Babylon, New York 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

393
FXUS61 KOKX 082313
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
713 PM EDT Sun Jun 8 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front slowly lifts towards the area through Monday. The
slow moving frontal system will then work across the area
Tuesday and will push offshore by Wed morning. High pressure
then remains near the region through early Friday. Another
frontal system may affect the region late Friday and lingers
into the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
An area of rain over cntrl PA will approach late tngt, and with the
support of another shrtwv on Mon, produce shwrs late tngt and into
the first part of Mon for the cwa. The approaching upr trof will
also help to lift the frontal boundary extending off the
delmarva nwd towards the area thru the period. The local area
however will remain N of the front thru the day on Mon. This may
allow for some stratus and fog to impact the region late in the
day Mon, aft the shwrs exit.

Cloudy tngt with low temps close to normal. High temps blw normal on
Mon with an ely flow across the region.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT/...
Upr trof continues to approach Mon ngt. This will draw the warm
front further nwd. The blended approach via the NBM keeps the front
S of the cwa at 12Z Tue. This is supported by the 12Z NAM. The GFS
is a bit further N, perhaps allowing the front to get into LI. At
the same time, chances for rain will increase thru the ngt with
lowering heights and increasing dpva. With the front expected to
remain mainly S, any convective activity is expected to be elevated
attm. Therefore, the fcst is to keep temps right around normal, with
increasing chances for shwrs and embedded tstms, especially aft
midnight.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
**Key Points**

* A frontal system will impact the area Tuesday, bringing showers
  and thunderstorms especially in the afternoon. Dry conditions
  expected thereafter into the end of the week.

* A warming trend Wednesday through Friday with high temperatures
  peaking Thursday in the upper 80s and low 90s. Dewpoints should
  remain marginal keeping the heat index near the actual temperature
  during this period.

Good model agreement on a broad upper trough located over the Great
Lakes/Ontario to start the period. This trough weakens as it heads
to the east into Wednesday, as the upper flow becomes more zonal,
with some height rises and weak ridging into the end the of week.

At the surface, a warm front associated with the aforementioned
upper low is north of the area by Tuesday morning placing the area
in the warm sector. Showers and embedded thunderstorms should
increase in coverage as the day wears on as a slow moving cold front
and embedded sfc low approaches. PWAT values from model soundings
look to be in the 1.5-1.9" range, which is near or exceeding the SPC
climatology for the date (1.55" is the 90th percentile). Given the
weak mid level flow and parallel flow nature relative to the cold
front, storms will be slow moving and potentially backbuilding,
increasing the potential for a localized flash flood threat. This is
especially true north and west of NYC during the day on Tuesday.
While shear profiles look decent for organized thunderstorms,
instability looks rather marginal, minimizing the threat for
thunderstorms to be severe. The cold front and any associated
precipitation should be east of the region by Tuesday night.

High pressure then builds in for Wednesday through Friday, with
rising heights. By Friday into next weekend, a faster moving upper
low pivots through eastern Canada, bringing additional precipitation
chances through next weekend, along with cooler temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A frontal boundary stalled south of the area tonight will slowly
approach through Monday.

Mainly MVFR conditions prevail this evening, with IFR conditions
developing later tonight. Rain and drizzle tonight, and more likely
to prevail across the more western terminals. IFR/MVFR conditions
continue into Monday.

Easterly winds will continue through Monday around 07-12kt.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Amendments possible throughout the entire TAF period for changing
flight categories.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

Tuesday: MVFR or lower possible with shwrs and tstms. Varying winds
with a frontal sys.

Wednesday - Thursday: VFR with W flow.

Friday: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Persistent E winds will build seas to around 4 ft tngt on the ocean.
With winds blw criteria on all waters, so no sca has been issued
with seas blw the 5 ft criteria. Winds lessen late Mon and Mon ngt,
with seas subsiding slightly.

SCA conditions on the ocean waters are possible Tuesday night into
Wednesday with seas to 5ft in southerly swells.  SCA conditions look
to wane by Wednesday afternoon, with sub SCA conditions likely
through Friday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts are expected thru Mon ngt. Showers and
thunderstorms Tuesday look to produce a widespread 0.25" to
0.75" of precipitation. Localized amounts of 1+" are possible
given the antecedent airmass in place (PWAT >1.5"), especially
northwest of NYC, though the threat appears isolated. Thus, WPC
maintains a marginal risk of flash flooding here, though the
threat looks isolated. No significant hydrologic issues are
expected thereafter, Wednesday through Sunday, of next week.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
SE swells remain at 3-4 ft today, mixed with a long period SE
background swell and a building 2 to 3 ft E wind wave. This should
maintain a moderate to high risk of rips with a west to east sweep
of 3 to 4 ft, occasionally 5 ft breaking surf. An E to W longshore
current will likely become favored in the afternoon.

A moderate to possibly high rip risk likely on Monday with 3-4
ft ESE wind waves building, and a background of 1-2 ft SE/S
swells. E to W longshore current would be favored.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...High Risk for Rip Currents until 9 PM EDT this evening for NYZ075-
     080-081-178-179.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JMC/DBR
NEAR TERM...JMC
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...DBR
AVIATION...JE
MARINE...JMC/DBR
HYDROLOGY...JMC/DBR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...