Rochester, New York 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

550
FXUS61 KBUF 150654
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
154 AM EST Fri Nov 15 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure passing to our south will weaken with showers across
Western New York tapering off early this morning. Cloud cover
associated with this system will through much of the day today and
into tonight, especially south of Lake Ontario. A slow moving area
of high pressure will then bring fair and dry weather for the
upcoming weekend. Showers with a weak passing cold front will be
possible for Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A weakening area of low pressure across western Lake Erie will
continue to move slowly into Ohio valley this morning. Only a few
lingering showers remain across portions of the area, mainly west of
Rochester and the Finger Lakes areas. Lows will mainly be in the mid
30s to lower 40s across Western NY but it will be much cooler across
the Eastern Lake Ontario region where there will be some radiational
cooling underneath thin high cloud cover.

Mid level and surface ridging builds in fairly aggressively today
behind the weakening are of low pressure. Would not completely rule
out some light showers across far southwestern New York, but
otherwise mainly dry conditions. Guidance is starting to keep lower
clouds in place for much of the day today with lingering low level
moisture, especially south of Lake Ontario. Temperatures today will
climb into the upper 40s to lower 50s for most areas.

An eroding ribbon of moisture across WNY and passing weak vorticity
maxima embedded within a cool (850H temps ~0C) northwest flow will
bring extra clouds and potentially a few additional rain showers to
the area tonight. This should be spatially limited to areas
southeast of Lake Erie, particularly the higher terrain of the
western Southern Tier. Surface temps should dip back into the
30s from WNY to the Finger Lakes overnight, with a range of 20s
across the North Country where skies will be clearer and winds a
bit calmer.

Saturday, high pressure and a ridge building into the region
will bring fair dry weather to the forecast area. Temperatures
will be in the mid 40s to mid 50s from the higher terrain to
the lower elevations. Clouds will continue to slowly erode over
the western third of the area, while the eastern portions of
the forecast area will be mostly sunny to sunny for the bulk of
the day.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
A broad mid level ridge and associated sfc high will drift across
the Lower Great Lakes Saturday night and Sunday. This will promise
to provide us with continued fair dry weather with temperatures
surging into the low to mid 50s for Sunday afternoon.

A robust shortwave over the Upper Great Lakes Sunday evening will
then push a cold front through our forecast area during the course
of Sunday night. While this frontal passage should be able to
generate at least scattered rain showers...its quick progressive
nature will limit QPF to under a tenth of an inch.

Fair weather will then return to the region on Monday...as strong
cyclogenesis over the central plains will combine with a large
closed low over the St Lawrence valley to pinch off an amplifying
ridge to our west through Monday night.  While this will once again
guarantee fair dry weather across the western counties...there will
likely be some residual showers over the Eastern Lake Ontario region
for at least a part of Monday.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Ridging aloft will build across the Lower Great Lakes on Tuesday
which will largely Support fair dry weather. The exception could be
over the far western counties where the onset of warm advection
might allow for a few scattered showers. There will be a better
chance for this though Tuesday night when the axis of the ridge
should drift immediately to our east.

Low confidence forecast Wednesday through the end the week. Right
now...the overall evolution of the large trough (closed low) to our
west and its impact on the Lower Lakes is less than certain. For
that reason...have leaned on NBM guidance and lowered PoPs late in
the week. We may see dry weather extend through this entire period.

Otherwise...temperatures during the period will continue to remain
5 to 10 degrees above normal.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A weakening area of low pressure will drift across the Ohio Valley
this morning. Most shower activity with the system has tapered off,
but a spotty shower or two can`t be ruled out. Some mist/patchy fog
is causing some reductions to VSBYs across the higher terrain of the
Western Southern Tier. The system will also bring lower CIGs, likely
in the MFVR category at KBUF and KIAG and IFR across higher terrain
including KJHW. A few periods of LIFR CIGs may also be possible at
times at KJHW.

Guidance is starting to come into better agreement that lower clouds
will linger longer into the day, and even into tonight as low level
moisture remains in place longer. The best chance for lower clouds
will be south of Lake Ontario, where MVFR conditions are expected
for much of the day. Higher terrain areas, including in/near KJHW
will remain around the IFR/MVFR levels for CIGs today.

Tonight, lingering low level clouds will cause MVFR CIGs for most
areas south of Lake Ontario, with slow improvements through the
night to VFR conditions. Periods of IFR CIGs will be possible at
KJHW tonight.

Outlook...

Saturday and Sunday...VFR.
Monday...Restrictions possible with a chance of rain showers
east of the lakes.
Tuesday...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
The area of low pressure will pass south of the lower Great Lakes
this morning, subsequently weakening the pressure gradient over the
region and allowing winds and associated waves to subside.

Winds will veer around to north-northwest today at under 15 knots
with some choppy conditions possible on the central and eastern
basin of Lake Ontario.

High pressure will approach tonight and Saturday with moderate west
to northwest winds developing. Light to gentle winds with negligible
waves can then be expected Sunday as the area of high pressure
passes through and east of the region.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Apffel/RSH/TMA
NEAR TERM...Apffel/PP/TMA/SW
SHORT TERM...RSH
LONG TERM...AR/RSH
AVIATION...Apffel/SW/TMA
MARINE...Apffel/SW/TMA