Santa Teresa, New Mexico 7 Day Weather Forecast
Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation
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NWS Forecast for 2 Miles SSE Santa Teresa NM
National Weather Service Forecast for:
2 Miles SSE Santa Teresa NM
Issued by: National Weather Service El Paso, TX |
Updated: 5:21 am MDT Jul 15, 2025 |
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Today
 Mostly Sunny
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Tonight
 Slight Chance T-storms then Partly Cloudy
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Wednesday
 Sunny
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Wednesday Night
 Chance T-storms then Partly Cloudy
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Thursday
 Mostly Sunny then Slight Chance T-storms
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Thursday Night
 Chance T-storms
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Friday
 Slight Chance Showers then Chance T-storms
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Friday Night
 Chance T-storms then Slight Chance T-storms
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Saturday
 Mostly Sunny then Slight Chance T-storms
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Hi 96 °F |
Lo 74 °F |
Hi 96 °F |
Lo 74 °F |
Hi 96 °F |
Lo 73 °F |
Hi 95 °F |
Lo 74 °F |
Hi 95 °F |
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Today
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Mostly sunny, with a high near 96. Light and variable wind becoming south southwest around 6 mph in the morning. |
Tonight
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A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms before 10pm. Partly cloudy, with a low around 74. West southwest wind 5 to 9 mph. |
Wednesday
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Sunny, with a high near 96. West wind around 10 mph, with gusts as high as 18 mph. |
Wednesday Night
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A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms before midnight. Partly cloudy, with a low around 74. West wind 7 to 10 mph. |
Thursday
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A slight chance of showers between noon and 3pm, then a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms after 3pm. Mostly sunny, with a high near 96. Southwest wind around 7 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%. |
Thursday Night
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A 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 73. Southwest wind around 6 mph becoming light and variable after midnight. |
Friday
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A slight chance of showers, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms after noon. Mostly sunny, with a high near 95. South southeast wind 3 to 6 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%. |
Friday Night
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A 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly before midnight. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 74. South southeast wind around 6 mph becoming calm in the evening. |
Saturday
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A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms after noon. Mostly sunny, with a high near 95. Calm wind becoming south southwest around 6 mph in the afternoon. |
Saturday Night
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A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms before midnight. Partly cloudy, with a low around 74. |
Sunday
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A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Sunny, with a high near 96. |
Sunday Night
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A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 73. |
Monday
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Sunny, with a high near 98. |
Forecast from NOAA-NWS
for 2 Miles SSE Santa Teresa NM.
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Weather Forecast Discussion
532
FXUS64 KEPZ 150444
AFDEPZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
1044 PM MDT Mon Jul 14 2025
...New DISCUSSION, FIRE WEATHER...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 740 PM MDT Mon Jul 14 2025
- Available monsoonal moisture and daytime heating will lead to
daily rounds of afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms
across the Borderland through the week.
-Impacts from storms include periods of heavy rainfall with
localized flash flooding, mainly small hail, gusty outflow
winds, and areas blowing dust.
- With the general summertime thunderstorm weather pattern, daily
high temperatures top out very near seasonal averages.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 740 PM MDT Mon Jul 14 2025
A busy upper air pattern across the southern tier of the U.S. with
several features all playing some part in the flow pattern over
our region. The nose of a SoCal high is ridged over the Four
Corners to our north. A Bermuda high over the Gulf has receded to
the east. To our SW is a low pressure center over Sonora. Over
our region is the confused junction of those three synoptic
features, where in, our flow pattern is light and variable, and
inconsistent. This is part of the reason we are seeing slow moving
showers and thunderstorms. Our current moisture content across
the region is very near the seasonal normals for this point in the
monsoon. We are seeing surface dewpoints in the 45-55F range, and
PWATS in the 0.80" mountains to 1.20" lowlands range. Moisture
content is not low or high, it is just average. We been seeing
scattered to numerous showers and storms the past few days, with
pop-up severe storms due to hail and winds, and plenty of heavy
rain makers due to efficiency and slow motions.
For Tuesday the general theme will be the same, moisture in place,
heating and upslope motions destabilizing the airmass, with
buildups and storms to follow. The difference appears to be a
westward shift in the focus of most of the development. The SACs
will still get their storms, but lowland in the RGV and east
should see a noticeable decrease in storm activity. This is
because the low to our south moves west across the Baja into the
Pacific, and the nose of the upper high to our N sags SE. This
looks to concentrate our moisture to the east of the RGV. Still
isolated storms east, but more scattered to possibly numerous
storms west.
Wednesday looks to follow with a similar convective pattern,
favoring western areas over eastern areas, but some developing low
pressure surface troughing over the RGV may allow for some
moisture to spill back east a bit. Thus potential for better
storms over the central portions of the forecast area.
It appears Thursday will have a pretty uniform moisture channel
focused over the entire area as an inverted wave pass to our south
and helps to reorient the moisture plume directly over our CWA.
This could mean equal rain/storm chances across the CWA, with
high pops mountains.
As we move to the weekend, it appears high pressure nudges toward
us from TX. Models show the deeper moisture plume shifting back
over our western areas, with somewhat drier air back east of the
RGV. Honestly given the weak pattern, there is little confidence
in the detail of the forecast, beyond stating we have moisture, we
will have daytime instability, and there will be isolated to
scattered rain and storms each day.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 519 PM MDT Mon Jul 14 2025
Today`s round of showers and storms have abated with plenty of
debris clouds still in place, and a broad fetch of high-level
clouds streaming over from the SW, off of deep convection over N
Mexico. Winds will continue to slacken as outflows lose momentum.
Overnight, expect VFR conditions, with CIGS generally abv 200, few
locations at 150. Winds VRBL in the 5-8kt range. No VSBY
restrictions. Tomorrow, aft 18Z expect mountain clouds and
buildups with developing TSRA. Lowlands should remain FEW-
SCT080-100 through 21Z, then ISO buildups and storms east/SCT
west of Rio Grande. AFT 22Z, areas with tempo TSRA in VCTY of
terminal...KDMN and KTCS favored over KLRU and KELP. Possible
brief CIGs to 050, with gusty and erratic winds to 45kts, and BLDU
reducing VSBY to 1-3SM.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 740 PM MDT Mon Jul 14 2025
Although not a "textbook" monsoonal pattern, the region does have
a healthy amount of monsoonal moisture in place across all of
Southern New Mexico and Far West Texas. The pattern is weak and
complex, with nearby low and high pressure systems all meeting
over the area, with complicated and complex light flow. For our
areas, this means we will NOT either moisten or dry out
significantly through the week; only oscilate the deeper moisture
east and west across the region from day to day.
Thus we will keep our seasonably warm temperature each early
afternoon, and allow the good to excellent overnight RH recovery
to drop into the upper teens (but mostly 20% range) each early
afternoon. We expect a daily cycle of generally sunny mornings,
with late morning cloud development over area mountains. The
mountain areas will then see the first storms of the day, with the
lowlands seeing showers and storms later in the afternoon (into
the evening), pushed up mostly on outflow boundaries. Max
temperatures and min RH will likely occur in the early afternoon,
with clouds and storms bringing some cooling of temps and raising
of RH for the later afternoon hours. These storms we see each day
will have plenty enough moisture to produce wetting rains and
areas of heavy rainfall, and their motion will be slow enough that
flash flooding will remain a threat. The other primary threat to
field personnel will be the gusty and erratic outflow winds caused
by these storms.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso 96 74 98 77 / 20 20 10 10
Sierra Blanca 87 64 88 67 / 20 10 10 10
Las Cruces 92 69 94 70 / 30 30 10 20
Alamogordo 90 67 93 70 / 60 10 20 10
Cloudcroft 67 50 70 52 / 70 10 30 10
Truth or Consequences 92 70 93 71 / 40 20 30 20
Silver City 84 63 86 62 / 70 50 70 50
Deming 95 70 96 72 / 30 30 20 40
Lordsburg 93 69 92 68 / 50 40 60 60
West El Paso Metro 92 75 94 75 / 20 20 10 10
Dell City 92 69 93 71 / 20 10 10 10
Fort Hancock 97 73 96 75 / 30 10 10 20
Loma Linda 86 66 88 67 / 30 10 10 10
Fabens 94 72 95 74 / 20 10 10 10
Santa Teresa 92 72 93 73 / 30 30 10 20
White Sands HQ 92 74 95 74 / 40 20 10 10
Jornada Range 92 69 93 69 / 40 30 10 20
Hatch 94 70 96 70 / 40 30 20 20
Columbus 93 72 95 73 / 20 30 10 40
Orogrande 89 67 92 71 / 50 20 10 10
Mayhill 77 54 80 58 / 70 10 30 10
Mescalero 78 55 81 58 / 70 10 30 10
Timberon 75 53 77 55 / 60 10 20 10
Winston 83 58 86 58 / 60 30 60 40
Hillsboro 90 65 92 66 / 40 30 40 40
Spaceport 90 67 93 67 / 40 20 20 20
Lake Roberts 85 57 87 57 / 70 50 70 50
Hurley 88 64 89 64 / 50 40 60 50
Cliff 92 65 94 64 / 70 50 70 60
Mule Creek 89 63 89 62 / 80 50 70 40
Faywood 87 65 89 65 / 50 40 40 40
Animas 92 68 91 68 / 50 30 60 70
Hachita 90 66 92 68 / 40 30 40 60
Antelope Wells 90 66 88 66 / 50 40 60 80
Cloverdale 87 63 84 62 / 50 40 80 70
&&
.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&
$$
FORECASTER...14-Bird
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