Raton, New Mexico 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

216
FXUS65 KABQ 021148 AAA
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
548 AM MDT Wed Apr 2 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 537 AM MDT Wed Apr 2 2025

- Elevated risk of fire spread in eastern New Mexico today and
  again tomorrow due to very dry conditions and breezy southwest
  winds. Light rain and snow showers will favor western New
  Mexico both days, with minor accumulations in the high terrain.

- Increased chances for lower elevation rain/snow and potentially
  significant mountain snow Friday through the weekend. Minor to
  moderate travel impacts likely in northern and eastern areas.
  Confidence is high for widespread wetting precipitation.

- Cold, with near record low max temperatures for eastern New
  Mexico on Saturday. Temperatures throughout the state will be 15
  to 35 degrees below normal.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 223 AM MDT Wed Apr 2 2025

Today will be much cooler than yesterday around the region with
rain/snow showers in western NM and dry conditions elsewhere. A few
inches of snow may accumulate in the mountains, but impacts from
snow will be minor at most. Widespread precipitation is expected
Friday through Saturday night, with the highest storm total amounts
in the eastern plains where rain will transition over to snow
Saturday. The heaviest snow accumulations will focus over the
northern mountains and adjacent highlands. Drier weather returns
Sunday as temperatures rapidly warm-up.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 223 AM MDT Wed Apr 2 2025

The strong Pacific cold front that surged thru NM on Tuesday has
shifted east into TX early this morning. Blowing dust has finally
exited eastern NM with visibilities improving in all areas as of
230am. Much colder air has moved into northern and western NM with
widespread teens and 20s in store for sunrise. Meanwhile, the latest
water vapor imagery shows a strong upper level jet stretching from
southern AZ into central NM this morning. The GOES derived motion
winds captured 150kt above Socorro. This jet axis will gradually
shift east into the Permian Basin and allow one more day of strong
west/southwest winds over southeast NM. Gusts of 35 to 45 mph will
be common from eastern Socorro County across the Sacramento Mts into
southern Chaves and Roosevelt counties. There is a 20-40% chance
that wind gusts may exceed 50 mph across southwest Chaves County so
trends will be monitored for a Wind Advisory today. The focus will
shift to rain and snow showers across northern and western NM this
afternoon as the next upper level shortwave trough approaches the
Four Corners from northern AZ. PWATs are projected to increase to
between 0.20 and 0.30" while modest CAPE near 200 J/kg coincides
with increasing ascent ahead of the upper wave. Most cells will
produce less than 0.10" liquid however the low level airmass will
still be dry enough to support gusty and erratic winds with DCAPE
near 500 J/kg. Shower coverage will decrease in the lower terrain
after sunset but the focus will shift to light snow on southwest-
facing slopes of the northwest high terrain tonight. A couple inches
are possible above Chama and in the Chuska Mts. The NBM snowfall
probability for >1" is >50% in these areas but only 20-40% for more
than 2". Min temps will be cold again with widespread teens and 20s
across the north and west. This may lead to some localized travel
impacts across the higher terrain where snowfall does occur. More
freezing low temps are also likely in the Rio Grande Valley and
parts of eastern NM so be mindful of protecting sensitive plants.

Thursday will be a near repeat of today as yet another upper level
shortwave trough approaches from AZ. Max temps will be 10-15F below
normal and more rain/snow showers are likely across northern and
western NM (40-60% chance). Precip amounts are likely to be less
than 0.10" again from most showers with gusty and erratic winds
likely. Another inch of snow is possible in the higher terrain of
the Chuska and Tusas Mts. Slightly stronger southwest breezes are
expected for central and eastern NM as winds aloft increase ahead of
the shortwave trough approaching from the west. Very low humidity
with these winds will lead to elevated fire danger again across the
eastern plains.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 223 AM MDT Wed Apr 2 2025

The broad upper-level trough will continue digging southward on
Thursday. Diffluence aloft over the Four Corners region will help to
generate some light precipitation, but afternoon sfc heating will
actually be the main driver of precipitation. With the center of the
H5 Low in southern AZ, sfc winds in eastern NM will turn around to
the east and push a slug of Gulf moisture into the eastern half of
the state. Here, there will be another batch of precipitation, with
the heaviest rain focusing along the leading edge of the receding
dryline. It`s not clear if it will be unstable enough for moderate
to heavy rainfall rates given the cloud cover so precipitation
amounts will likely trend up or down depending on how the mesoscale
conditions pan out. Isolated thunder has been added to the forecast,
but confidence is higher in western New Mexico on Friday afternoon.
Showers decrease in coverage Friday night, but trend higher again on
Saturday as a backdoor front ushers in a colder airmass from the
northeast. The strength of this front will be dependent on the
location of the parent trough over the Northern Plains. Around 90%
of ensembles keep this parent trough over the Dakotas, but around
10% bring it further south into WY/CO. This deeper (and less likely
solution) would result in a colder and more powerful backdoor front
and therefore heavier and more widespread snow on Saturday.
Northerly 700mb winds of 30 to 40KT in the wake of this cold front
won`t just bring cold air advection with it, but it will also create
blowing snow, with the highest confidence in the northeast plains
and at Raton Pass. Given the strength of this front, impacts may
extend much further south. Probabilistic guidance is starting to
pick up on this and 90th percentile snow accumulations from the NBM
are now showing 3-6" along the I-40 corridor from Tijeras Canyon all
the way to the TX border. While gusty east winds are still likely in
east Albuquerque as the aformentioned front pushes through the gaps
of the central mountain chain Saturday, the timing and placement of
the H5 low (nearly overhead) isn`t ideal for a high-end gap wind
event. A brief transition to snow cannot be ruled out in the
Albuquerque metro, but accumulating snowfall is unlikely (<10%
chance) given the warm sfc temps and timing of the highest precip.
chances.

Rain and snow chances quickly trend down Saturday night as the
straggling trough finally ejects off to the east. Since it`s Spring,
moist, potentially unstable northwest flow could help a few
additional snow showers continue over the terrain on Sunday, but
confidence is high that rising heights and increasing subsidence
will usher in drier weather by Monday. The snow melt will be fast
early to mid-next week as temps surge above seasonal averages. A
broad ridge will develop over the desert southwest mid next week,
keeping the dry and warm weather around through the end of the
workweek.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 537 AM MDT Wed Apr 2 2025

A 150kt jet stream over NM this morning will shift gradually east
today while the next upper level trough approaches from AZ. Strong
west to southwest winds will linger across southeast NM today with
gusts of 30-40KT common from near Socorro to Ruidoso and Roswell
after 11am. Meanwhile, SHRA/SN will develop over far northern and
western NM around noon then move quickly northeast across the Four
Corners thru tonight. This activity will be capable of strong and
erratic downburst winds with brief cig/vsby reductions. MVFR cigs
are then likely to develop across northwest NM after sunset with
light snow and mt obscurations focusing over the northwest high
terrain overnight.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 223 AM MDT Wed Apr 2 2025

Dry and breezy southwest winds today and Thursday will create a few
hours of marginal critical fire weather across the lower Rio Grande
Valley and parts of eastern NM. Cooler temperatures and much higher
humidity over northern and western NM will give way to increasing
chances for rain and snow showers thru Thursday. Wetting rainfall
(>0.10") is possible near the Four Corners and surrounding higher
terrain during this period. Strong, erratic wind gusts are possible
from any of this activity. A couple inches of snow are possible in
the higher terrain around Chama and the Chuska Mts.

A stronger, colder storm system will attempt to slide over the
region Friday and Saturday with greater chances for widespread rain
and snow. A backdoor cold front entering eastern NM will help focus
the greater precip amounts along and east of the central mt chain.
Total liquid amounts may average 0.25-0.75" over eastern NM with
spottier amounts between 0.10" and 0.25" across central and western
NM. Snow levels are likely to hover near 6,500` Friday then fall to
near 5,500` thru Saturday. Temps may be cold enough over eastern NM
for snow as low as 4,500`. A strong ridge of high pressure may then
build over the region next week with much warmer temperatures, low
humidity, and relatively light winds.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  50  29  49  30 /  20  60  60   0
Dulce...........................  47  18  45  16 /   5  60  60   0
Cuba............................  45  20  46  23 /  20  50  30   5
Gallup..........................  47  18  47  19 /  50  40  30  10
El Morro........................  45  20  44  24 /  50  30  20  10
Grants..........................  48  17  48  19 /  40  30  10   5
Quemado.........................  47  19  45  24 /  40  10  10   5
Magdalena.......................  51  24  52  29 /  20   5   5  10
Datil...........................  47  20  47  26 /  30  10   5   5
Reserve.........................  51  18  54  21 /  20  10  10   5
Glenwood........................  56  25  58  26 /  10  10   5   5
Chama...........................  40  17  39  16 /  10  60  60   0
Los Alamos......................  48  26  46  30 /  10  30  10   5
Pecos...........................  47  24  47  28 /  10  20  10  10
Cerro/Questa....................  43  22  44  24 /   5  20  20   5
Red River.......................  37  15  37  17 /   5  20  30   5
Angel Fire......................  40  16  41  16 /   5  10  20  10
Taos............................  47  20  47  19 /   0  20  10   5
Mora............................  47  20  48  22 /   0  10  10  10
Espanola........................  53  25  53  25 /   0  20   5   5
Santa Fe........................  48  24  47  30 /  10  20  10  10
Santa Fe Airport................  52  26  51  28 /  10  20   5  10
Albuquerque Foothills...........  52  31  54  37 /  20  20  10  10
Albuquerque Heights.............  54  32  56  33 /  20  20   5  10
Albuquerque Valley..............  56  30  58  32 /  20  10   5   5
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  54  31  56  34 /  20  20   5   5
Belen...........................  58  28  59  28 /  20  10   0  10
Bernalillo......................  55  30  57  32 /  10  20   5  10
Bosque Farms....................  57  28  58  28 /  20  10   0   5
Corrales........................  55  31  57  32 /  20  20   5   5
Los Lunas.......................  57  29  58  29 /  20  10   0   5
Placitas........................  52  29  53  34 /  20  20   5  10
Rio Rancho......................  54  30  56  33 /  20  20   5   5
Socorro.........................  62  30  61  33 /  10   5   0  10
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  49  25  48  30 /  30  20  10  10
Tijeras.........................  52  25  50  31 /  30  20  10  10
Edgewood........................  53  22  51  25 /  20  20   5  10
Moriarty/Estancia...............  53  20  53  20 /  20  10   5  10
Clines Corners..................  49  23  50  27 /  10  10   5  20
Mountainair.....................  52  24  52  27 /  20  10   5  20
Gran Quivira....................  53  25  52  28 /  20   5   0  30
Carrizozo.......................  56  32  56  35 /  20   5   5  40
Ruidoso.........................  49  30  50  33 /  20  10   5  50
Capulin.........................  50  24  51  25 /   0   5  10  10
Raton...........................  54  24  54  24 /   0   5  10   5
Springer........................  55  24  56  25 /   0   5   5   5
Las Vegas.......................  51  24  51  26 /   0  10   5  10
Clayton.........................  59  32  61  33 /   0   0   5  20
Roy.............................  55  28  56  30 /   0   5   5  10
Conchas.........................  62  33  64  36 /   0   5   5  30
Santa Rosa......................  59  31  61  35 /   0   5   0  30
Tucumcari.......................  63  34  65  37 /   0   5   5  50
Clovis..........................  63  38  65  39 /   0  20   5  80
Portales........................  64  39  66  39 /   0  30   5  80
Fort Sumner.....................  62  33  66  38 /   0   5   0  50
Roswell.........................  69  39  70  44 /   5  10   5  60
Picacho.........................  61  33  62  36 /   5   5   5  50
Elk.............................  59  32  60  34 /   5   5   5  50

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...42
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...42

Please note: The SYNOPSIS section will be terminated on or about Friday, April 4.