Buffalo, New York 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

108
FXUS61 KBUF 282322
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
722 PM EDT Sun Jun 28 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes to the forecast with this update.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) The chance for showers and thunderstorms will increase late
Monday night through Tuesday.

2) Dangerous heat and humidity expected for a majority of the
week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...The chance for showers and thunderstorms will
increase late Monday night through Tuesday.

A warm front is expected to move across the forecast area Monday
night through Tuesday and bring the arrival of a very warm and moist
airmass. Increasing mid-level lapse rates and high PWATS will
support increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms across
western NY. Some guidance suggests upstream convection or a
convectively induced shortwave trough may ride along the ridge into
western NY by Tuesday morning. Due to the uncertainty in the
evolution of the upstream convection and time of day, the threat for
any strong storms remains low. If this activity materializes, it
would likely move across the Finger Lakes to eastern Lake Ontario
region through Tuesday afternoon.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Dangerous heat and humidity expected for a
majority of the week.

An upper level ridge will build across the eastern Great Lakes
region through the week. Ensemble systems show the core of the 500mb
ridge reaching it`s peak of 596dm over the Ohio Valley to Mid-
Atlantic region Wednesday through Friday. This is around the
99th percentile of a 3-week climatology based on the latest
NAEFS. A warm front is expected to move across the forecast area
Monday night through Tuesday. This will bring 850mb
temperatures +20C and dewpoints rising into the upper 60s to low
70s. Forecast high temperatures are in the upper 80s to low
90s, with heat indices in the 90s Tuesday. There is a chance of
showers and thunderstorms across western NY Tuesday morning, and
across north-central NY Tuesday afternoon. The combination of
rain and cloud cover may limit the full potential for heat
across the region.

As the ridge builds across the region Wednesday through Thursday,
precipitation chances will decrease, and mostly sunny skies are
expected. Very warm and humid conditions will develop during the
day, with muggy conditions persisting overnight. Confidence is
increasing that widespread heat indices will surpass 95F. Some
locations along the lake plains south of Lake Ontario are expected
to reach 100F. A southwest wind is expected to increase Wednesday,
which may give some relief during the day. Overnight low
temperatures in the 70s and high dewpoints will result in little
relief overnight. Confidence is high that heat headlines will be
in effect.

The ridge will begin to slowly flatten across the region Friday into
the weekend. Warm and humid conditions are expected to continue
across the region, however an increasing chance of showers and
thunderstorms may limit the full potential for heating.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Mainly VFR flight conditions continuing tonight. The only exception
will again be across the Southern Tier where conditions will be
favorable for some valley fog formation later tonight through an
hour or two after sunrise. This may also bring a period of MVFR/IFR
to KJHW, especially between 08Z-11Z.

Any fog across the Southern Tier burns off early Monday, with
widespread VFR flight conditions expected through the day. VFR
diurnal cu will blossom again Monday afternoon along and inland of
any lake breeze boundaries.

Outlook...

Later Monday night and Tuesday...Mainly VFR. Showers and
thunderstorms likely with localized flight reductions possible in
heavier showers/storms.

Wednesday and Thursday...Mainly VFR.

Friday...Mainly VFR. Chance of showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.MARINE...
Surface high pressure will persist across the eastern Great Lakes
region through Monday. Light to modest winds and minimal wave action
will continue on the Lakes. A warm front will move across the region
early Tuesday, and southwest winds will increase each day during the
week.

The warm frontal passage may also bring the potential for at least a
few showers and thunderstorms Monday night and Tuesday...some of
which could produce locally higher winds and waves.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...HSK
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...HSK