Santa Teresa, New Mexico 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

941
FXUS64 KEPZ 231152
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
552 AM MDT Mon Jun 23 2025

...New AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...

 -  Potential for heavy rainfall with localized flooding this
    week.

 -  Showers/thunderstorms becoming widespread over the entire
    area Monday through Friday. Moisture peaks Monday and Tuesday,
    with some heavy rain and local flooding possible.

 -  Below normal temperatures next week due to mostly cloudy
    skies. Lowland highs 85 to 95 degrees.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1046 PM MDT Sun Jun 22 2025

A very active weather pattern will occur across southern New Mexico
and far west Texas this week and as a southerly Monsoon flow brings
abundant moisture to the region, significantly increasing chances
for widespread rainfall across the state. Sub tropical moisture will
feed the moisture plume that will be concentrated over New Mexico by
a strong area of high pressure to the east and a low pressure trough
to the west.

This plume of monsoonal moisture will fuel numerous showers and
thunderstorms across the region Monday and Tuesday with a potential
for locally heavy rainfall. The focus on Monday will be mainly the
eastern zones of the forecast area in Otero and Hudspeth counties.
Thunderstorms and showers will spread westward into the Rio Grande
valley Monday night into Tuesday.   Precipitable water amounts of
1.4 to 1.6 inches are expected and are indicative heavy rain
potential should thunderstorms develop. There will be considerable
cloudiness Monday and Tuesday which will work against some
thunderstorm development during the day by keeping temperatures
down. However models indicate some subtle triggering mechanisms
like mid level cooling and and height falls and lifting aloft that
should be able to initiate thunderstorm development in a moist
environment.

With abundant moisture in place, thunderstorms will be efficient
rain producers with periods of heavy rainfall and localized
flooding occurring. The Sacramento mountains will have potential
for up 3 inches of rainfall over the Monday to Tuesday frame with
a potential for flooding, especially along recent wildfire burn
scars. A large part of the area from the Rio Grande valley
eastward has a 60 to 70 percent chance of greater than an inch
total rainfall amounts. Periods of heavy rain could quickly exceed
those amounts in a short period of time that could lead to flash
flooding especially in urban areas. A flash flood watch will be in
effect for much of Otero and Hudspeth counties starting tomorrow
afternoon through Wednesday morning. While there is a heavy rain
potential for portions of El Paso County as well Dona Ana and
Sierra counties in New Mexico, the highest impacts from heavy rain
and flooding potential will be more likely on Tuesday Tuesday
night.

For the rest of the week,  the Monsoon moisture plume will become
more diffuse and will weaken as the high pressure ridge to the east
breaks down and the trough to the west weakens.  Atmospheric
moisture will diminish somewhat, but there is no mechanism to
flush out the moisture from the region. Precipitable water values
will remain above an inch, indicative a favorable general
thunderstorm pattern area wide that will occur mainly in the
afternoon and evenings. Higher rain amounts will occur in the
mountains which will impact sensitive wildfire burn scars for the
rest of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 517 AM MDT Mon Jun 23 2025

As moisture continues to increase today, shower and storm chances
do the same, especially after 0z. Mainly dry conditions expected
into the afternoon with isolated to scattered SHRA and TS
developing late in the day. KELP is most favored to see TS tonight
with gusty outflows accompanying the activity. Elsewhere, SHRA
pass by later in the period, moving from south to north. PROB30s
have been removed other than for KELP as confidence is low in
direct impacts from TS. The shower activity continues through
Monday night. Winds AOB 8kts this morning from S-SW, becoming a
bit breezy during the afternoon more from S. Gusts from outflows
could exceed 30kts.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 517 AM MDT Mon Jun 23 2025

Fire weather concerns will be low for most of the forecast period.
Elevated fire danger expected in FWZ110 this afternoon due to
mostly dry conditions and modestly breezy winds. 20-ft winds of
10-15 mph are forecast this afternoon from SW. The dry air will
start to erode today in the Gila Region, allowing for isolated
showers and storms to develop off the higher terrain. Gusty and
erratic outflows may accompany the activity into the evening. The
Trout Fire burn scar is not expected to see much if any rain
today, but those chances increase tonight. Elsewhere, isolated to
scattered convection develops this afternoon and evening with
modest winds from the S-SW. Some storms are capable of producing
heavy rainfall and frequent lightning.

Rain chances increase area- wide tonight and Tuesday with higher
potential for debris flows off recent burn scars. The threat of
flash flooding peaks on Tuesday with scattered to widespread
activity, lasting into Wed/Thu as rain/storm chances begin to
decrease. Overnight RH recoveries will be good through the week.
Temperatures will be seasonably cool this week.

Min RHs will be 10-25% west of the US-54 corridor today, 25-45%
to the east; 50-80% in FWZ113 Tue/Wed, 25-50% elsewhere. Vent
rates range from good to excellent west of 54 today, poor to good
to the east; then poor to good area-wide.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  94  73  86  72 /  50  70  90  80
Sierra Blanca            83  64  82  64 /  80  80  80  60
Las Cruces               93  68  84  66 /  30  70  90  90
Alamogordo               92  66  84  63 /  50  70  90  90
Cloudcroft               69  50  62  49 /  70  70 100  80
Truth or Consequences    94  69  85  65 /  20  50  90  80
Silver City              87  61  82  60 /  20  30  70  70
Deming                   95  70  89  67 /  30  50  80  90
Lordsburg                93  64  90  65 /  20  30  60  60
West El Paso Metro       93  73  85  72 /  40  70  90  90
Dell City                88  69  84  68 /  80  80  80  60
Fort Hancock             91  71  89  71 /  80  80  80  70
Loma Linda               84  66  79  65 /  60  80  90  80
Fabens                   92  70  87  70 /  60  80  80  80
Santa Teresa             92  70  85  68 /  40  70  90  90
White Sands HQ           94  71  84  71 /  40  60  90  90
Jornada Range            93  66  84  64 /  30  70  90  90
Hatch                    96  68  87  66 /  20  60  90  90
Columbus                 95  71  90  69 /  30  60  80  90
Orogrande                90  68  82  66 /  50  70  90  80
Mayhill                  80  54  72  54 /  80  70 100  80
Mescalero                80  53  72  53 /  70  60 100  80
Timberon                 76  52  70  51 /  70  70  90  80
Winston                  86  54  78  55 /  30  40  80  70
Hillsboro                93  63  84  61 /  30  40  90  80
Spaceport                93  64  84  63 /  20  60  90  90
Lake Roberts             88  57  84  56 /  30  30  80  70
Hurley                   90  62  84  61 /  20  40  70  70
Cliff                    93  62  91  62 /  10  20  50  50
Mule Creek               89  59  88  60 /  10  10  40  40
Faywood                  90  64  84  63 /  30  50  80  80
Animas                   93  65  91  66 /  30  30  60  60
Hachita                  92  66  89  64 /  40  50  70  80
Antelope Wells           90  65  89  65 /  60  50  70  80
Cloverdale               87  64  86  64 /  40  40  60  60

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Flood Watch from noon MDT today through Wednesday evening for
     Northern Hudspeth Highlands/Hueco Mountains-Rio Grande
     Valley of Eastern El Paso/Western Hudspeth Counties-Rio
     Grande Valley of Eastern Hudspeth County-Salt Basin-
     Southern Hudspeth Highlands.

NM...Flood Watch from noon MDT today through Wednesday evening for
     East Central Tularosa Basin/Alamogordo-East Slopes
     Sacramento Mountains Below 7500 Feet-Otero Mesa-Sacramento
     Mountains Above 7500 Feet-Southeast Tularosa Basin-West
     Slopes Sacramento Mountains Below 7500 Feet.

&&

$$

FORECASTER...39-Aronson