Buffalo, New York 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

026
FXUS61 KBUF 090228
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1028 PM EDT Tue Oct 8 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Cyclonic flow along with cool temperatures aloft, passing
disturbances and increased moisture at times will result in periods
of showers tonight through Wednesday. The best chance for
showers will be south and southeast of the lakes. Cooler
temperatures can be expected through Thursday before a brief
warmup for the end of the week into the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Water vapor imagery shows a shortwave trough across the eastern
Great Lakes region this evening. Lake enhanced rain bands are
east-southeast of Lake Erie and Lake Ontario. As drier air
filters into the region, showers will fade as they move east
overnight. Temperatures tonight will drop down to the upper 30s
to mid 40s with a mixture of synoptic and lake clouds remaining
over the area. Some areas could drop into the lower to mid 30s
with patchy frost possible if skies clear enough.

Expect that showers will reinvigorate toward Wednesday morning as
synoptic moisture increases ahead of a fairly robust shortwave
digging southward into the region. This shortwave and associated
moisture will cross the region during the day Wednesday with shower
potentially becoming fairly widespread, especially downwind of the
lakes aided by lake enhancement as 850 mb temperatures cool to near
0C. Thunder with graupel or even small hail is possible within
this colder regime. Clouds along with cold advection will likely
hold temperatures down in the mid to upper 50s, with upper 40s
to lower 50s for the higher terrain.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A shortwave rounding the upper level low will bring one more wave of
deeper moisture/colder air aloft for Wednesday night into Thursday.
Lake effect rain, with perhaps a rumble of thunder, south and
southeast of Lake Ontario will diminish through the night as the
deeper moisture pushes eastward.

Cool Thursday with 850 hPa temperatures at or below zero Celsius for
much of the region. Highs in a few areas may not get out of the 40s.
This cold start and clear skies for Thursday night as well as a
weakening wind flow with surface high pressure building in will make
for high potential for frost formation, especially inland from the
lakes.

This high will grant fair weather for Friday with temperatures
moderating back to normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
For the long term, a cold front with not a lot of moisture will drop
across the region Friday night. Best spot for measurable
precipitation will be Lake Ontario and points eastward. There will
be an uptick in the winds with the front as the pressure gradient
tightens, with overnight gusts into the upper 20s to low 30 mph
range.

Any lingering showers along the front towards the east will end
early Saturday with sunshine returning. It should be a nice autumn
day with highs in the lower 60s. This cold front to our south will
return back northward Sunday as a warm front. A little instability
of 200 to 400 J/KG of MUCAPE along the front, and near the warmer
waters of Lake Erie may allow for a rumble of thunder Saturday
night. Both Sunday (south-southeasterly) and Monday (west to
northwest) could be windy based on the track of the surface low as
well as how much it deepens, and how low the LLJ becomes. Another
cool, upper level low will pass over the region Monday and Tuesday
with showers and lake effect rain around.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Mainly VFR conditions expected late this evening with lake
enhanced rain bands east-southeast of Lake Erie and Lake
Ontario. Sky conditions generally BKN040-060 in lake effect
activity. Restrictions if any should be briefly limited to 5-6SM
with the heavy showers. A thunderstorm or two can`t be ruled out
at KJHW. Showers will generally taper off overnight before
increasing again toward daybreak. Some higher terrain areas may
have CIGs approach MVFR at times tonight, but remain mostly at
VFR.

Moisture will increase from the north as another shortwave
trough approaches the region Wednesday. Low to mid clouds and
showers will increase in coverage by Wednesday afternoon. Flight
conditions will likely drop to MVFR east of Lake Ontario and
VFR below 5k across western NY. Some showers may produce small
hail and gusty winds. A few thunderstorms are possible east-
southeast of Lake Ontario Wednesday afternoon. Showers will
taper off Wednesday evening.

Outlook...

Thursday through Saturday...VFR, but a chance for showers Friday
night with MVFR flight conditions.

Sunday...Restriction possible with showers likely.

&&

.MARINE...
Moderate to occasionally fresh westerlies this evening will
maintain choppy conditions on Lake Erie and Lake Ontario. There
will be a brief period of small craft conditions on the eastern
end of Lake Erie. A steady, westerly wind will bring small
craft conditions to Lake Ontario tonight, possibly going into
Wednesday.

A chilly airmass and relatively warm lakes will produce steep enough
lapse rates to support the development of waterspouts, especially on
Lake Ontario. This risk will decrease this afternoon before the risk
increases again toward Wednesday morning and continues through
Wednesday.

Moderate to fresh northwest winds will increase enough Wednesday to
bring the potential for SCA conditions to the south shore of Lake
Ontario and to the Lake Erie shoreline.

High pressure builds over the lower Great Lakes by Thursday with
conditions improving for the second half of the week.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM Wednesday to 5 AM EDT Thursday
         for LEZ040-041.
         Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Thursday for
         LOZ042-045.
         Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Thursday for LOZ043-
         044.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SW/TMA
NEAR TERM...HSK/TMA
SHORT TERM...Thomas
LONG TERM...Thomas
AVIATION...HSK/SW/TMA
MARINE...RSH/SW/TMA