Las Vegas, New Mexico 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

412
FXUS65 KABQ 101134 AAA
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
534 AM MDT Tue Jun 10 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 528 AM MDT Tue Jun 10 2025

- High risk of burn scar flash flooding today then a moderate risk
  on Wednesday, especially for the Ruidoso area. There is a low
  risk of urban flash flooding today.

- A few strong storms mainly south of U.S. Highway 60 may produce
  large hail and damaging wind gusts from early this afternoon
  into the evening.

- Temperatures will warm to the hottest values of the season so
  far late this week into early next week, creating moderate to
  major heat risk in most lower elevation locations.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 143 AM MDT Tue Jun 10 2025

Dry conditions prevail across the Land of Enchantment tonight, but
an upper-low is moving overhead as evidenced by the counter-
clockwise swirl in the mid and high level debris clouds from this
past afternoon`s convection. The center of the circulation will be
the focus of convective initiation today as it slides southeastward
into south-central NM. Unfortunately, this is very close to the
Ruidoso complex of burn scars which will likely be one of the very
first areas for storms to initiate in the late morning hours. Young
storms will be nearly stationary, with steering flow taking them off
to the south/southeast as they mature later in the afternoon. The
HREF mean is showing 0.25 to 0.5" over all burn scars, but there is
a realistic chance of 1"+ (as evidenced by probabilistic guidance),
especially if a mid-afternoon storms develops over the same area
that a storm develops in the late morning. Elsewhere, most storms
will initiate over the high terrain as well and slowly move
southeast into the lower elevations during the afternoon. Outflow
interactions could spark a storm in both the Albuquerque and Santa
Fe metros during the afternoon, potentially impacting the evening
commute. Shear is significantly lower than yesterday so large hail
will no longer be a threat, but DCAPE of 600-900J/kg suggest strong
outflow wind gusts will still be a concern. Modeled bulk shear has
trended lower over the southeast plains and so now its unlikely that
storms will be able to organize as they come off the mountains into
the plains.

Drier air intrudes from the west Wednesday, limiting the coverage of
storms west of the central mountain chain. Slow-moving storms will
favor the central mountain chain and adjacent highlands. Lower PWATs
and less instability indicate a lower threat of burn scar flash
flooding, however soils could be primed from rainfall today so flash
flooding concerns are still moderate over area burn scars. The
combination of rising heights and drier air intruding from the west
will bring highs up about 5 degrees from Tuesday`s highs areawide
and will mark the start of a warming trend that will continue into
the long-term.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 143 AM MDT Tue Jun 10 2025

Lingering showers and storms Wednesday night will dissipate after
midnight with remnant mid level cloud cover thru Thursday morning.
Upper level ridging will strengthen Thursday with drier air moving
farther east into central NM compared to recent days. Temps will
trend warmer with less coverage of showers and storms. Activity
that does form will favor the central mt chain then move slowly
south and east into nearby highlands with brief rain and gusty
winds. Friday will be even warmer with a few more slow-moving
storms possible along the central mt chain and nearby highlands.

A more well-defined 591dm H5 high over northern Sonora Friday will
build northward toward western NM and strengthen to near 597dm by
Monday. Much drier air entering the ridge from AZ will penetrate
farther east into more of NM over the weekend. The risk for heat-
related illnesses will increase with the hottest temps so far this
season. The latest NBM probs for max temps >99F exceed 80% in the
RGV south of ABQ over the weekend. Storm chances will be non-zero
but still very low and confined to favored high terrain areas in
the Sangre de Cristo Mts and perhaps far eastern NM.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 528 AM MDT Tue Jun 10 2025

Despite clearing high clouds and light winds, low clouds and fog
have not developed in eastern NM this morning. Storms will develop
over the high terrain around 17Z, moving into the lower elevations
during the afternoon hours. Gusty outflow winds could impact any
terminal, with the highest confidence at KLVS and KROW. Cloud
bases with storms will be higher than yesterday and the
ingredients for severe weather are not present so any visibility
reductions from showers and storms will be very brief. There is a
low chance that fog develops in the southeast plains after 06Z
tomorrow once storms have exited off to the south and east.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 143 AM MDT Tue Jun 10 2025

Scattered showers and storms will favor areas along and east of the
Continental Divide today, but there may be a few dry storms that
produce little to no rainfall in far western NM near the AZ border.
Storms will favor the central mountain chain and adjacent highlands
on Wednesday as overall storm coverage decreases. A warming and
drying trend will continue into Thursday and Friday as ridging
amplifies over the desert southwest. Hot temperatures Friday through
early next week will increase the risk of heat-related illness,
particularly in the lower elevations of central and western NM.
There is a low chance of daily rounds of afternoon storms in
eastern NM during this same time period, however confidence in more
than isolated coverage is low.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  89  57  92  57 /  10   5   0   0
Dulce...........................  81  46  85  44 /  40  10  20   5
Cuba............................  78  52  85  52 /  40  30  10   5
Gallup..........................  85  50  89  50 /  10  10   5   5
El Morro........................  79  51  84  52 /  30  20  20   5
Grants..........................  82  51  88  51 /  30  20  20   5
Quemado.........................  82  54  87  54 /  30  20  10  10
Magdalena.......................  81  56  85  59 /  60  20  40  20
Datil...........................  79  52  84  54 /  50  20  30  10
Reserve.........................  87  53  93  50 /  30  10  10   5
Glenwood........................  91  58  97  55 /  20  10  10   5
Chama...........................  73  46  78  45 /  40  10  30  10
Los Alamos......................  75  55  81  56 /  50  20  40   5
Pecos...........................  74  53  80  52 /  50  20  40  10
Cerro/Questa....................  74  50  80  49 /  50  10  40  10
Red River.......................  65  43  70  42 /  50  10  50  10
Angel Fire......................  69  41  75  38 /  50  10  40  10
Taos............................  78  47  82  47 /  40  10  30  10
Mora............................  73  49  79  47 /  60  20  50  10
Espanola........................  82  54  89  55 /  40  20  20   5
Santa Fe........................  77  55  82  55 /  50  20  30  10
Santa Fe Airport................  80  54  86  55 /  40  20  20  10
Albuquerque Foothills...........  84  61  91  63 /  30  20  20  10
Albuquerque Heights.............  86  61  92  62 /  30  20   5  10
Albuquerque Valley..............  88  60  94  60 /  30  20   5  10
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  86  60  92  62 /  20  20   5  10
Belen...........................  89  58  93  59 /  30  20  10  10
Bernalillo......................  87  58  93  60 /  30  20  10   5
Bosque Farms....................  88  57  93  58 /  30  20   5  10
Corrales........................  87  59  93  61 /  30  20   5  10
Los Lunas.......................  88  59  93  59 /  30  20   5  10
Placitas........................  83  59  89  61 /  30  20  10  10
Rio Rancho......................  86  59  93  62 /  30  20   5   5
Socorro.........................  90  61  95  64 /  50  20  20  10
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  78  54  84  55 /  30  20  20  10
Tijeras.........................  80  56  86  57 /  30  20  20  10
Edgewood........................  79  52  85  53 /  40  20  20  10
Moriarty/Estancia...............  81  50  86  49 /  40  20  20  10
Clines Corners..................  75  52  80  52 /  40  20  20  20
Mountainair.....................  79  53  85  54 /  40  30  20  20
Gran Quivira....................  79  52  85  54 /  50  30  20  20
Carrizozo.......................  81  58  87  60 /  60  30  30  20
Ruidoso.........................  71  53  80  56 /  70  30  40  10
Capulin.........................  76  50  79  50 /  20  10  30  10
Raton...........................  80  50  84  50 /  30  10  20   5
Springer........................  80  50  84  50 /  30  10  30  10
Las Vegas.......................  75  50  81  51 /  40  20  40  10
Clayton.........................  82  57  83  57 /  10  10   5   5
Roy.............................  77  55  81  54 /  30  10  20  10
Conchas.........................  82  60  87  60 /  30  20  10  10
Santa Rosa......................  80  58  84  58 /  50  20  20  20
Tucumcari.......................  81  59  85  59 /  30  20   5  10
Clovis..........................  79  60  83  60 /  60  30  10  20
Portales........................  80  59  84  60 /  70  40  10  10
Fort Sumner.....................  82  59  86  60 /  60  30  20  10
Roswell.........................  85  62  90  65 /  50  30  20  10
Picacho.........................  79  56  86  59 /  70  30  40  10
Elk.............................  78  55  86  56 /  80  30  40  10

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch from 11 AM MDT this morning through this evening for
NMZ214-215-226-229.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM....42
AVIATION...16