Rio Rancho, New Mexico 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

134
FXUS65 KABQ 090559 AAC
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1159 PM MDT Sun Jun 8 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1147 PM MDT Sun Jun 8 2025

- A few severe storms will produce large hail and damaging wind
  gusts in northeast and east central New Mexico this evening.

- Moderate risk of burn scar flash flooding Monday increases to
  high on Tuesday. There will also be a low risk of urban flash
  flooding each afternoon. A few storms may produce large hail and
  damaging wind gusts in central and eastern New Mexico Monday
  afternoon.

- Temperatures will warm to the hottest values of the season thus
  far late next week, creating moderate heat risk in most lower
  elevation locations.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 610 PM MDT Sun Jun 8 2025

With strong to severe storms across De Baca and northern Chaves
County added isolated to scattered PoPs to these two zones to
account for this activity through this evening. Severe
Thunderstorm Watch in effect for eastern NM counties until 10 PM
MDT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 300 PM MDT Sun Jun 8 2025

A backdoor cold front stretched from south of Raton to south of
Clayton as of this writing. Storms have developed along the front,
but the severe weather has thus far stayed east of the state
line. Additional storms have developed ahead of the front and will
continue to move eastward. All storms are capable of severe
weather this afternoon and evening, and we will be closely
watching the areas where the front collides with ongoing storms
ahead of the front. Large hail and damaging winds the main
threats, however, a tornado cannot be ruled out, particularly if
the storm rides the frontal boundary for an extended amount of
time. In addition to storms along and just ahead of the boundary,
a secondary round of thunderstorms are expected across northeast
NM this evening as storms roll southeastward off the Sangre de
Cristo Mountains in Colorado. Severe weather isn`t as likely with
this second round of storms as they should be elevated behind the
front and mid level lapse rates won`t be as steep, but can`t rule
it out altogether.

Any storms will help propel the front south and west through the
plains through the evening, and then westward through the gaps of
the Central Mountain Chain around or shortly after midnight. Gusty
canyon winds are expected in the Albuquerque Metro, with gusts
between 30 and 40 mph likely. Gap winds will not be as strong in
the Santa Fe Metro. Low level moisture will spill westward to at
least the ContDvd by mid morning Monday, setting the stage for an
active Monday.

Showers and thunderstorms should erupt over the high terrain by
early afternoon Monday. The greatest storm coverage will be across
the Northern Mountains. Here, modest instability combined with
terrain influences and PWATs between 0.75 and 1 inch (or ~2 stdev
above normal) will allow for strong storms containing hail and
heavy rainfall. Greatest concern exists over the Hermit`s Peak
Calf Canyon burn scar. With rainfall rates up to 2 inches per
hour, heavy runoff may quickly lead to flash flooding within and
downstream of the burn scar. A Flood Watch has been issued to
account for this potential.

Models are more consistent now showing storms rolling off the
Sangre de Cristos and elsewhere along the Central Mountain Chain
toward the southeast across the plains Monday afternoon and
evening. Large hail and damaging wind gusts will be possible with
any storm. Eventually, storms should merge into an MCS across the
eastern plains before moving into Texas. All-in-all, a large area
of central and eastern NM will be favored for both heavy rainfall
and severe weather. West of the Central Mountain Chain, storms
won`t be quite as numerous, but outflow boundary collisions from
storms over the Northern Mountains should allow for a few strong
to severe storms, with heavy rainfall from the Santa Fe Metro
southward to Albuquerque. Farther west, particularly along and
west of the ContDvd, a mix of wet and dry storms are expected.

Models continue to hint at an MCV developing due to the MCS. This
circulation may keep at least isolated showers and thunderstorms
persisting through the overnight hours Monday night.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 300 PM MDT Sun Jun 8 2025

On Tuesday, the upper low that is over the Pacific today will
finally cross NM as an open trough. Weak ascent from this system
combined with abundant moisture still in place will allow for
another round of showers and thunderstorms to develop over the
high terrain. Pending how much rainfall HPCC receives on Monday,
another Flood Watch may be needed for Tuesday for that area as
well as the burn scars around Ruidoso. Heavy rainfall is possible
with nearly any storm, but severe weather should be limited to
areas across south central and southeast NM where significant
instability will be. However, any remnant boundaries from Monday`s
convection and/or the placement of the MCV could locally enhance
storms elsewhere.

The trough will shift eastward on Tuesday night, and less storm
coverage is expected for Wednesday. However, moisture will
recycle in the form of showers and thunderstorms favoring the high
terrain. Drier air will push in from the west on Thursday and
Friday, limiting storm coverage a little more each day. If storms
develop, they will favor the Sangre de Cristo and South Central
Mountains before shifting off toward the southeast.

With less storm coverage and the upper high building over the
area, temperatures will climb. Minor to moderate heat risk impacts
are expected by Friday across the Rio Grande Valley, before
expanding across much of western NM on Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1147 PM MDT Sun Jun 8 2025

Shower and thunderstorm activity across eastern New Mexico has
mostly come to an end at the midnight hour. However, low stratus
clouds can be seen on satellite imagery, quickly expanding across
eastern zones as a cool, moist airmass pushes westward. MVFR
(1,000 to 3,000 ft) ceilings will expand toward the east slopes of
the central mountain chain through dawn with isolated pockets of
IFR (less than 1,000 ft) ceilings. As the moist surface boundary
pushes westward through gaps and canyons within the central
mountain chain, winds will accelerate with gusts of 25 to 35 kt
impacting KABQ over most of the overnight, and an Airport Weather
Warning has been issued to account for this. All the moisture
moving into place will lead to numerous showers and thunderstorms
Monday afternoon, mainly from the Continental Divide eastward, but
a few virga (evaporating rainfall) showers or dry thunderstorms
will develop between the Divide and the New Mexico-Arizona
border. All storms will be capable of producing gusty and
potentially damaging downburst winds with large hail and heavier
downpours being a threat in central to eastern areas. By Monday
evening, storms will be concentrating over the eastern half of New
Mexico with cells rolling eastward through the late evening. Most
of the storms should have exited the state by midnight Monday
night with just a few stragglers lingering afterwards.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 300 PM MDT Sun Jun 8 2025

A backdoor front will slide south and west through the plains
tonight before pushing through the gaps of the Central Mountain
Chain near or shortly after midnight. Low level moisture will
spill westward, setting the stage for a wet Monday and Tuesday.
Showers and thunderstorms will erupt over the high terrain each
day before shifting southeastward through the afternoon and
evening. Heavy rainfall as well as hail and damaging wind gusts
will be a concern, though across far western NM, a mix of wet and
dry storms can be expected on Monday afternoon and eve. Storm
coverage will decrease on Wednesday, moisture will recycle in the
form of showers and thunderstorms across the high terrain. Drier
air will push in from the west Thursday and Friday, limiting
convection further. Meanwhile, temperatures will climb as an upper
high builds overhead late in the week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  56  90  58  88 /   0  10  10  20
Dulce...........................  44  83  44  81 /   0  40  10  40
Cuba............................  51  82  51  79 /   0  50  20  40
Gallup..........................  45  87  48  84 /   5  10  20  20
El Morro........................  50  82  52  78 /   0  30  30  50
Grants..........................  48  85  49  81 /   0  30  30  60
Quemado.........................  53  85  53  82 /   0  20  20  40
Magdalena.......................  57  83  56  80 /   0  50  30  80
Datil...........................  53  82  51  78 /   0  40  30  70
Reserve.........................  50  93  48  88 /   0  10  10  30
Glenwood........................  54  98  53  93 /   0   5   5  30
Chama...........................  44  75  43  73 /   5  60  10  50
Los Alamos......................  56  75  53  74 /   0  70  30  70
Pecos...........................  51  75  51  73 /   5  70  40  70
Cerro/Questa....................  49  75  48  75 /  10  80  30  50
Red River.......................  40  64  40  65 /  20  80  30  50
Angel Fire......................  37  68  38  69 /  10  80  20  50
Taos............................  46  77  45  77 /   5  70  20  50
Mora............................  46  70  46  71 /   5  80  30  70
Espanola........................  54  84  53  82 /   0  70  30  50
Santa Fe........................  55  77  54  76 /   0  70  30  60
Santa Fe Airport................  54  82  53  80 /   0  60  30  60
Albuquerque Foothills...........  62  87  61  84 /   0  40  30  50
Albuquerque Heights.............  64  88  60  85 /   0  40  30  40
Albuquerque Valley..............  61  91  59  87 /   0  40  30  40
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  62  89  61  85 /   0  40  30  40
Belen...........................  58  91  58  88 /   0  30  30  50
Bernalillo......................  60  89  58  86 /   0  40  30  40
Bosque Farms....................  57  90  57  87 /   0  30  30  40
Corrales........................  61  90  59  87 /   0  40  30  40
Los Lunas.......................  59  90  58  87 /   0  40  30  40
Placitas........................  60  85  59  82 /   0  40  30  50
Rio Rancho......................  61  89  60  86 /   0  40  30  40
Socorro.........................  64  94  61  89 /   0  40  30  70
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  54  80  53  77 /   0  50  30  60
Tijeras.........................  56  82  54  80 /   0  50  30  60
Edgewood........................  52  80  51  79 /   0  50  30  60
Moriarty/Estancia...............  51  80  49  80 /   0  50  30  70
Clines Corners..................  51  73  50  73 /   5  50  40  70
Mountainair.....................  53  81  51  78 /   0  50  40  70
Gran Quivira....................  53  81  52  78 /   0  40  50  80
Carrizozo.......................  59  88  58  83 /   0  40  40  80
Ruidoso.........................  52  77  53  71 /   0  40  40  90
Capulin.........................  49  70  48  74 /  50  80  30  20
Raton...........................  49  75  48  80 /  30  80  20  30
Springer........................  51  75  49  79 /  30  80  20  40
Las Vegas.......................  49  71  49  73 /  10  70  30  70
Clayton.........................  55  77  55  81 /  40  40  20  10
Roy.............................  53  73  52  76 /  30  70  30  30
Conchas.........................  59  80  58  82 /  30  50  40  40
Santa Rosa......................  57  77  56  79 /  20  50  40  60
Tucumcari.......................  57  77  56  80 /  30  40  50  40
Clovis..........................  59  77  59  81 /  30  40  60  50
Portales........................  59  80  58  81 /  30  40  60  50
Fort Sumner.....................  60  81  58  83 /  30  50  60  60
Roswell.........................  64  86  64  85 /  20  30  50  70
Picacho.........................  59  81  57  81 /   5  50  40  90
Elk.............................  54  82  55  80 /   0  40  30  90

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch from Monday afternoon through Monday evening for
NMZ214-215-229.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...34
LONG TERM....34
AVIATION...52