Buffalo, New York 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

641
FXUS61 KBUF 130612
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
112 AM EST Wed Nov 13 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Lake clouds south of Lake Ontario will continue to dissipate and
move over the lake this morning. High pressure and a strong ridge
will result in dry weather with sunny skies today. The next chance
for showers will move in for Thursday, mainly for the western half
of the forecast area. High pressure and a ridge build into the
region again, providing mainly dry conditions from Friday through
most of the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
Currently, some low clouds, mainly south of Lake Ontario across the
Western Finger Lakes.  These clouds will dissipate over interior
areas and focus along the south shore of the lake before moving over
the lake. This will all occur as winds shift from earlier northerly
winds to easterly winds through the early morning.

This morning, winds are generally less than 10 mph, weakening inland
from the lakes. Mainly clear skies for most areas combined with the
light winds is providing for favorable conditions for radiational
cooling. This will result in lows dropping into the teens and 20s.

Today, can expect fair dry weather to continue with the ridge and
high pressure over the region. Mostly sunny to sunny skies expected
for the daylight hours. Some high clouds will start to increase from
west to east late in the day, mainly after sunset. Winds will remain
mainly out of the east, shifting to the southeast later in the day,
with winds expected to remain around 10 mph or less. Temperatures
will range from near 50 for the western NY areas, to near 40 for
areas of the higher terrain of the North Country.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Dry weather to start the period off Wednesday night will deteriorate
across WNY on Thursday as a slow moving trough trudges east across
the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. As the vorticity maxima begins to
near the forecast area it will partially close off in the 500-300mb
layer and run up against a strong ridge of high pressure over New
England, causing it to cut southeast of the region Thursday night.
As it does so, the sfc low will partially fill in as it runs up
against the Appalachians, then reform in the lee of the mountains
near the Carolina coast before quickly moving offshore.

Looking a bit closer at the details...The initial sfc low will lift
a decaying warm front into the forecast area as it moves into the
western Great Lakes Wednesday night. Mid/high clouds will likely
increase though dry weather will prevail as strong high pressure and
a very dry airmass remains in place. As this dry air shrinks
eastward on Thursday it will make way for a ribbon of GOMEX based
moisture streaming into the region. Support from the upper and lower
level jets on the eastern flank of the trough will be waning by the
time the precipitation arrives, though height falls/DPVA aloft will
be enough to cause rain to slowly spread northeastward into the
forecast area Thursday. General timing based on the latest 12z
guidance favors the steadiest swath of rain arriving in the western
Southern Tier by mid to late morning and reaching the Genesee Valley
by the late afternoon. With evaporational cooling in the low/mid
levels and sfc temps near freezing, there is a limited risk of snow
or freezing rain at the onset across the hilltops of
Cattaraugus/Allegany counties. Have capped snow chances at sChc and
left FZRA out of the forecast entirely this update as the signal for
this appears too weak, though will need to monitor the potential as
we draw closer.

By the early evening Thursday the system will have begun to make its
aforementioned southeastward turn. This change in heading will
likely preclude rain reaching the far eastern portions of the area,
with the main batch of rain likely falling apart in the vicinity of
the central or eastern Finger Lakes through the first half of
Thursday night. Dry weather should prevail further north, with a
sharp cutoff in PoPs/QPF as one approaches the North Country from
this area, while chances for showers linger overnight to the west.
Rainfall amounts Thursday through Thursday night will range from
around 0.4" in the western Southern Tier to just a few hundredths
across the central Finger Lakes, and nil further east.

A weak to modest northerly flow will develop on Friday as the low
continues to pull away from the region. 850H temps in the low single
digits and residual moisture over the lakes could bring a few
additional light showers to the region, particularly across far
western NY and southeast of Lake Erie where moisture content will be
greatest. This activity could persist into a portion of Friday night
as well. Further east, an area of low pressure retrograding west
from the Canadian Maritimes could spread moisture across the North
Country and spark a few lake enhanced/upslope snow showers, though
confidence in this occuring is low.

Temperatures this period will start out on the colder side,
especially Wednesday night where temps east of Lake Ontario will
solidly fall into the mid and even lower 20s, though warm to near
normal readings areawide by Friday.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
An upper level ridge and surface high pressure will move into the
eastern Great Lakes region this weekend. Saturday will feature
mostly sunny skies with a light, northerly wind. An ideal set-up for
radiational cooling is possible Saturday night. The surface ridge
axis will move east of the region Sunday. Mostly dry weather is
expected, however moisture advection will likely increase cloud
cover by Sunday evening. The ridge will flatten Sunday night as an
upper level trough moves into the Great Lakes region. The trough
will likely dig into the Northeast into early next week. The
combination of increasing warm air and moisture advection ahead of
the trough will increase the chance for rain showers Monday and
Tuesday.

Temperatures will be near normal Saturday and Saturday night, then
rise to above normal Sunday through Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SCT-BKN030-040 low VFR decks will continue south of Lake Ontario,
mainly from KROC to the Northern Finger Lakes for the next couple of
hours. Intermittent SCT-BKN 030-040 decks across the northern
Niagara Frontier, mainly along the lakeshore. Mainly clear skies
elsewhere. As the light boundary layer flow slowly veers NE then
ENE, expect SCT-BKN030-040 lake cloud decks to make a sweep westward
across the lower Genesee Valley and Niagara Frontier (KROC to KIAG)
through the early morning as high pressure builds in from the west.
Lingering lake clouds will then shift offshore as winds become E
this morning. Otherwise, mainly clear skies and VFR conditions
expected.

Widespread VFR and no more than gentle breezes today as high
pressure slides across the area. Some upper level cirrus moves into
western NY from the west later this afternoon.

Tonight, VFR, high clouds start to move into the region from the
west ahead of an approaching system.

Outlook...

Thursday...Restrictions likely west of KROC in rain, otherwise
mainly VFR.
Friday...Restrictions possible with a chance of rain showers.
Saturday and Sunday...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds will veer to the east this morning as high pressure builds
over the lower Great Lakes. Wind speeds will lower and remain below
15 knots, however some choppier conditions will persist on Lake
Ontario today under persistent easterly flow, especially across
western Lake Ontario where a brief period of near SCA conditions may
develop from Hamlin Beach to the Niagara River this afternoon into
the evening.

The next upper level trough will approach and weaken as it crosses
the region from the west late tonight through Thursday with winds
veering to the southeast. This will keep winds at bay and conditions
below Small Craft Advisory levels, especially with the offshore
component.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SW
NEAR TERM...SW
SHORT TERM...PP
LONG TERM...HSK
AVIATION...JM/SW
MARINE...EAJ/JM/TMA