Buffalo, New York 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

454
FXUS61 KBUF 121749
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
149 PM EDT Thu Jun 12 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak cold front will pass south across the region this afternoon,
with clouds and a few sprinkles giving way to increasing sunshine.
The front will stall just south of the area tonight through the
weekend, with a series of weak low pressure systems moving along the
frontal boundary. This will maintain a chance of showers and a few
thunderstorms Friday through Monday, with the best chance of rain
found across the Southern Tier, and a better chance of extended rain
free periods farther north across the rest of the area.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A weak baroclinic wave and right entrance region upper level jet
dynamics are supporting a streak of mid level cloud cover and a few
sprinkles across Western and Central NY early this afternoon. The
associated forcing will quickly break down, allowing for clouds to
drift south and scatter out through the rest of the afternoon with
increasing amounts of sunshine.

Tonight, a cold front will stall south of the area across Ohio and
PA, with dry weather prevailing across the eastern Great Lakes.
Clearing this evening will give way to increasing clouds from
southwest to northeast as warm advection and moisture transport in
the mid/upper levels increases.

Friday, the frontal boundary stalled to our south will begin to move
back northward as a warm front later in the afternoon in response to
a southern stream closed low advancing into the mid Mississippi
Valley. A broad area of deeper moisture will begin to advect north
ahead of this system, supporting an increasing chance of showers
across the Southern Tier later in the afternoon. There may be enough
instability to support an isolated thunderstorm as well. Areas along
and north of the NYS Thruway will stay dry, further removed from
increasing moisture and forcing.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Through the weekend a stalled frontal boundary over the Ohio Valley
and southern PA border will make subtle north/south oscillations as
a broad mid-level trough slowly trudges east from the mid-
Mississippi Valley. High pressure across much of Ontario and Quebec
will cause east/northeasterly flow to dominate across our region,
preventing a more northward intrusion of the boundary. Guidance
is continuing to trend further southward with the placement of
these features and thus advertising more dry time in the mix,
though with a lack of synoptic forcing in place the coverage of
shower/thunderstorm activity remains uncertain through this
period. Chances will likely be greatest Friday night as weak
shortwave energy moves through the eastern Great Lakes, then
Saturday and Sunday afternoons across the southern portions of
the area with diurnal heating and in closer proximity to the
boundary. Lighter/more isolated shower activity cannot be ruled
out outside these timeframe.

Otherwise, temperatures will be on the cool but comfortable side
through Saturday, though warm to more seasonable readings for the
back half of the weekend.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A secondary wave of low pressure will slowly ripple northeastward
across a stalled frontal boundary over the Ohio Valley Monday
through Tuesday night. This will finally cause it to slowly lift
back northward with a more notable warming trend and continued
chances for showers and thunderstorms, particularly during the
afternoon hours. More widespread activity is expected Wednesday
through Thursday as more robust troughing moves across the Great
Lakes, though track, timing, and strength of this energy
remains highly uncertain at this range.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR will prevail this afternoon through Friday.

A weak baroclinic wave and forcing from and upper level jet streak
are supporting a streak of mid level clouds and a few sprinkles
across Western and Central NY early this afternoon. Forcing will
quickly break down through the rest of today, with allowing the
clouds to scatter out.

Tonight through Friday morning expect a few areas of mid/high clouds
with VFR. A stalled frontal zone south of the area will begin to
move back north as a warm front later Friday afternoon. This will
bring an increasing chance of showers to the Southern Tier later in
the day, along with a chance of an isolated thunderstorm or two.
Farther north, mainly dry weather and VFR will continue for the rest
of the area.

Outlook...

Saturday through Monday...Mainly VFR with a chance of a few showers
for most of the area. A better chance of showers, MVFR CIGS, and
isolated thunderstorms will be found across the Southern Tier.

Tuesday...Mainly VFR with a chance of showers and thunderstorms,
especially southern portions of the area.

&&

.MARINE...
Moderate westerlies will continue today on Lake Ontario with choppy
conditions. Expect much lower wind speeds on Lake Erie.

Winds will become northeast on Lake Ontario and Lake Erie tonight
and continue through the weekend, with a fairly persistent
light to moderate chop.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Hitchcock
NEAR TERM...Hitchcock
SHORT TERM...PP
LONG TERM...PP
AVIATION...Hitchcock
MARINE...Hitchcock