Colonie, New York 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

317
FXUS61 KALY 021716
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
116 PM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
An approaching warm front will bring some rain to the
region tonight, which may begin as a wintry mix across high terrain
areas.  Along with much milder temperatures, some additional showers
and thunderstorms are expected on Thursday.  After a dry day on
Friday, more rain is expected for the weekend with seasonable
temperatures.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 116 PM EDT...A strong area of low pressure is moving into
the Upper Mississippi Valley and it will be lifting towards the
Upper Midwest for later today. Meanwhile, a warm front
extending eastward is moving into the Ohio Valley and Midwest.
Well ahead of this storm system, convection is already lifting
across eastern Ohio and Michigan and is starting to get into NW
PA and far western NY.

Mid and high level clouds having spreading across the area and
most locations are now seeing a thin high overcast in place.
Mostly cloudy skies are expected through the afternoon hours.
Surface high pressure is located just north of the area over
Quebec and it will continue to depart off to the east through
the day.

As the warm front starts to approach from the southwest, an area
of steady precip and embedded thunder will continue across
western and central NY for later today. It probably won`t reach
our area until this evening, so it should be staying dry through
at least 5 or 6 PM. The low levels have been fairly dry with
dewpoints in the single digits and teens, so it will take a
little while to increase the low level moisture. The first area
to see precip across our area will likely be the western
Adirondacks and perhaps the western Mohawk Valley.

After a cool start to the day, temps are still in the mid 30s to
mid 40s around midday. The increasing clouds and cooler temps
aloft will limit the warming for today, so highs will generally
be in the 40s (near 50 in the Capital Region and immediate
Hudson Valley). The high terrain areas, especially the
Adirondacks and Greens may only top out in the mid to upper 30s
for today.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Key Messages:

- A mix of snow, sleet, and freezing rain is expected primarily
  for the higher terrain regions of the Southwest Adirondacks
  and Southern Greens this evening through tomorrow morning
  resulting from a warm front. A Winter Weather Advisory is
  therefore in effect from 5 PM this afternoon through 11 AM
  Thursday morning.

- Above normal temperatures and rain are expected Thursday ahead
  of a cold frontal passage before mainly dry conditions return
  Friday.

Discussion:
By this evening, the aforementioned surface anticyclone and
associated upper-level ridge will have been well on its way to
exiting our region to the east, yielding an increasing pressure
gradient and winds turning breezy. Upstream, a weakening low
pressure system will continue its northeast track into the Upper
Midwest/western Great Lakes region with an attendant warm front
extending south and east into the Ohio Valley and lower
Appalachians before jutting eastward into the Mid Atlantic.
Warm air advection and isentropic lift will increase ahead of
the warm front with a southwest to northeast moisture fetch
developing off the Gulf. As a result, a stratiform precipitation
shield will begin to overspread the region beginning later this
evening, onsetting in the Southwest Adirondacks before
traversing south and eastward.

At precipitation onset, temperatures in the Southwest
Adirondacks look to be right around or just above freezing, with
forecast soundings showing a deep, sub-freezing layer until just
above the surface. Therefore, precipitation will initially begin
as light snow or a rain/snow mix. As previously stated, it could
take a bit for the dry air in the lower-levels to be overcome,
but upslope flow and fairly strong omega intersecting moist
mid-levels should help to fully moisten the column fairly
quickly. As the precipitation shield continues to gain spatial
coverage, temperatures will initially continue to cool, at
least for the first half of the night tonight, while the mid-
levels warm courtesy of the increasing warm air advection. Snow
and rain will therefore transition to a mix of sleet and
freezing rain primarily for the Southwest Adirondacks and
Southern Greens, but the highest elevations of the Berkshires
and Eastern Catskills could also see some light mixed
precipitation as well.

Latest HiRes guidance indicates a bit of a change from previous
forecasts in that dynamic cooling and a slower deepening of the
warm nose could yield more sleet than freezing rain. A strong
band of low to mid- level FGEN and persistent strong omega
throughout much of the column should help to enhance lift and
cooling such that the growing depth of the warm nose,
especially in the southern Adirondacks and Southern Greens, is
delayed. And, with surface temperatures in these areas not
widely falling to freezing or below it until a few hours after
onset, sleet should dominate over freezing rain at least until
around 10 PM to 12 AM or so. Therefore, between snow and sleet,
a dusting to up to an inch of accumulation is anticipated in the
Southwest Adirondacks, Upper-Hudson Valley, and Southern Greens. But
once temperatures do fall to the requisite level, freezing rain
will become dominant through early tomorrow morning and
accumulations are anticipated to range from a few hundredths to
0.1" with localized maximums of 0.15" to 0.2" at the highest
elevations of the Southwest Adirondacks and Southern Greens
where a Winter Weather Advisory is now in effect from 5 PM this
evening through 11 AM Thursday morning. As previously mentioned,
the highest elevations of the Eastern Catskills and Berkshires
could also receive a trace to a light glaze of ice from the
combination of freezing rain and sleet, but confidence in the
coverage of precipitation and resulting amounts was not high
enough to warrant including these areas in the Advisory. Will
continue to monitor trends in these areas and make an expansion
if needed. Elsewhere in valley areas, most of the precipitation
should be confined to areas within and North of the Capital
District where rain will be the primary precipitation type. Low
temperatures tonight will be in the upper 20s to upper 30s.

Mixed precipitation will begin to become more spotty through the
early morning Thursday before coming to an end by mid-morning
as continuous warm air advection sufficiently warms the low-
levels and temperatures rise above freezing everywhere.
Precipitation as a whole will taper off by early Thursday
afternoon but not before widespread rain moves in. And, with
forecast soundings showing some elevated instability, a few
rumbles of thunder cannot be ruled out. Once rain tapers off
Thursday afternoon, we will be in the warm sector of the
frontal system whose low will by then will be off to our
northwest just south of the James Bay. Therefore, high
temperatures are anticipated to rise above normal. Values will
be in the upper 50s at the highest elevations of the Southwest
Adirondacks and Southern Greens with 60s to low 70s elsewhere.
Additional rain showers will be possible through Thursday
afternoon as the system`s cold front begins to pass through the
region, but these should be relatively scattered in nature.
Winds will be fairly breezy, however, as the LLJ at 850 mb
increases to 50-60kt. However, a low-level inversion should
mitigate winds mixing down and gusts reaching their full
potential. Still, gusts in the Southwest Adirondacks could reach
up to 40 mph, so a Wind Advisory has been issued there through
Thursday evening.

Dry conditions are reinforced across the region by Thursday
afternoon as high pressure nears in the wake of the departing
low. Conditions will be primarily dry through Friday, though
some showers can`t be ruled out in the lower Mid-Hudson Valley
due to a nearby boundary to the south. Lows Thursday night will
range from the mid 30s to upper 40s with possible pockets of
near or just above 50 in the lower Mid-Hudson Valley and
southern Litchfield County. Upon the passage of the cold front,
Thursday evening, a cooler airmass will ensure cooler highs for
Friday in comparison to Thursday with values ranging in the 50s
and 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Key Messages:

- High confidence in widespread rainfall this weekend, with a 30-50%
chance of greater than one inch of rain.

- High confidence in below normal temperatures beginning next
Tuesday.

Discussion:

Sat should be a wet day with rain expected across the entire area as
a slow moving front lifts northward into the region. We will be on
the cool side of the boundary through the day, so high temperatures
look slightly below normal. Periods of rain continue Sat night into
Sun as the front remains in place, with multiple weak waves of low
pressure developing along the front. There will be plenty of
moisture available, with PWAT anomalies forecast to increase to +2
to +3 STDEV on Sat and persisting into Sun. Areas south of Albany
could get into a pseudo-warm sector on Sun, which would result in
highs possibly reaching the upper 60s. Cooler 50s expected farther
north. The front/waves are expected to gradually push eastward Sun
into Sun night, as an upstream upper trough finally kicks this
system east. Will maintain mostly likely/categorical PoPs through
Sun night. NBM probs for > 1" storm total rainfall are 30-50% at
this time.

Mainly dry conditions and seasonable temperatures expected on Mon
with weak high pressure building in. A cold front with limited
moisture and associated lead short wave to a large deep upper level
trough approaching from the Great Lakes will move through our area
Mon night. Isolated to scattered rain/snow showers may occur with
this system, then much colder temperatures in store for Tue as the
upper trough settles in with gusty NW winds. High temperatures could
be around 10 degrees below normal.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Through 18z Thursday...VFR conditions are primarily expected through
the next 6-9 hrs. Conditions will then deteriorate to MVFR after 00z
Thursday as a warm front and precipitation shied approaches the
terminals. A rain/sleet mix remains expected primarily at KPSF/KGFL
for several hours through about 05-08z, before a changeover to all
rain occurs. KALB may see a brief period of sleet mixing with rain
this evening before a changeover to all rain occurs by midnight.
KPOU will see scattered rain showers at first, though it will become
more widespread for a brief period around 03/12z. During this time,
expect MVFR to IFR ceilings and visibilities, with a low potential
of LIFR conditions due to low ceilings. There is also a low chance
of thunder at all terminals due to the presence of elevated
instability, but did not have enough confidence in direct impacts to
the terminals so left mention out at this time. Expect winds to
increase out of the southeast this afternoon to around 10-15 kts,
with strengthening out of the south tonight into Thursday morning
and gusts around 15-25 kts. LLWS will also briefly impact mainly
KGFL/KPSF through the morning with a nearby 40 kt LLJ.

Outlook...

Thursday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: High Operational Impact. Definite RA.
Saturday Night: High Operational Impact. Definite RA.
Sunday: High Operational Impact. Likely RA.
Sunday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Monday: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
With a dry air mass in place, RH values will be as low as 25 to
40 percent early this afternoon. However, winds will be fairly
light during this time period. Clouds and RH will be increasing
for later today as a storm system approaches, with steady
precipitation expected for most areas overnight. Southeast winds
will be increasing by later today and will be gusty overnight,
especially for northwestern areas.

Precipitation will linger into Thursday with some additional
showers possible. The higher RH and precip should limit fire
weather concerns for Thursday. Drier weather will return on
Friday, but RH values will mainly be above 40 percent.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...Winter Weather Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 11 AM EDT
     Thursday for NYZ032-033-041-042-082-083.
     Wind Advisory from 2 AM to 8 PM EDT Thursday for NYZ032-033-
     042.
MA...None.
VT...Winter Weather Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 11 AM EDT
     Thursday for VTZ013>015.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Frugis
NEAR TERM...Frugis
SHORT TERM...Gant
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...Speck
FIRE WEATHER...Frugis