Las Vegas, New Mexico 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

911
FXUS65 KABQ 242320
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
520 PM MDT Fri Jul 24 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 516 PM MDT Fri Jul 24 2026

- Increasing risk of flash flooding from slow moving thunderstorms
  over portions of central and western NM through this weekend.

- Moderate to major heat risk will impact lower elevations of
  central and eastern New Mexico through the 7-day period with
  high temperatures in the upper 90s to low 100s.

- Daily rounds of afternoon thunderstorms threatening lightning,
  gusty winds, small hail, and localized heavy rainfall continues
  at varying coverages through the 7-day period.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 130 PM MDT Fri Jul 24 2026

The latest water vapor imagery and GOES satellite-derived winds
showed the monsoon high centered near Gallup today with a rich plume
of mid and upper level moisture stretching from west to east across
the northern half of NM. A large wedge of upper level dry air is
draped across southern NM ahead of an inverted trough moving west
across the Big Bend. Strong heating, rich moisture, and orographics
will continue to allow showers and storms to develop over the high
terrain today then move erratically into nearby lowlands on storm
outflows. 12Z models captured a shortwave upper level trough over
northeast NM rounding the H5 high center this morning. Several
models focus robust convection today along the central mt chain
and high plains of eastern NM as the shortwave moves southward
around the monsoon high. The updated SPC convective outlook today
shows a `Marginal Risk` area over eastern NM where bulk shear has
improved. The RRFS, HRRR, and NAM12 rotate a remnant MCV feature
southwest toward the ABQ metro this evening with showers likely to
persist well into the evening over central NM.

The focus for robust storms with heavy rainfall rates Saturday will
depend partly on where the remnant MCV is positioned in the morning.
There is moderate to high confidence that the wave will be near
Grants with a trajectory westward toward already saturated areas of
western NM. Hi-res ensemble LPMM QPF and NBM90th percentile shows a
few clusters with >1.5" over western NM, including the western parts
of Lincoln County. Given the recent heavy rain and saturated soils
across western NM and the burn scar flood risk, Flood Watches will
be issued for Saturday. WPC also shows a large `Slight Risk` of
excessive rainfall with a target area between Gallup, Grants, and
the Gila region. Storm motions will be slightly faster Saturday
and more toward the west and northwest compared to today.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 130 PM MDT Fri Jul 24 2026

By Sunday and Monday, the monsoon high will expand to near 598dm and
become centered more over northeast NM and west TX. This will drive
the main moisture plume west of the Cont Divide. Steering flow will
also become more southeast/northwest with less convection expected
over central and eastern NM. Max temps will also rise into the upper
90s and low 100s for parts of the RGV and eastern NM so additional
heat risk impacts are expected.

The rest of the week will be typical of late July with the monsoon
high center drifting west into the Four Corners region. Abundant
moisture beneath the high will allow for daily rounds of showers and
storms to develop over the high terrain then move erratically into
nearby lowlands thru the afternoon. Max temps will stay above normal
next week, especially for eastern NM.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 516 PM MDT Fri Jul 24 2026

Widespread storms will continue through the evening around the
region, with the highest coverage in and around the central
mountain chain. Storms will decrease in intensity after 03Z, with
mostly showery precipitation in central and west-central NM
overnight.

Another round of widespread showers and storms is expected
Saturday afternoon, with coverage favoring the western half of the
state. Storms will slowly move from east to west at 5 to 10 knots.
Gusty outflow winds up to 35 knots and small hail will possible
with any storms.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 130 PM MDT Fri Jul 24 2026

There are no critical fire weather concerns for at least the next
two weeks. While much of northern and western NM are moistening up,
patchy dry fuels may still lead to new fire starts from lightning
strikes. The greatest storm chances will focus over northern and
western NM, especially west of the Cont Divide. Storms will
develop on the high terrain then move erratically into nearby
lowlands on convective outflows. Small footprints with rainfall
amounts of 1-2" will occur with direct hits.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  68  98  68  97 /   5   5  30  20
Dulce...........................  54  95  54  94 /  20  50  20  60
Cuba............................  61  90  60  90 /  30  30  40  40
Gallup..........................  61  90  59  90 /  10  60  30  50
El Morro........................  61  86  58  86 /  10  70  40  70
Grants..........................  63  90  61  91 /  10  50  40  60
Quemado.........................  62  87  59  86 /  20  70  40  70
Magdalena.......................  67  89  66  89 /  30  40  40  50
Datil...........................  63  85  62  85 /  30  60  30  70
Reserve.........................  61  94  59  93 /  30  70  40  70
Glenwood........................  65  98  62  97 /  20  60  40  50
Chama...........................  53  86  54  86 /  20  60  20  70
Los Alamos......................  67  89  66  90 /  40  40  20  30
Pecos...........................  60  89  59  90 /  30  60  30  20
Cerro/Questa....................  59  87  60  88 /  20  50  10  40
Red River.......................  50  84  52  85 /  10  50  10  60
Angel Fire......................  48  83  50  85 /  20  50  20  50
Taos............................  57  91  58  91 /  20  40  10  30
Mora............................  57  86  57  89 /  20  50  10  30
Espanola........................  66  96  66  97 /  30  30  20  10
Santa Fe........................  66  90  66  90 /  30  50  20  10
Santa Fe Airport................  64  93  63  93 /  30  40  20  10
Albuquerque Foothills...........  71  96  70  97 /  40  40  50   5
Albuquerque Heights.............  68  97  68  98 /  40  30  50   5
Albuquerque Valley..............  68  99  67 100 /  30  30  50   5
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  71  98  70  98 /  30  30  40   5
Belen...........................  68  99  66  99 /  40  30  50   5
Bernalillo......................  69  98  69  99 /  30  30  30   5
Bosque Farms....................  66  98  65  98 /  40  30  50   5
Corrales........................  70  99  69 100 /  30  30  40   5
Los Lunas.......................  68  98  67  98 /  40  30  50   5
Placitas........................  69  94  69  95 /  40  40  30   5
Rio Rancho......................  70  98  69  98 /  30  30  40   5
Socorro.........................  73 101  72 101 /  30  20  40  10
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  64  91  64  91 /  40  50  40  10
Tijeras.........................  62  93  62  93 /  40  50  40  10
Edgewood........................  60  94  59  94 /  50  50  40  10
Moriarty/Estancia...............  58  94  57  94 /  50  60  40  10
Clines Corners..................  60  88  59  89 /  50  60  40  10
Mountainair.....................  60  93  60  93 /  50  50  50  10
Gran Quivira....................  63  91  62  91 /  40  40  40  10
Carrizozo.......................  69  93  68  94 /  30  40  30  20
Ruidoso.........................  64  86  63  86 /  20  50  20  50
Capulin.........................  58  90  60  92 /  20  10  10  20
Raton...........................  57  94  59  97 /  20  20  10  20
Springer........................  59  95  60  98 /  30  20  10  20
Las Vegas.......................  60  90  60  91 /  30  30  20  20
Clayton.........................  66  99  69 101 /  10   5   5   0
Roy.............................  63  92  65  94 /  30  10  10   5
Conchas.........................  68 100  69 102 /  30   5  20   0
Santa Rosa......................  66  94  66  97 /  50  10  20   0
Tucumcari.......................  70 101  71 102 /  30   5  20   0
Clovis..........................  69  98  69 100 /  50  10   5   0
Portales........................  70  99  70 101 /  50  10   5   0
Fort Sumner.....................  69  99  70 101 /  40  10  20   0
Roswell.........................  74 101  73 102 /  30   5   5   0
Picacho.........................  68  95  67  96 /  20  20   5  10
Elk.............................  66  93  64  94 /  10  20   5  30

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch from Saturday afternoon through Saturday evening for
NMZ202-204>206-208-209.

Flood Watch Saturday afternoon for NMZ226.

Heat Advisory until 8 PM MDT this evening for NMZ238.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...42
LONG TERM....42
AVIATION...16