kt, especially at KALB. Periods of
LLWS will be possible at all sites beginning overnight and
continuing into Thursday as winds at 2000 ft increase to between
40-60 kt.

Outlook...

Thursday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: High Operational Impact. Definite RA.
Saturday Night: High Operational Impact. Definite RA.
Sunday: High Operational Impact. Likely RA.
Sunday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Monday: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
With a dry air mass in place at low levels, RH values will be
as low as 25 to 40 percent through the late afternoon hours.
However, winds will be fairly light during this time period.
Clouds and RH will be increasing for later today into this
evening as a storm system approaches, with steady precipitation
expected for most areas overnight. Southeast winds will be
increasing by later today and will be gusty overnight,
especially for northwestern areas.

Precipitation will linger into Thursday with some additional
showers possible. The higher RH and precip should limit fire
weather concerns for Thursday. Drier weather will return on
Friday, but RH values will mainly be above 40 percent.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...Winter Weather Advisory until 11 AM EDT Thursday for NYZ032-
     033-041-042-082-083.
     Wind Advisory from 2 AM to 8 PM EDT Thursday for NYZ032-033-
     042.
MA...None.
VT...Winter Weather Advisory until 11 AM EDT Thursday for
     VTZ013>015.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Frugis/Rathbun
NEAR TERM...Frugis/Rathbun
SHORT TERM...Frugis
LONG TERM...Frugis
AVIATION...Rathbun
FIRE WEATHER...Frugis