Henrietta, New York 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

878
FXUS61 KBUF 160639
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
239 AM EDT Sat May 16 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes with this update.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) A few gusty thunderstorms possible this afternoon.

2) Summer-like heat Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...A few gusty thunderstorms possible this afternoon.

Mid level shortwave will move across the Ohio Valley this afternoon.
Building instability during peak heating will support the
development of a few showers and thunderstorms with this wave during
the afternoon into the evening. The greatest potential for any
thunderstorms will likely be inland from the stable lakes. Threat
for severe weather is low with only marginal instability, but enough
flow aloft with bulk shear of around 40 knots could produce a few
gusty thunderstorms.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Summer-like heat Monday and Tuesday.

Heights will rise starting Sunday and continuing into early next
week as ridging establishes over the eastern CONUS. This will boost
temperatures into the 80s across much of western and north-central
New York, with a few lowers 90s possible for some of our normally
warmest spots. Some record high temperatures will be within reach,
but lower humidity levels will likely keep any heat headlines out of
the forecast. Given the building warmth through early next week, its
worth noting that area water temperatures are still not that warm
and in the 40s to lower 50s. Take precautions if you plan to visit
any area waterways this weekend and next week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Large area of high pressure centered over the Carolinas will remain
in control of our weather into the start of the weekend with
widespread VFR flight conditions remaining in place through midday
Saturday.

Flight conditions will then start to deteriorate from west to east
through the afternoon as a weak mid level shortwave and attendant
surface warm front move into western and northcentral NY bringing
increasing chances for showers areawide, and even the chance for a
thunderstorm to the terminals south of Lake Ontario. Best chance for
a thunderstorm will be in and around the KROC and KJHW terminals.
VSBY restrictions will be minor, although brief MVFR/IFR will be
possible within any heavier shower or storm. Low VFR to MVFR CIGS
can be expected across the western NY terminals by around mid
afternoon and into the Finger Lakes and eastern Lake Ontario regions
by late afternoon. Southwest winds will gust 25-30 knots across
western NY during the afternoon and early evening.

Mid level shortwave departs to the east taking the deeper moisture
and better forcing with it. Unfortunately, the surface warm front
will become stationary and linger across the area through the
overnight. Expect a shallow, but staunch low level inversion to set
up across much of the area tonight with the shallow layer from the
ground to the bottom of the inversion becoming saturated, especially
as surface temperatures cool in areas where the ground is still wet
from earlier showers. Pockets of drizzle appear possible as well.
Also looks like a decent setup for the possibility of marine fog
with warm moist air overtop the still chilly lake waters, which
could then be advected inland on a light W to SW wind. All this
said, IFR/possible LIFR CIGS and VSBY are expected to develop
tonight, with the worst conditions across the higher terrain and
downwind of the lakes. The one portion of the area that may escape
the worse conditions will be across the Genesee Valley (KROC) and
Finger Lakes region further away from any cold lake influences. To
top it off, marginal LLWS conditions will develop as winds decouple
and a 30-40kt LLJ lingers off the deck between 1 and 1.5 kft.

Outlook...

Sunday and Monday... Mainly VFR. Slight chance of showers early
Sunday.

Tuesday..Mainly VFR. Potential for showers and thunderstorms will
increase late in the day, with minimal reductions expected at this
time.

Wednesday. VFR/MVFR with a chance for showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.MARINE...
Strengthening south to southwest flow will support gentle to
moderate breezes through this afternoon supporting a light to
moderate chop on both Lakes Erie and Ontario. Despite this, winds
and waves will remain below Small Craft Advisory levels.

Pressure gradient will then weaken, with light winds and little to
no wave action on both lakes Sunday.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...TMA
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...TMA