Buffalo, New York 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

781
FXUS61 KBUF 230856
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
356 AM EST Tue Dec 23 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front will bring mainly light snowfall through early this
morning, which will change to rain before ending across lower
elevations today. There may be a brief window of freezing rain in a
few locations across the Southern Tier and Finger Lakes during the
transition, but any ice will be very minor and quickly melt as
temperatures rise above freezing. Mainly dry weather will then
return for Wednesday through Christmas Day with no travel impacts
expected.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A warm front extending in across the Lower Lakes will bring some light
snow through early this morning, although the immediate lakeshores
may see some rain as surface temperatures are fairly marginal across
lower elevations. That said...thermal profiles will continue to warm
as we head through the morning hours, with snow mixing with rain or
changing over all together before ending. As was noted...there is
also a potential for a bit of freezing rain across the S. Tier and
western Finger Lakes region. BUFKIT profiles show moisture getting
stripped from the DGZ, which would suggest a narrow window of
freezing drizzle, if it even occurs at all.

Further east...the higher terrain (Tug Hill) will remain mostly snow
through this event. There may be a brief window this evening where
the mid levels dry and warm, allowing for some freezing drizzle too
across the higher terrain of the Tug Hill Plateau and western
Adirondacks. This will then change back to snow overnight as wrap
around moisture increases and temperatures aloft cool. Wrap around
upslope snow and some lake enhancement will bring some additional
accumulations to the higher terrain of the Tug Hill Plateau and
western Adirondacks overnight.

Otherwise...as far as accumulations go most locations will see minor
accumulations, 1-2" maybe a few isolated sposts see 3". The
greatest amounts will potentially occur across the Tug Hill
Plateau and western Adirondacks with 3-6" through early
Wednesday morning. That said...Winter Weather Advisory will
remain in place for Oswego, Jefferson, and Lewis counties for
the moderate accumulations across higher terrain.


&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Shortwave troughing along the New England coast Wednesday morning
will be supplanted by an area of sfc high pressure and weak ridging
aloft building southeast from the Great Lakes through Wednesday
night. Another passing shortwave across the Ohio Valley and a deeper
trough pivoting across Quebec Wednesday night into Thursday could
bring a few light light snows to far western NY and the North
Country respectively, though chances will be greater across the
latter. A secondary, stronger area of high pressure to the north
moving from central Ontario to Quebec will ensure dry weather
otherwise prevails for Christmas day and much of Thursday night. A
few light snow showers may reach WNY ahead of the next system late
Thursday night.

Temperatures will be seasonably cold with gradually subsiding winds
within the post-frontal environment Wednesday, then warm to near or
slightly above normal for Christmas. Colder air spilling southward
from Canada will lead to a chilly night Thursday night, with lows
near zero across the North Country in particular.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
The quiet weather will be short lived as stout high pressure ridging
shifts east of the region Friday. In its wake, a sharp negatively
tilted mid-level shortwave will move into the Northeast with the
poleward exit region of a 250mb jet sneaking overhead. This will
cause a clipper sfc low to ride along a quasi-stationary boundary
draped across the lower Great Lakes and the Ohio Valley. Precip
overspreading the area may start out as snow, but overall will
likely be a messy wintry mix with freezing rain certainly possible
as easterly flow around the cold Canadian high to the northeast
undercuts the system`s impinging warm nose. Chances for fzra appear
highest across the Southern Tier, with higher uncertainty further
north, especially around the I-90 corridor. Ptype should remain all
or mostly snow north to northeast of the Finger Lakes.

A general west to east drying trend is expected Friday night, though
chances for freezing rain or drizzle may linger across WNY (mainly
in the S. Tier). Mainly dry weather with just low-end chances for
showers Saturday as a progressive high pressure ridge crests over
the region.

This break will also be short lived as a deepening mid-latitude
cyclone near the Upper Midwest Saturday night tracks east through
early next week, with its longwave trough gradually enveloping the
entire Northeast. Still quite a bit of uncertainty in the exact
track and timing of this system, though rain is favored for most
areas Saturday night into Sunday morning with the potential
exception of the North Country which could see a wintry mix with
fzra. This will all change once the system`s arctic cold front plows
into the region from the west between Sunday evening and early
Monday. This will cause temps to plummet with a changeover to all
snow, a lake effect dominated pattern ensuing, and blustery winds on
top of it all. Far too early to begin speculating on potential
details, though long range ensembles generally advertise an initial
period of westerly flow becoming northwesterly in this regime.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A warm front will cross the area from west to east today, with some
minor snowfall for most areas. At terminals...a mixture of cigs and
vsbys will be found across the region, with IFR in snow.

Tonight...cigs will slowly improve with MVFR morning, which will change to rain before ending across lower
elevations today. There may be a brief window of freezing rain in a
few locations across the Southern Tier and Finger Lakes during the
transition, but any ice will be very minor and quickly melt as
temperatures rise above freezing. Mainly dry weather will then
return for Wednesday through Christmas Day with no travel impacts
expected.to VFR at lower terrain terminals, IFR across the S.
Tier and Tug Hill region.

Outlook...

Wednesday...MVFR CIGS in stratus early, improving to VFR.

Thursday...Mainly VFR.

Friday...MVFR/IFR with mixed precipitation likely.

Saturday...Mainly VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Low pressure will pass well north of the area today through tonight,
bringing another period of stronger winds and high end Small Craft
Advisory conditions to Lake Erie and Lake Ontario through early
Wednesday, highest on Lake Ontario.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST Wednesday for
     NYZ006>008.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 3 AM EST
         Wednesday for LEZ040-041.
         Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 10
         AM EST Wednesday for LOZ042.
         Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 1 PM EST
         Wednesday for LOZ043>045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...PP
LONG TERM...PP
AVIATION...AR
MARINE...AR