Raton, New Mexico 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

386
FXUS65 KABQ 112316 AAA
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
516 PM MDT Wed Jun 11 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 450 PM MDT Wed Jun 11 2025

- Minor risk of burn scar flash flooding early this evening and
  Thursday afternoon.

- Scattered showers and storms today and Thursday may produce
  gusty outflow winds and brief heavy rain along and east of the
  central mountain chain.

- Some gusty and dry thunderstorms will be in the mix west of the
  central mountain chain this evening, then over central and
  western areas Thursday, and along the east slopes of the Sangre
  de Cristo and Sacramento Mountains Friday.

- Moderate heat risk is expected in most low elevation areas by
  the weekend as temperatures warm to the hottest levels so far
  this season. Major heat risk is possible for the southeast
  plains and the lower Rio Grande Valley.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 223 PM MDT Wed Jun 11 2025

Scattered to isolated showers and thunderstorms will continue
through the evening along and east of the continental divide,
while remaining west of a line from Clayton to Dunken. Scattered
to isolated showers and thunderstorms will return again Thursday
afternoon east of the continental divide, and these will reach
farther east onto the eastern plains during the evening. Our
summer time ridge of high pressure will begin building over
northwest Mexico Thursday and Friday, steering drier air over the
forecast area from the southwest and west. By Friday afternoon,
any spotty thunderstorms will probably favor the east slopes of
the Sangre de Cristo and Sacramento Mountains. The drier air
moving in will result in some gusty virga showers and dry
thunderstorms in the mix mainly over central and western areas
this evening and Thursday, then along the east slopes of the
Sangres and Sacs on Friday as well. The building ridge of high
pressure will also send temperatures on an upward trend with
highs reaching near to around 6 degrees above 30-year averages by
Friday afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 223 PM MDT Wed Jun 11 2025

The ridge of high pressure will build northward over NM this
weekend and into early next week peaking around 595 DAM at 500 mb.
This will set the forecast area up for our first heatwave of the
season with a high temperature likely to reach 100 F in
Albuquerque, and as much as 105 F in Glenwood and Socorro, Sunday
and Monday. Models agree on an upper level trough moving into the
western US as the work week progresses weakening the high pressure
system and shifting it southward, but they are not in good
agreement on how quickly the upper trough will move in or how far
south it will track. If the slower models are right, the system
may draw in enough moist low level inflow for some gusty virga
showers and isolated dry thunderstorms to begin developing under
the ridge axis perhaps as early as Sunday, but more likely Monday.
The faster models bring in too much dry air for much in the way of
virga or dry storms, or even clouds to develop. By Tuesday,
though, temperatures should be trending downward as the low level
moisture moves in a little more effectively. The upper trough
moving through the region will probably work with this moisture to
produce some gusty virga showers and a mix of wet and dry
thunderstorms both Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 450 PM MDT Wed Jun 11 2025

VFR conditions prevail and are forecast to persist through the TAF
period. Current round of convection will gradually diminish
through the evening hours, but may impact KGUP, KSAF and KABQ/KAEG
with gusty/erratic winds prior to sunset. Another crop of storms is
forecast Thursday afternoon, with low probabilities for impacts
and most likely at KLVS and KROW. Outside of gusty/erratic winds
from convection, winds will be mostly light.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 223 PM MDT Wed Jun 11 2025

Humidities will trend downward and temperatures upward through
early next week with a mix of virga showers and gusty dry
thunderstorms in the forecast over central and western areas this
evening, then again Thursday afternoon evening. Cells farther east
will be more likely to produce wetting precip. The dry air will
take a firm hold on the forecast area at the end of the week, but
there will probably still be enough moisture for some gusty and
mainly dry thunderstorms along the east slopes of the Sangres and
Sacs Friday afternoon. Models vary on the timing and amount of low
level moisture with a low level return flow that will develop
under our building summertime ridge of high pressure early next
week. The potential exists for gusty and dry thunderstorms to
return as early as Sunday and Monday in some areas, then more
likely Tuesday and Wednesday as the ridge of high pressure aloft
begins to break down in response to an approaching upper level
trough.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  58  92  57  91 /   5   0   0   0
Dulce...........................  45  87  44  87 /  20  10   0   0
Cuba............................  53  87  53  87 /  10   5   0   0
Gallup..........................  49  89  49  89 /  10   0   0   0
El Morro........................  52  84  52  85 /  20   0   0   0
Grants..........................  51  89  51  90 /  20   5   0   0
Quemado.........................  55  87  54  88 /  20   0   0   0
Magdalena.......................  60  89  60  90 /  20  20  10   5
Datil...........................  56  87  56  87 /  30  20   5   5
Reserve.........................  49  94  49  95 /  20   0   0   0
Glenwood........................  56  98  55  98 /  10   0   0   0
Chama...........................  46  80  46  82 /  10  20   0   0
Los Alamos......................  58  82  58  85 /  10  20  10   0
Pecos...........................  54  84  55  85 /  20  30  10   5
Cerro/Questa....................  51  82  50  84 /  10  40  10   5
Red River.......................  43  72  43  74 /  20  50  20  10
Angel Fire......................  38  76  38  79 /  20  40  10  10
Taos............................  47  84  46  87 /  10  20  10   5
Mora............................  48  82  49  84 /  20  40  10  10
Espanola........................  55  90  55  92 /  10  20  10   0
Santa Fe........................  57  85  58  87 /  10  20  10   0
Santa Fe Airport................  56  88  56  90 /  10  20  10   0
Albuquerque Foothills...........  65  93  65  94 /  20  10   5   0
Albuquerque Heights.............  62  95  62  95 /  20  10   5   0
Albuquerque Valley..............  61  97  60  97 /  20  10   5   0
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  63  95  63  96 /  20  10   5   0
Belen...........................  59  96  59  97 /  20  10   5   0
Bernalillo......................  61  96  61  97 /  20  10   5   0
Bosque Farms....................  58  96  57  97 /  20  10   5   0
Corrales........................  62  97  62  97 /  20  10   5   0
Los Lunas.......................  60  96  59  97 /  20  10   5   0
Placitas........................  62  91  62  92 /  20  10   5   0
Rio Rancho......................  62  95  62  96 /  20  10   5   0
Socorro.........................  65  99  65 100 /  20  10  10   0
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  57  87  57  88 /  20  10   5   0
Tijeras.........................  58  89  58  89 /  20  10   5   0
Edgewood........................  53  88  54  89 /  20  10   5   0
Moriarty/Estancia...............  49  89  50  90 /  20  10  10   0
Clines Corners..................  53  84  53  86 /  20  20  10   5
Mountainair.....................  54  89  55  90 /  20  10  10   0
Gran Quivira....................  53  88  55  89 /  20  10  20   5
Carrizozo.......................  60  92  62  94 /  20  20  20   5
Ruidoso.........................  56  84  59  87 /  20  40  20  20
Capulin.........................  51  81  51  82 /  20  30  40  20
Raton...........................  50  86  50  87 /  30  30  20  10
Springer........................  50  86  50  89 /  20  30  10  10
Las Vegas.......................  51  84  51  87 /  20  30  10   5
Clayton.........................  57  87  58  89 /  10  10  20  10
Roy.............................  53  84  54  87 /  20  20  10  10
Conchas.........................  60  92  60  95 /  10  20  10   5
Santa Rosa......................  58  89  58  92 /  20  20  10   5
Tucumcari.......................  59  90  60  93 /   5   5  10   5
Clovis..........................  60  90  62  93 /   5   5  20   5
Portales........................  59  91  62  94 /   5   5  20   5
Fort Sumner.....................  60  93  60  96 /  10  10  20   5
Roswell.........................  66  98  67 100 /   5  10  10   5
Picacho.........................  58  92  60  94 /  10  30  20  10
Elk.............................  56  91  57  93 /  10  30  10  20

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...44
LONG TERM....44
AVIATION...11