New Rochelle, New York 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

365
FXUS61 KOKX 102050
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
350 PM EST Sun Nov 10 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure shifts further offshore into this evening as a
frontal system approaches from the west, moving through tonight
into Monday. High pressure then builds in through midweek. A
weakening frontal system will approach from the west on Thursday
while an ocean storm develops near the Canadian Maritimes. This
storm will remain well to the northeast from Friday into
Saturday with high pressure remaining to the west. The high
should build in on Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
Surface high pressure offshore shifts further out in the western
Atlantic as a frontal system approaches from the west, impacting
the region tonight into Monday.

Increasing SW flow late this afternoon continues to advect moisture
into the area ahead of the frontal system. Thickening cloud deck
ahead of this. Conditions remain dry through everywhere thru
remainder of the day, before light rain develops and overspreads
the region from west to east this evening. Timing from latest
hi res CAMs and surface obs indicate the rain should get into
the LoHud Valley toward 22Z, NYC and surrounding areas by 00Z,
and points east by 3Z. The rain continues into the overnight,
generally tapering around daybreak and shortly thereafter. QPF
will be modest; ensemble members clustered around a few tenths
of an inch. Given the exceptionally dry antecedent conditions,
the rain will be beneficial in this respect, and the most across
the region since late September.

Also of note, ongoing brush fires in portions of northern NJ and the
LoHud Valley will continue to produce smokey and hazy conditions in
these areas. The NYS DEC has issued an Air Quality Health Advisory
for NYC, Rockland and Westchester until midnight tonight for the
fire on the border of Orange and Passaic continues. A similar
advisory was hoisted for most of NE NJ, with the exception of
western Passaic. Additionally, an SPS is in effect for New York
zones for enhanced fire weather concerns continuing. A Red Flag
Warning remains in effect for southern Connecticut as well until 6
pm this evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Rain tapers in the early morning hours as the front begins to exit
offshore, with the entire area dry by mid morning or so. Breezy NW
flow persists into the afternoon, gusts up to 30 or 35 mph possible,
especially early in the day. Overcast skies to start largely clear
by early afternoon.

Once conditions dry out, the breezy westerly flow in the afternoon
may send a fresh plume of brush fire smoke into portions of
Rockland, Westchester, and Fairfield counties depending on the
nearby fire activity. Added a mention for patchy smoke in these
areas. A well mixed BL up to 850 mb will help temperatures climb
into the upper 60s across much of the forecast area, or 10 to 15
degrees above normal for mid November.

Secondary cold front approaches late, moving through the region dry
overnight. The reinforcing boundary shifts the flow NW and drives
cooler, drier air back into the region heading into Tuesday as high
pressure begins to return. Winds into Tuesday morning won`t allow
temperatures to bottom out as low as otherwise, though still likely
falling into the 40s for most.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Key Messages:

* Dry conditions will most likely continue into the weekend, along
  with brisk NW winds on Tuesday.

* Cooler temps from Tue through Fri should moderate to above normal
  by the weekend.

A mostly sunny and brisk day expected on Tue with the area between
low pressure over the Canadian Maritimes and high pressure over the
upper Great Lakes, leading to fire wx concerns (see Fire Weather
section for details). Ridging at the sfc and aloft should then build
overhead Tue night into Wed night, with dry wx continuing but with
diminishing winds.

The ridging aloft should weaken Wed night into Thu as it gets
pinched off between a developing closed low over the western
Atlantic and an upper trough approaching from the west. The bulk of
the forcing with the western trough should dive SE toward the
southern Mid Atlantic coast, with weak low pressure developing just
E of the Carolinas, with the associated frontal system weakening on
approach to the area and yielding no more than 20 PoP Thu into Thu
evening. Dry conditions should prevail thereafter, with area once
again caught between offshore low pressure and inland high pressure
Fri into Sat. The high should eventually build in on Sunday as this
short-lived block breaks down and upper ridging also approaches from
the west.

Near normal temps Tue through Thu (with highs mostly in the 50s, but
likely not making it out of the 40s well inland Wed/Thu) should warm
up to above normal by the weekend, from the mid 50s inland to the
lower 60s in the NYC metro area and across Long Island. Meanwhile,
lows Tue night could be sub freezing everywhere except in and just
outside NYC and out by Montauk as brisk NW-N wind ushers in a cold
air mass. Temps Wed night may not be much warmer, with sub freezing
temps still likely just about everywhere except for the NYC metro
area and Long Island.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A cold front will move through the area early Monday morning.

VFR conditions expected today, but tonight conditions lower to MVFR
then IFR as rain overspreads the region. Some localized reductions
to below IFR will be possible.

Winds this afternoon will be SW 10-15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt.
SW winds of near 10-12 kt are expected for tonight. Gusts are
more occasional for this evening but expected to get more
frequent late tonight as the front gets closer. Gusty conditions
remain on Monday with westerly winds 10-12 kt and gusts up to 25
kt.

     NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB)TAF Uncertainty...

Start time of gusts could be 1-3 hours off from TAF. Should be a
lull in gusts this evening before picking back up late tonight.

Start time of MVFR and IFR could be 1-3 hours off from TAF. Some
fluctuation between categories are possible tonight.

OUTLOOK FOR 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

Monday Afternoon: VFR. SW-W winds 10 to 15 kt, gusts 20-25 kt.
Gusts diminishing after sunset.

Tuesday: VFR. NW winds near 15-20 kt with gusts 25-30 kt,
becoming more northerly at night. Gusts decrease closer to 25
kt in the evening before diminishing late at night.

Wednesday: VFR.

Thursday: Potentially MVFR in slight chances of rain.

Friday: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Small Craft Advisory is in effect for all local waters tonight
thru at least Monday afternoon. SW winds of 10 to 15 kt with
gusts upwards of 25 to 30 kt develop, first on the ocean this
evening, expanding to all waters overnight into early Monday.
Increased wind will also allow wave heights to build between 5
and 9 ft on the ocean.

Westerly wind gusts of 25 to 30 kt persists on all waters Monday
morning before gradually diminishing from NW to SE by late
Monday afternoon. Wave heights on the ocean remain above 5 ft
however, and the SCA will likely need to be extended through at
least Monday night. Winds pick up once again as the pressure
gradient tightens Monday night and into Tuesday.

SCA cond expected for all waters Tue into Tue evening with NW-N flow
gusting to 25-30 kt and ocean seas 4-7 ft. A few minimal gale force
gusts may even occur Tue evening on the far ern ocean waters S of
Montauk. Conds then quickly improve, with 25-30 kt gusts only on the
ocean and the ern Sound/bays late Tue night, and on the ocean
E of Moriches Inlet (along with 4-6 ft seas) Wed morning.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A Red Flag Warning remains in effect for southern CT with an SPS for
NYC, Lower Hudson Valley, and LI zones into early evening. SW winds
gust up to 20 kt with min RH values between 25 and 40 percent. A
wetting rainfall up to a half inch is expected for the first time
since late September tonight into Monday morning, which should
help to lower the fire spread threat some for Monday.

Tue will be a day of concern, with RH 25-35%, and NW winds gusting
to 25-30 mph inland and 30-35 mph in the NYC metro area and along
the coast in the afternoon. Wed afternoon should feature similar RH
but with N-NE winds only 5-10 mph. For the rest of the week,
slightly less dry cond expected with min afternoon RH 35-45%, along
with NW winds around 10 mph on Fri and 10-15 mph with gusts to 20
mph on Sat.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Moderate drought conditions have developed per US Drought
Monitor. Stream flows are generally below the 25th percentile of
normal for this time of year. There are no other hydrologic
concerns through next week.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Red Flag Warning until 6 PM EST this evening for CTZ005>012.
NY...Air Quality Alert until midnight EST tonight for NYZ067>075-
     176-178.
NJ...Air Quality Alert until 9 PM EST this evening for NJZ004-006-
     103>108.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 1 PM EST Monday
     for ANZ331-335-338.
     Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST Monday for ANZ332-340-345-
     355.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST Monday for ANZ350-353.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BG/DR
NEAR TERM...DR
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...BG
AVIATION...JT
MARINE...BG/DR
FIRE WEATHER...DR
HYDROLOGY...BG/DR