Carlsbad, New Mexico 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

569
FXUS64 KMAF 282305
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
605 PM CDT Sun Jun 28 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 603 PM CDT Sun Jun 28 2026

- Hazardous heat continues along the Rio Grande, with highs near
  110 degrees. Be sure to drink plenty of fluids and take
  frequent breaks in the shade if outdoors!

- Isolated to scattered storm chances (10-30%) for portions of the
  Permian Basin, southeast New Mexico, Trans Pecos, and the higher
  terrain this afternoon and evening. Damaging winds are the
  primary hazard with the strongest storms.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Monday night)
Issued at 141 PM CDT Sun Jun 28 2026

Isolated storms will develop over the next few hours with the focus
mainly over the Davis Mountains and Upper Trans Pecos. Much like the
last few days, a storm or two will be capable of producing damaging
winds and small hail. Any afternoon activity will decay overnight
with temperatures only cooling into the 70s as steady southerly
breezes continue. Temperatures on Monday will be 3-5 degrees cooler
compared to today as an upper level low parks itself over the
western US. Southwesterly flow in the upper levels brings in more
moisture, increasing rain chances across the southern and central
portions of the CWA. Rain amounts will vary widely, but highest
amounts will be around an inch, mainly across the Davis Mountains
and portions of Big Bend. Portions of the Permian Basin may not see
any rain as the best chances remain in the western half of the
basin. Overnight lows for many will be about the same in the low to
mid 70s, but the higher elevations may enjoy rain cooled 60s.

-Stickney

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 141 PM CDT Sun Jun 28 2026

The triple digit heat for many locations will come to an end on
Tuesday, thanks to the upper ridge of high pressure shifting
eastward into the Ohio Valley and southeast US. Simultaneously, an
upper-level storm system skirts across the Great Basin, supplying
weak south to southwesterly flow aloft leading to extra cloud cover
and moisture. Surface troughing along with upslope flow yields
another day of isolated to scattered storms with the highest
coverage being in the Davis Mountains. High temperatures decrease to
near normal for late June standards in the upper 80s to upper 90s
for most locations. A similar weather day is in store on Wednesday
as the upper-level storm system inches eastward. As a result,
similar high temperatures and rain/storm chances are forecast.
Multiple days of heavy rainfall over the same areas (mainly across
higher terrain) will pose a threat of localized flash flooding.

Thursday into Independence Day Weekend, cluster analysis indicate a
ridge of high pressure building back into the region. This will lead
to drier conditions and warmer temperatures ranging from the low to
upper 90s, with some locations hitting the triple digits. At this
time, temperatures are not expected to be as hot compared to this
past week due to guidance suggesting the ridge will be weaker.
Cannot rule out isolated thunderstorms each afternoon and evening
due to persistent surface troughing, upslope flow, and any
disturbances within the flow aloft.

Lamberson

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 603 PM CDT Sun Jun 28 2026

VFR conditions outside of storms, with MVFR or lower conditions
in storms. Highest chance of storms for terminals over the Upper
Trans Pecos into Stockton Plateau from beginning of period into
02Z-04Z this evening. Terminals impacted by stronger storms may
experience damaging winds, heavy rainfall, frequent lightning, and
hail. Southerly winds increase across central and eastern Permian
Basin into Stockton Plateau 01Z-06Z this evening, with gusts
above 20 knots for terminals, before decreasing below 20 knots
07Z-11Z early tomorrow morning. An increasing chance of storms
again develops 19Z into the end of the period tomorrow afternoon,
with highest chances again for terminals on the Upper Trans Pecos
into Stockton Plateau.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               76 100  75  97 /   0   0  20   0
Carlsbad                 75  99  72  98 /  10  10  10  20
Dryden                   76 100  75  97 /   0  10  20  10
Fort Stockton            75  97  72  93 /  10  60  20  40
Guadalupe Pass           71  89  68  88 /  10  10  10  10
Hobbs                    73  97  70  94 /  10  30   0  30
Marfa                    64  90  61  87 /  30  50  60  70
Midland Intl Airport     76  98  74  94 /   0  10  30  10
Odessa                   76  97  74  93 /   0  20  20  20
Wink                     76 100  73  96 /  20  30  10  30

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...94