Schenectady, New York 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

473
FXUS61 KALY 231124
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
624 AM EST Sat Nov 23 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure just off the New England coast will keep our
weather unsettled through today, with breezy conditions, rain
and mountain snow expected. We will dry out with a mix of sun
and clouds Sunday and Monday, with our next system arriving just
before the Thanksgiving holiday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Key Messages:

- Rain and mountain snow showers taper off by mid-morning

- Additional lake effect rain/snow showers in the Mohawk Valley and
  western ADKs late this afternoon into tonight

- Breezy with gusts this afternoon and tonight around 30-45 MPH

Discussion:
.UPDATE...As of 620 AM EST, band of rain and mountain snow in
place across far eastern NY, southern VT and western MA is
slowly weakening as CVA supporting the band exits the region to
the west. CAMs remain in good agreement of this precip
diminishing in the next 1-2 hours, with activity becoming more
scattered by midday. POPs are on track and little change was
made to the near term. Previous discussion below...

[PREVIOUS 334 AM]...06z surface analysis depicted a vertically
stacked low over the Mid Atlantic, with another surface low
positioned well off the New England coast. Plentiful lift from
CVA and moisture continue to rotate around the low across
eastern NY and western New England, and was driving a band of
rain/mountain snow currently in place from the Mohawk Valley
into southern VT. Heading through the morning, this band of
precipitation will continue to move south and west across the
region before gradually diminishing with weakening lift. Higher
elevations of the Catskills, Greens and Berkshires above 1000 ft
could see an additional 1 to 3 inches of accumulation through
700 AM. While the remainder of the day will feature plenty of
clouds for most (valley locations could see some breaks of sun
with downsloping winds), areas across the Mohawk Valley and
western ADKs will see an increased chance of POPs later this
afternoon into tonight (30-70%) with an approaching shortwave.
This shortwave should phase into the departing upper level low,
with precip chances diminishing later tonight.

Speaking of which, the surface low off the New England coast is
progged to deepen quite substantially today, dropping from about 992
hPa right now to around 970-975 hPa just off the coast of Nova
Scotia tonight. This deepening will help tighten the pressure
gradient across the area, with the 925-850 hPa jet strengthening to
around 40-55 kts across eastern NY and New England this afternoon.
With fcst soundings suggesting CAA aloft promoting momentum transfer
of winds aloft to the surface with shallow mixing, we should
have no trouble getting quite windy across the area beginning
later this morning. Latest probabilistic HREF and NBM suggests a
high favorability of winds out of the northwest gusting around
30-35 MPH in valleys (60-100%), with gusts around 40-45 MPH
possible at higher elevations of the Catskills, Berkshires and
Litchfield Hills (50-80%). These winds will persist into tonight
with little in the way of boundary layer decoupling.

Highs this afternoon will range from the upper 30s (terrain) to mid
40s (valleys), with lows tonight dropping into the 20s (terrain) to
upper 30s (valleys).

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Key Messages:

- Continued breezy conditions Sunday with gusts around 30-40 MPH

- Lake effect rain and snow showers diminish Sunday morning with dry
  conditions through daytime Monday

Discussion:
Northwest flow and a tight pressure gradient will be in place
across our area for the start of the short term period. Any
leftover rain and snow showers from the aforementioned shortwave
should diminish by Sunday morning, with skies slowly clearing
out into Sunday night and Monday. While still gusty at around
30-40 MPH during the daytime, winds should begin to diminish
late Sunday into Sunday night with the approach of weak surface
high pressure from the southeast US. This high will keep our
weather dry Sunday night through daytime Monday.

Continued northwest flow and CAA will keep highs ranging from the
low 30s (terrain) to mid 40s Sunday, with overnight lows dropping
into the upper teens and low 20s (terrain) to near 30 (valleys).
Monday highs will be milder with a weak warm front accompanying the
surface highs, with values in the afternoon ranging from near 40
(terrain) to low 50s (valleys).

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The period starts with a low pressure system tracking NE from the
central Great Lakes Mon night to just north of Lake Ontario by Tue
morning. This will be accompanied by a progressive open wave trough
aloft. This system looks to bring fairly widespread showers. QPF
should be limited to around 0.25-0.50" due to fast movement. With a
track to the north of our area, we will be in a pseudo warm sector
resulting in mainly rain as dominant precip type. There could be
some snow mixed in at the highest elevations in mountain areas.
Showers should taper off by Tue afternoon across much of the area,
except for the Adirondacks and Mohawk Valley where lake enhanced
rain showers will develop as a trailing short wave trough moves
through. As colder air starts to work in later in the day, rain
showers will likely change to snow showers in the Adirondacks.

Lake effect snow showers expected to persist Tue night into Wed with
light to moderate accumulation, although there is low confidence in
the exact locations this far out due to uncertainty in specific wind
directions. At this time it appears the most likely area would be
the SW Adirondacks with a W-NW flow regime forecast. Will continue
to monitor trends. Other than some upslope snow showers into the S.
Green Mountains, the rest of the area should be mainly dry with
temperatures cooling back down to near normal levels.

Attention then shifts to a potential winter storm in the Thu to Fri
time frame. As is typical this far out, there is little agreement
among deterministic and ensemble guidance. At this time, guidance
favors a progressive system with an open wave trough aloft. The
signal is there for a storm, but there is low confidence in the
track/intensity. As of now, the consensus is for a cyclone emerging
from the S. Appalachians NE off the mid Atlantic coast then tracking
SE of Long Island/Cape Cod and intensifying. Guidance varies from a
significant storm in our area to completely missing us to the south.
Will continue to monitor trends over the next several days.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Through 12z Sunday...Steady rain continues to taper off early this
morning, except for at KPSF where rain will persist through much of
the morning. Otherwise, just scattered -SHRA near KALB/KGFL so will
mention PROB30 through 15z. Conditions are primarily expected to be
VFR today, although occasional MVFR cigs may persist at KPOU for the
next 1-2 hours. Periods of IFR cigs may develop this morning at KPSF
as winds become more north/northwest resulting in upslope flow
there. From this afternoon into tonight, mainly dry conditions are
expected, with BKN-OVC cigs at VFR levels.

Winds will initially be northerly around 5-10 kt early this morning,
becoming northwest and increasing 15-20 kt with gusts of 25-35 kt
developing by this afternoon. Winds will remain breezy/gusty through
tonight.

Outlook...

Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: High Operational Impact. Definite SHRA.
Tuesday: High Operational Impact. Breezy. Likely SHRA.
Tuesday Night: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Wednesday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thanksgiving Day: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of
RA...SN.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Speck
NEAR TERM...Speck
SHORT TERM...Speck
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...JPV