Grants, New Mexico 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

092
FXUS65 KABQ 131109 AAA
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
509 AM MDT Fri Jun 13 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 505 AM MDT Fri Jun 13 2025

- Isolated thunderstorms could produce wind gusts up to 60 mph
  across far eastern New Mexico today and Sunday afternoon. Gusty
  virga showers and dry thunderstorms are also possible around
  the southern high terrain today, Saturday, and Sunday
  afternoons.

- Moderate heat risk is expected in most low elevation areas
  Saturday through Tuesday, with near record high temperatures.
  Major heat risk is possible for the southeast plains and the
  lower Rio Grande Valley.

- Temperatures will trend cooler with breezy west winds Tuesday,
  followed by a return to isolated gusty showers and dry storms
  along the central mountain chain on Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 254 AM MDT Fri Jun 13 2025

A 591dm H5 high center will build northward into southwest NM today.
A very dry airmass over AZ with dewpoints in the upper teens and 20s
will round the high into western and central NM. Deep mixing with
large inverted-V profiles and just enough mid level moisture will
allow a few high-based showers to develop over the southern high
terrain and eastern plains. DCAPE values of 1000-1500 J/kg may lead
to wind gusts over 50kt from the stronger cells. Deterministic model
runs indicate sufficient shear along the NM/TX border for a few
storms to support hail as well. The latest SPC convective outlook
still shows a `Marginal Risk` for severe storms in that area.
Otherwise, it will be hotter today with even lower humidity than
yesterday. Mid level clouds this evening will dissipate overnight
with comfortable low temperatures.

Saturday will feature even drier air filtering into western and
central NM as the H5 ridge builds to near 594dm over south-central
NM. This ridge is at the climatological average maximum observed for
mid June. High temps as a result will soar to the hottest readings
so far this season. Many areas from the ABQ metro southward and
Chaves County will be close to Heat Advisory criteria. Confidence is
not high enough on areal coverage to raise headlines at this time
for these zones (more likely Sunday). A few more high-based showers
are possible around the southern high terrain and southeast plains
but most areas will only see struggling cumulus. SPC continues to
advertise a `Marginal Risk` for severe storms over extreme eastern
NM Saturday but recent trends suggest otherwise

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 254 AM MDT Fri Jun 13 2025

Summer is coming. An upper level ridge will center itself over New
Mexico on Sunday and Monday, leading to widespread temperatures in
the upper 90s and even 100s. 500mb heights look to climb into the
594 to 596 dm range, above the 90th percentile for this time of year
according to local sounding climatology. As a result, not only will
temperatures soar to about 10 degrees above average, but some
locations such as Albuquerque may even break record high
temperatures. Heat advisories will likely be necessary for the lower
and middle Rio Grande Valley where there is high confidence of
temperatures hovering near or above 100F. If ABQ reaches 100 on
Sunday it would tie a record stretching back to 1939. The eastern
plains may be even hotter, with areas south of the I-40 forecast to
break 100F each day through Tuesday. Sensitive populations should
limit time outdoors, particularly along Pecos River Valley including
Roswell, where there is about a 40% chance of temperatures
surpassing 105F each afternoon. Tuesday may end up being the hottest
day for the east plains as stronger southwesterly flow and
downsloping winds may help further warm the environment. Ensembles
are currently showing about a 35% chance of Roswell reaching
Excessive Heat Warning criteria (110 degrees), posing a major
HeatRisk (level 3 out of 4) for the majority of Chaves county.

Aside from the heat, some mid and upper level moisture may lead to
to some scattered cloud cover and isolated virga showers. Some
isolated dry thunderstorms may also develop along and east of the
central mountain chain on Sunday. Models are also hinting at some
wetting precipitation and thunderstorms developing over the
Sacramento Mountains, but with below average PWATs and drier
conditions in the lower levels, the threat to the Ruidoso area burn
scars will be low and accumulations should only amount to a few
hundredths. On Tuesday, an upper level trough will clip New Mexico
and usher in some stronger and drier westerly winds. Daytime heating
during the afternoon should be able to mix down some of the stronger
flow aloft, leading to some breezy 15 to 20 kt winds throughout the
region. As the trough exits east, a backdoor cold front will push
through northeastern New Mexico on Wednesday, replenishing moisture
along the east plains and cooling temperatures back to near normal.
For the end of the week, another upper level ridge looks to start
building once again, while virga showers and dry thunderstorms will
possible along and east of the central mountain chain during the
afternoons.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 505 AM MDT Fri Jun 13 2025

Drier and hotter weather will develop over the region today. A few
SHRA/TS are still expected to form over the high plains of eastern
NM and the southern high terrain by 1pm. This activity will move
slowly east/southeast with brief rain and downburst wind gusts in
excess of 40KT possible. Precip will give way to decreasing mid
level cloud cover overnight with light winds.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 254 AM MDT Fri Jun 13 2025

A strong ridge of high pressure will build northward into NM over
the weekend with intense heat and very dry conditions for the vast
majority of the area. Near record high temps are expected Sunday.
Sufficient low level moisture will remain in place across far
eastern NM for a few gusty showers and storms each afternoon thru
Sunday.

Southwest winds will begin increasing over western NM by Monday
afternoon as the upper level ridge breaks down into northern MX.
Intense heat will still plague much of the region with min humidity
values below 10% for central and western NM. A few areas of elevated
critical fire weather are possible along the NM/AZ border. Stronger
west winds are likely Tuesday as an upper level trough crosses the
southern Rockies. Much greater coverage of elevated to critical fire
weather is likely, along with hot temps, and single digit humidity.
A Fire Weather Watch may be warranted for parts of the area Tuesday.
Any dry lightning strikes that occurred over recent days may become
new starts in areas of central and western NM where ERC values are
lowest. The upper ridge will then build north over the region again
by Wednesday with lighter winds.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  92  56  94  57 /   0   0   0   0
Dulce...........................  86  45  89  44 /   0   0   0   0
Cuba............................  87  54  89  55 /   0   0   0   0
Gallup..........................  89  47  92  46 /   0   0   0   0
El Morro........................  86  51  88  53 /   0   0   0   0
Grants..........................  90  50  93  50 /   0   0   0   0
Quemado.........................  89  53  91  55 /   5   0   0   0
Magdalena.......................  90  60  92  62 /  10   5   5   0
Datil...........................  87  54  90  56 /  10   5   5   0
Reserve.........................  94  49  97  52 /   5   0   0   0
Glenwood........................  97  54 101  57 /   0   0   0   0
Chama...........................  80  47  84  48 /   0   0   0   0
Los Alamos......................  84  60  89  60 /   0   0   0   0
Pecos...........................  86  55  88  59 /   5   0   0   0
Cerro/Questa....................  83  52  87  53 /   0   0   0   0
Red River.......................  75  45  79  45 /   5   0   5   0
Angel Fire......................  78  38  81  38 /   5   0   0   0
Taos............................  86  48  90  48 /   0   0   0   0
Mora............................  83  50  86  53 /   5   0   5   0
Espanola........................  92  56  96  56 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Fe........................  87  59  90  61 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Fe Airport................  91  56  94  58 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Foothills...........  93  67  97  68 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Heights.............  95  64  98  65 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Valley..............  97  63 100  63 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  96  64  98  65 /   0   0   0   0
Belen...........................  97  61 100  60 /   0   0   0   0
Bernalillo......................  96  62  99  63 /   0   0   0   0
Bosque Farms....................  96  59  99  60 /   0   0   0   0
Corrales........................  97  63  99  64 /   0   0   0   0
Los Lunas.......................  96  61  99  61 /   0   0   0   0
Placitas........................  92  64  95  66 /   0   0   0   0
Rio Rancho......................  95  64  98  65 /   0   0   0   0
Socorro......................... 100  66 102  66 /   5   5   0   0
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  87  59  90  60 /   0   0   0   0
Tijeras.........................  91  60  94  62 /   0   0   0   0
Edgewood........................  90  55  93  56 /   0   0   0   0
Moriarty/Estancia...............  90  50  93  52 /   0   0   0   0
Clines Corners..................  86  55  88  58 /   0   0   0   0
Mountainair.....................  89  57  92  58 /   0   0   0   0
Gran Quivira....................  89  57  92  58 /   0   0   0   0
Carrizozo.......................  93  63  96  65 /   5   0   5   0
Ruidoso.........................  86  60  89  62 /  20   5  10   0
Capulin.........................  83  52  87  55 /  20   5  10   5
Raton...........................  87  50  91  53 /  10   5   5   0
Springer........................  89  50  92  53 /  10   0   5   0
Las Vegas.......................  87  51  89  54 /   5   0   0   0
Clayton.........................  91  59  93  61 /  20  10   5  10
Roy.............................  88  55  91  57 /  10   5   5   5
Conchas.........................  96  61  99  63 /  10   5   0   5
Santa Rosa......................  92  60  95  60 /  10   5   0   0
Tucumcari.......................  95  62  98  65 /  20  10   0   5
Clovis..........................  94  64  96  66 /  20  20   5  10
Portales........................  96  63  98  65 /  20  20   5  10
Fort Sumner.....................  96  62  99  64 /  20  10   5   5
Roswell......................... 101  67 103  70 /  20   5   5   0
Picacho.........................  94  61  96  63 /  20   0  10   0
Elk.............................  92  59  95  60 /  20   5  10   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...42
LONG TERM....25
AVIATION...42