Santa Teresa, New Mexico 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

713
FXUS64 KEPZ 030537
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
1137 PM MDT Wed Apr 2 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1133 PM MDT Wed Apr 2 2025

 - Breezy conditions today with blowing dust and critical fire
   danger over the lowlands

 - Light lowland rain and modest mountain snow chances Friday and
   Saturday

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 230 PM MDT Wed Apr 2 2025

A large long-wave trough covers the western 2/3rd of the CONUS
this afternoon. Embedded within this trough is yesterday`s wind
and dust maker on its way to the Great Lakes area and a secondary
speed max over us. This secondary speed max is making for a breezy
to low-end windy afternoon with satellite showing dust streams
across Mexico heading into the US. There will be some dust
concerns this afternoon, but not to the scale or magnitude, except
perhaps locally, that was seen yesterday. The speed max departs
this evening while surface high pressure settles in behind a
Pacific front. This pattern will foster a cool to chilly and
tranquil night with fairly light winds.  Jet energy remains
overhead though with the speed max offset to our south for
Thursday. It will be a seasonably cool but low- impact day.

Come Friday the large trough will form a closed low somewhere over
AZ. Models finally seem to be converging on a path for this low
though some details remain unclear. The low will make a very slow
trek to the east, and by afternoon both models indicate a warm
conveyor belt forming across the far eastern part of the CWA with
a dry slot across the Rio Grande Valley and the western part of
the CWA beneath the cold pool. The remainder of the CWA comes
beneath the cold pool by Saturday morning and then on the
backside by the afternoon. Both the GFS and Euro indicate cooler
to colder air sliding into NM with high pressure centered near
Roswell, which will help provide some added lift. Thus, scattered
showers look to be the rule for Saturday with the best shot for
rain toward the afternoon as wrap around moisture moves into
Southern NM and Far West TX. This will be the Sacramento Mountains
best opportunity for accumulating snow where better moisture,
dynamics, and upslope components overlap. 25th percentile shows 1"
and the 75th percentile shows 4", so 1-4 inches seems to be a
reasonable forecast, which is circling advisory criteria.

The low becomes a trough by Sunday and loses a lot of its dynamics
while the jet moves away and weakens. Sunday will start a stretch
of quiet weather. We will remain well below normal on Sunday, but
it will begin a warming trend. A long wave ridge will begin to
take its place next week. We`ll start off in northwest flow on
Tuesday but will be squarely within the ridge by next Thursday.
Temperatures will be back to normal by Tuesday and are looking to
be much above normal next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1133 PM MDT Wed Apr 2 2025

Low end gusty winds continue here and there across the region,
but those should drop off in the next few hours. We will see more
low end gusty winds on Thursday afternoon, but nothing like we
have seen the last couple of days, so I`m not expecting any BLDU
problems. For the rest of tonight and into much of Thursday, we
will see off and on high and mid ceilings of SCT-BKN120-250,
mainly east of the Rio Grande. Ceilings west of the river will
stay generally unlimited.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 230 PM MDT Wed Apr 2 2025

We will continue to see critical fire concerns this afternoon
across the lowlands, but after today no critical fire days are
forecast. We will see two days of elevated concerns, mainly for
the lowlands tomorrow and Friday as min RH values fall into the
lower/middle teens. Winds will not be as strong as seen the last
couple of days, topping out around 15 MPH in the afternoon. By
Saturday, cooler temperatures and increased humidity along with
the prospect for scattered showers will mitigate fire concerns.
Very dry conditions will return Monday but winds will be fairly
light.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  45  66  46  66 /  10  10  50  40
Sierra Blanca            44  64  43  58 /  10  10  50  60
Las Cruces               34  63  38  62 /   0   0  30  20
Alamogordo               36  63  40  62 /  10   0  40  40
Cloudcroft               23  40  26  40 /  10   0  50  50
Truth or Consequences    34  62  36  62 /   0   0  10  20
Silver City              27  53  30  53 /   0  10  10  30
Deming                   33  65  33  63 /   0   0  20  20
Lordsburg                30  60  30  59 /   0  10   0  20
West El Paso Metro       44  65  48  63 /  10  10  50  40
Dell City                44  66  43  60 /  10   0  50  50
Fort Hancock             46  70  45  65 /  10  10  50  60
Loma Linda               40  58  42  56 /  10   0  50  50
Fabens                   43  67  46  64 /  10  10  50  50
Santa Teresa             39  64  43  62 /   0  10  40  30
White Sands HQ           42  64  46  63 /   0   0  40  30
Jornada Range            34  63  38  62 /   0   0  30  20
Hatch                    34  65  34  65 /   0   0  20  20
Columbus                 38  67  38  63 /   0   0  20  20
Orogrande                39  62  43  61 /  10   0  40  40
Mayhill                  30  54  31  52 /  10   0  50  50
Mescalero                27  51  29  51 /  10   0  40  50
Timberon                 25  50  27  49 /  10   0  50  50
Winston                  20  53  22  53 /   0   0  10  40
Hillsboro                30  60  31  60 /   0   0  10  30
Spaceport                30  62  32  62 /   0   0  20  20
Lake Roberts             25  53  27  53 /   0  10  10  40
Hurley                   26  57  27  57 /   0   0  10  20
Cliff                    26  60  28  61 /   0  10   0  30
Mule Creek               27  55  30  55 /   0  10   0  40
Faywood                  30  57  32  56 /   0   0  10  20
Animas                   31  63  31  61 /   0   0   0  20
Hachita                  30  63  31  60 /   0   0  10  20
Antelope Wells           32  63  32  60 /   0   0  10  30
Cloverdale               32  57  32  53 /   0   0   0  30

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

FORECASTER...15-Brice