Santa Teresa, New Mexico 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

636
FXUS64 KEPZ 140525
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
1025 PM MST Wed Nov 13 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 222 PM MST Wed Nov 13 2024

After cold temperatures tonight, mild temperatures are expected
for southern New Mexico and far West Texas Friday and Saturday.
Gusty west to southwest winds are expected to develop by
Saturday. The approach and arrival of an upper level storm
system will likely bring lower elevation rain showers, and
higher elevation rain and snow showers, beginning Sunday and
continuing Sunday night into early Monday. A few thunderstorms
will also possible Sunday night and early Monday. Dry and cooler
conditions are expected in the early to middle parts of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 222 PM MST Wed Nov 13 2024

Mild temperatures are forecast to continue across far
West Texas and southern New Mexico through Thursday through
Saturday. Highs will generally be in the 60s and 70s, except along
the Rio Grande in far West Texas, where highs will be near 80. As
expected, colder temperatures are forecast across the mountains of
southern New Mexico. An upper level trough will begin to deepen
across the Intermountain West and California Saturday, with a upper
level low developing across southern California and northern Mexico
by late Saturday. Ahead of this feature, gusty west to southwest
winds of 10 to 20 mph, with higher gusts, are forecast to develop,
with the highest winds across the higher terrain of southern New
Mexico. At this time, winds are forecast to remain below advisory
criteria.

The aforementioned upper low will develop south into the northern
Baja region Saturday night, and then begin lift northeast across
parts of northwestern Mexico on Sunday. The low will lift over
southeastern New Mexico by early to mid-morning Monday, and across
the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles by early Monday afternoon.
There is some uncertainty in the medium range models on the
specific track of this system Sunday and Sunday night, and this
could potentially have an important influence on precipitation
amounts across the area.

As the upper low approaches, chances for showers will develop
Saturday night, and increase on Sunday. The highest chances and
coverage looks to be Sunday afternoon and Sunday night, when
stronger lift will be over the area with the approaching system.
With the associated cold air aloft and dynamical cooling, snow
and snow showers will be likely in the higher elevations across
the northern half of the area, beginning Sunday afternoon and
continuing Sunday night into early Monday morning. With steeper
mid-level lapse rates overspreading the area, some thunderstorms
will be possible mainly Sunday night. The lower elevation showers
and higher elevation snow/snow showers will taper off over the
Sacramento Mountains and northeastern parts of the area Monday
morning, with the quick departure of the upper level system.
Details are uncertain at this point, but it appears that several
inches of of snow accumulation will be possible in the higher
elevations in the northern half of the area, including the
Sacramento Mountains.

In the wake of the departing system, gusty west winds are expected
on Monday. Temperatures are expected to be cooler with dry
conditions in the early to middle parts of next week, with the flow
aloft becoming northwest over the area.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1024 PM MST Wed Nov 13 2024

VFR conditions expected with skies SKC through the period. Winds
light (2-7 knots) and VRB through the overnight and morning.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 222 PM MST Wed Nov 13 2024

Expect fire weather concerns will remain minimal through this
weekend. The 20ft winds will be light with breezy at times and
temperatures above normal Thursday. For the rest of the period,
the winds will gradually increase with the strongest winds over
the mountains and above average temperatures through Saturday. A
storm system will bring rain and snow to the mountains and rain to
the lowlands starting Saturday night. Also, a cold front will
allow temperatures to cool to below normal on Sunday.

The min RHs Thursday and Friday will be below 17% areawide. The
ventilation rates will be poor to fair Thursday and Friday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  40  74  46  79 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca            36  70  44  77 /   0   0   0   0
Las Cruces               34  70  38  75 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo               35  69  40  74 /   0   0   0   0
Cloudcroft               30  55  35  55 /   0   0   0   0
Truth or Consequences    34  67  37  72 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City              37  67  41  68 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                   32  71  35  76 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg                32  71  37  74 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro       42  72  46  76 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City                32  72  38  78 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock             35  79  42  83 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda               40  68  45  71 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                   35  75  41  79 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa             35  69  39  74 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ           42  69  46  74 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range            32  69  35  74 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                    30  72  34  76 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                 34  69  37  76 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande                35  68  40  73 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                  34  71  39  69 /   0   0   0   0
Mescalero                32  64  37  65 /   0   0   0   0
Timberon                 31  61  36  63 /   0   0   0   0
Winston                  27  64  30  66 /   0   0   0   0
Hillsboro                33  69  36  73 /   0   0   0   0
Spaceport                30  69  34  71 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts             33  71  36  67 /   0   0   0   0
Hurley                   32  69  35  71 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                    23  76  27  75 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek               32  70  37  67 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                  35  67  39  69 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                   31  73  36  76 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                  30  69  33  76 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells           34  72  38  77 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale               38  72  45  69 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

FORECASTER...38-Rogers