Buffalo, New York 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

874
FXUS61 KBUF 221759
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1259 PM EST Mon Dec 22 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front will move through the eastern Great Lakes late tonight
through Tuesday, bringing a period of light snow which will change
to rain before ending across lower elevations. There may be a brief
window of freezing rain in a few locations across the Southern Tier
and Finger Lakes during the transition, but any ice will be very
minor and quickly melt as temperatures rise above freezing.
Precipitation will remain all snow for the higher terrain east of
Lake Ontario where moderate accumulations are expected. Mainly dry
weather will then return for Wednesday through Christmas Day with no
travel impacts expected.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A mix of clouds and some limited sunshine will give way to
thickening clouds from west to east through the rest of the
afternoon. Some flurries or light snow may develop across Western NY
this evening with minimal accumulation.

Surface low pressure will pass well north of the region late tonight
through Tuesday night. An associated warm front and wing of warm
advection and isentropic upglide will cross the eastern Great Lakes
from west to east tonight through Tuesday. Forcing and moisture both
improve overhead late tonight and early Tuesday as this feature is
crossing the eastern Great Lakes, so expect the shield of
precipitation to become better organized overhead, then move east
into the eastern Lake Ontario region by midday. The steady warm
front driven precipitation will end by midday across Western NY,
then taper off later in the afternoon east of Lake Ontario.

As far as precipitation type goes, expect mostly snow tonight
through early Tuesday morning, although the immediate lakeshores may
see some rain mix in as surface temperatures rise just above
freezing. Ongoing warm advection at the surface and through the
column will then allow for a change to rain from west to east on
Tuesday near the end of steady precipitation. Forecast soundings and
high-res guidance suggests there is a brief 1-2 hour window of
freezing rain potential across the Southern Tier and Finger Lakes
where surface cold air will be a little slower to retreat. If any
ice materializes it will be brief and very light, with precip ending
or changing to rain quickly.

East of Lake Ontario, the higher terrain will remain mostly snow
through the event. There may be a brief window Tuesday evening where
the mid levels dry and warm, allowing for some freezing drizzle
across the higher terrain of the Tug Hill Plateau and western
Adirondacks. This will then change back to snow overnight as wrap
around moisture increases and temperatures aloft cool. Wrap around
upslope snow and some lake enhancement will bring some additional
accumulations to the higher terrain of the Tug Hill Plateau and
western Adirondacks overnight.

As far as accumulations go, the greatest amounts will be across the
Tug Hill Plateau and western Adirondacks with 3-6" possible Tuesday
through early Wednesday morning. Elsewhere, accumulations will be
limited to 1-2". A Winter Weather Advisory has been issued for
Oswego, Jefferson, and Lewis counties for the moderate accumulations
across higher terrain, but impacts for most lower elevation
locations will be minor.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A trough across the Northeast Wednesday morning will continue to
exit southeast into the Atlantic, supporting weak ridging/quasi-
zonal flow across the Great Lakes. Meanwhile at the surface, exiting
low pressure off the New England coast, will give way to an
elongated area of high pressure across the central Great Lakes. As
the surface high slides overhead of the eastern Great Lakes, a
relaxing pressure gradient will support already elevated gusty winds
to diminish throughout the morning hours of Christmas Eve. Surface
high pressure will then continue to gradually slide southeast across
the Eastern Seaboard through Christmas Eve night.

Two clipper systems will simultaneously drop southeast across the
Great Lakes into the Ohio Valley and across the Northeast Christmas
day. Overall these systems are expected to spare the region, with
only a slight chance for a few snow showers across the eastern Lake
Ontario region Christmas morning. The next area of surface high
pressure will then slide southeast across the region Thursday night,
supporting dry weather to continue. In addition the the dry weather
for Christmas Day, a modest warming trend will ensue, supporting
highs in the upper 30s across WNY and low to mid 30s across the
North Country.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The next clipper system is progged to cross southeast across the
Great Lakes Friday, as it rides along a pseudo-stationary front
across the Ohio Valley. Due to the uncertainty with the track and
timing of this system, there is medium confidence regarding the
precipitation type with this next system. Precipitation should start
off as snow before transitioning to rain throughout the day for most
of the forecast area. However, within the transition periods of
freezing rain can`t be ruled out. The only exception will be, the
eastern Lake Ontario region will remain as all snow. Overall, expect
impacts to travel Friday and Friday night.


The next system will be quick to follow with a Colorado low riding
northeast across the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes this weekend into
Monday. Temperatures ahead of this system will be warm enough to
support all rain, before colder air arrives in its wake changing
rain over to snow. Additionally, gusty winds will be possible with
the passage of this low, however this will greatly depend on the
track of the low and how far removed/close to the region it passes
by.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
An area of MVFR CIGS in stratus across the North Country including
KART will persist through mid to late afternoon. Otherwise VFR will
prevail through the rest of the daylight hours.

A warm front will cross the area from west to east tonight through
Tuesday. Precipitation will develop and become more widespread along
the advancing warm front late tonight and early Tuesday before
tapering off from west to east late morning through the afternoon.
Precipitation type will be mainly snow tonight through early Tuesday
morning, then transition to rain for most areas from west to east
near the ending of precipitation. There may be a brief 1-2 hour
window of freezing rain across the Southern Tier and Finger Lakes
during the transition, but if ice materializes it would be brief and
quickly melt as temperatures rise above freezing. East of Lake
Ontario, the higher terrain will stay all snow through the event.

CIGS will deteriorate to MVFR tonight as deeper low level moisture
arrives, then deteriorate further to widespread IFR Tuesday as the
system leaves behind abundant low level moisture beneath a steep
inversion. VSBY will be IFR in snow later tonight through Tuesday
morning.

Outlook...

Wednesday...MVFR CIGS in stratus early, improving to VFR.

Thursday...Mainly VFR.

Friday...MVFR/IFR with mixed precipitation likely.

Saturday...Mainly VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Moderate southwest winds will bring elevated winds and waves to
offshore waters through this evening, with most of the 4 foot+ wave
action staying offshore of the nearshore zones.

Low pressure will then pass well north of the area late Tuesday
through Tuesday night, bringing another period of stronger winds and
high end Small Craft Advisory conditions to Lake Erie and Lake
Ontario from Tuesday afternoon through early Wednesday, highest on
Lake Ontario.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Winter Weather Advisory from 4 AM Tuesday to 7 AM EST
     Wednesday for NYZ006>008.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Hitchcock
NEAR TERM...Hitchcock
SHORT TERM...EAJ
LONG TERM...EAJ
AVIATION...Hitchcock
MARINE...Hitchcock