Portales, New Mexico 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

752
FXUS65 KABQ 142030
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
230 PM MDT Thu Aug 14 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 225 PM MDT Thu Aug 14 2025

- Minor risk of flash flooding below recent burn scars today, then
  the risk will become moderate Friday, high this weekend, and
  remain moderate to high through the first half of the coming
  work week.

- The coverage of showers and thunderstorms will begin to increase
  over central and western areas today and tomorrow as monsoon
  moisture begins to increase along the Arizona and New Mexico
  border. Rich monsoon moisture will then spread to more of the
  forecast area and remain in place through the first half of the
  coming week. There will also be a risk of isolated flash
  flooding outside of burn scars Friday through Wednesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 222 PM MDT Thu Aug 14 2025

The monsoon high is currently centered over northeast New Mexico and
will continue to shift eastward towards the Great Plains over the
next couple of days. Eventually, this high pressure system looks to
merge with another high over the southeast United States, forming a
sharp ridge over the Mississippi River Valley by the middle of the
weekend. Meanwhile out west, a trough will be digging into the Great
Basin and western Arizona. New Mexico will find itself in between
both of these synoptic forces, resulting in a moist corridor of
southerly flow to form along the western part of the state. Moisture
is already increasing throughout the state, leading to isolated and
scattered thunderstorms over the high terrain, particularly in
southwestern areas this afternoon. The monsoonal plume will continue
stream up the New Mexico bootheel on Friday, increasing PWATS back
to normal and above normal throughout much of the state. The deeper
moisture looks to remain further south near the international
border, but moist upslope flow and diffluence aloft will create
scattered to numerous thunderstorms over the Gila Mountains. A
similar setup over the Sacramento Mountains is increasing the
concern of burn scar flash flooding for the Ruidoso area. Most
guidance is showing a pretty typical monsoon afternoon, without much
"jumping out" to indicate a heavy precipitation event. Have opted to
forgo a flood watch with this forecast package, but the possibility
of slow moving and backbuilding thunderstorms may create locally
heavy rainfall amounts of half an inch to an inch in southern
areas.

Another X factor that will muddy the waters for tomorrow`s forecast
is an upper level disturbance moving north from Mexico. The GFS and
the NAM in particular both show a potential MCV moving through the
bootheel and into central New Mexico by the evening hours. Mesoscale
forcing from this disturbance may serve to invigorate rainfall along
the Gila, the Sacramento Mountains, and areas in between. However,
as observed several times this season, MCVs may in fact create too
much cloud cover and stability for heavy and flooding rainfall to
occur. Given the uncertain timing and strength of this feature, the
most likely scenario is for there to be increased shower coverage
along southern New Mexico but less confidence for heavy rainfall. As
captured by the NBM, higher chances for precipitation may continue
into the evening hours over central and western New Mexico as this
disturbance continues tracking north.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 222 PM MDT Thu Aug 14 2025

Going into the weekend, the monsoon plume will continue to spread
across New Mexico from southwest to northeast. Ensembles are showing
PWATs climbing to the 1 to 1.4 inch range, up to 130% of normal for
this time of year. A tropical disturbance in the Gulf looks to push
up through south Texas early this weekend. Moisture from this system
may blend with the mostly Pacific monsoonal plume over Mexico, but
any sensible effects from this storm seem unlikely for New Mexico.
Scattered showers and storms will form over the high terrain in
southern New Mexico once again early in the afternoon on Saturday. A
passing shortwave trough over the central Rockies may aid in the
development of convection over the northern half of the central
mountain chain. However, some solutions are showing stronger and
drier westerly flow behind the shortwave could hinder shower
development, particularly for central New Mexico. Stronger westerly
flow will also serve to create quicker storm motions, reducing the
risk of localized heavy rainfall over sensitive burn scars.

For the beginning of next week, the monsoon high will begin to
reestablish itself over southern Colorado near the Four Corners.
Above average monsoon moisture will continue to be recycled over the
Desert Southwest each day through Wednesday, with typical monsoonal
thunderstorms forming over the high terrain during the afternoons.
Moderate to high risk of burn scar flash flooding will be likely during
these afternoons. For the latter half of the week, the high
pressure center looks to shift more west, and a drier northeast
flow begins to intrude into eastern New Mexico, lowering chances
for storms and burn scar flash flooding.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 222 PM MDT Thu Aug 14 2025

Scattered thunderstorm coverage is underway in southwestern New
Mexico this afternoon, mainly over the Gila mountains. Chances
showers decrease further north, but KGUP and KFMN may see some gusty
and erratic virga showers in their vicinity. KLVS may also get a
quick shower from storms forming off of the mountains late this
afternoon. Overall, most sites will see some breezy southwesterly
flow this afternoon, with scattered to broken mid and upper level
cloud cover through the evening.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 222 PM MDT Thu Aug 14 2025

Northwestern New Mexico will continue to be much drier than the rest
of the state throughout the period. Some deeper monsoon moisture may
reach as far north as Farmington on Friday afternoon, their best
chance for wetting rain this week. Most of New Mexico will see a
steady increase in moisture and thunderstorm coverage, leading to
minimal fire weather concerns through the middle of next week.
However, for the Four Corners area, dry thunderstorms with gusty and
erratic winds will be possible over the next few days, elevating the
fire threat. Above average moisture looks to remain in place
over the Land of Enchantment through at least Wednesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  66  88  63  89 /  20  30  30  10
Dulce...........................  48  88  49  86 /  20  50  50  40
Cuba............................  55  85  55  84 /  30  60  60  40
Gallup..........................  54  83  51  84 /  40  70  40  40
El Morro........................  54  81  54  80 /  50  80  60  60
Grants..........................  55  85  54  83 /  40  80  50  60
Quemado.........................  56  81  56  79 /  40  80  60  80
Magdalena.......................  62  84  61  80 /  20  70  60  70
Datil...........................  55  80  56  77 /  30  80  50  80
Reserve.........................  54  88  54  84 /  40  80  50  80
Glenwood........................  58  91  58  88 /  40  80  50  80
Chama...........................  49  82  47  80 /  20  60  50  60
Los Alamos......................  62  85  60  81 /  10  70  50  60
Pecos...........................  59  84  57  81 /  10  60  40  50
Cerro/Questa....................  56  84  55  81 /  20  50  30  60
Red River.......................  47  75  47  72 /  10  50  30  60
Angel Fire......................  41  76  42  75 /  10  50  20  60
Taos............................  53  86  53  83 /  10  40  30  50
Mora............................  52  80  52  78 /  20  50  30  60
Espanola........................  60  93  60  90 /  20  50  40  40
Santa Fe........................  63  85  62  83 /  20  50  50  50
Santa Fe Airport................  60  88  60  86 /  10  40  50  40
Albuquerque Foothills...........  70  91  68  88 /  20  60  60  50
Albuquerque Heights.............  67  93  66  90 /  20  40  50  30
Albuquerque Valley..............  66  95  66  91 /  20  40  50  30
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  67  93  67  90 /  20  40  60  30
Belen...........................  63  94  64  90 /  10  40  50  30
Bernalillo......................  66  94  65  91 /  20  40  50  40
Bosque Farms....................  62  94  63  90 /  10  40  50  30
Corrales........................  67  95  66  91 /  20  50  60  40
Los Lunas.......................  64  94  65  90 /  10  40  50  30
Placitas........................  65  90  64  87 /  10  50  50  40
Rio Rancho......................  67  93  66  90 /  20  40  60  30
Socorro.........................  66  95  67  90 /  10  40  50  50
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  62  85  59  83 /  10  50  50  50
Tijeras.........................  62  86  61  83 /  10  50  50  50
Edgewood........................  57  87  57  83 /  10  50  40  40
Moriarty/Estancia...............  55  88  55  84 /  10  40  40  40
Clines Corners..................  60  82  58  78 /  10  40  30  40
Mountainair.....................  60  85  57  82 /  10  50  50  50
Gran Quivira....................  59  84  58  80 /   5  60  50  60
Carrizozo.......................  65  86  64  83 /  10  40  50  60
Ruidoso.........................  60  79  58  75 /  10  70  40  70
Capulin.........................  57  85  58  81 /  10  10   5  30
Raton...........................  55  88  56  84 /  10  20   5  40
Springer........................  55  90  57  87 /  10  20   5  30
Las Vegas.......................  56  84  56  81 /  10  40  20  50
Clayton.........................  65  93  66  89 /   5   5   0   5
Roy.............................  61  89  62  85 /  10  10   5  20
Conchas.........................  66  95  68  91 /   5  10  10  30
Santa Rosa......................  63  91  64  87 /   5  20  20  40
Tucumcari.......................  67  93  67  89 /   0   5   5  10
Clovis..........................  68  97  69  93 /   0   0   5  20
Portales........................  70  97  70  93 /   5   5   5  20
Fort Sumner.....................  67  95  69  90 /   0  10  10  20
Roswell.........................  71  99  72  94 /   0  10  20  30
Picacho.........................  64  91  64  86 /   5  30  30  50
Elk.............................  61  88  60  84 /   5  40  30  60

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...25
LONG TERM....25
AVIATION...25