Clay, New York 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

311
FXUS61 KBGM 051816
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
216 PM EDT Sun Apr 5 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Snowfall forecast were increased slightly for higher elevations
of CNY with better chances of lake effect snow tonight into
Tuesday.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) A cold front has passed through the region with steadily
falling temperatures and chances of rain and snow showers
through Tuesday.

2) High pressure and drier weather is expected mid-to-late week
starting off cold mid week before moderating to seasonable
temperatures by the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...

With the cold front through the region, temperatures have
steadily been falling and that trend will continue. Clouds are
thinning a bit this afternoon and that could halt the fall of
temps briefly but not for long. Tonight, as 850 mb temperatures
fall to around -8C to -10C, surface temperatures fall below
freezing and lake effect snow showers likely develop. Soundings
tonight show just barely enough lake induced CAPE but the
boundary layer is pretty shallow so lake effect snow showers
will be on the lighter side tonight.

Tomorrow, a deeper pocket of colder air advects in aloft as the
long wave trough axis approaches the region from the west.
Cooling aloft coupled with strong solar heating at this time of
the year will make for some steep lapse rates through at least
700 mb and potentially to 500 mb if there is enough heating.
Thermal profiles through the day will support snow with may be
a mix of rain at the lowest elevations below 800 feet with
convective showers that develop in the afternoon. Some of the
CAMs are trying to develop enough CAPE for a low end lightning
potential and graupel in some of the stronger cells that
develop. The probability of thunder is still to low to add to
the grids for Monday afternoon and evening.

With the trough axis moving through on Tuesday, temperatures
region wide will struggle to get above freezing with scattered
snow showers as a 500 mb shortwave swings through. Given the
time of the year and lack of frontogenesis for higher snowfall
rates, any accumulating snow is limited to the overnight hours
Monday into Tuesday morning before solar heating melts the snow
that fell and any additional falling snow through the day.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

The long wave trough moves east Tuesday night with strong high
pressure moving in. Despite return flow developing Tuesday
night, the calm winds and clear skies leads to a very cold
April morning. Lows are currently forecast to be in the low 20s
and teens but conditions are favorable for good radiational
cooling so there is potential for the current low forecast to be
too warm.

Zonal flow and weak warm air advection helps temperatures
quickly moderate Wednesday through Friday back to seasonable
temperatures with cool mornings and warm afternoon highs. High
pressure over the SE US helps cut off any moisture from the Gulf
so chances of precipitation is low from mid week into the
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
18Z Update...
Steady rain has exited, and now the terminals have entered a
post-frontal regime with flow from the west-northwest bringing
in a 2-4 kft agl ceiling and cooler air. A minor lake effect
response will also yield mixed rain-snow showers tonight, at
times lightly impacting KSYR-KRME. KAVP is likely to improve to
VFR later this afternoon and remain there, whereas the NY
terminals will fluctuate in and out of it overnight before
settling at least for a time at VFR.

Outlook:

Late Monday through midday Tuesday...A clipper system will brush
by with initially mixed rain-snow showers, becoming scattered
snow showers with possible restrictions, as colder air is
reinforced across the area.

Late Tuesday through Thursday Night...Mainly VFR.

Friday...A weak frontal zone may encroach into the area with a
chance of rain showers and associated restrictions.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AJG/DK
AVIATION...MDP