Carlsbad, New Mexico 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

976
FXUS64 KMAF 131129
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
629 AM CDT Wed Aug 13 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 628 AM CDT Wed Aug 13 2025

- Near normal temperatures and low (20-40%) storm chances continue
  today for areas west of the Pecos River Valley. A storm or two
  may become strong with heavy rain, gusty winds, and frequent
  lightning.

- Temperatures begin to climb back above normal Thursday and
  Friday. Thunderstorms stay largely confined west of the Pecos
  River valley late this work week heading into the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 318 AM CDT Wed Aug 13 2025

Current satellite and latest RAP analysis has an upper-level
shortwave trough extending from the Upper Midwest to west-central
Texas. An upper-level ridge of high pressure hovers over the Desert
Southwest. This feature is expected to creep eastward today,
allowing more subsidence and less moisture depth in the atmosphere.
The forcing from the shortwave trough and the ridge still being west
of the area will help assist in isolated to scattered thunderstorm
development this afternoon and evening. The greatest chance (20-40%)
in seeing these storms are going to be along and south of the
Interstate 10 corridor. A few storms may become strong as forecast
soundings continue to have "inverted-V" profiles and sufficient
DCAPE values hinting at a brief, strong downburst threat. Heavy
rainfall and frequent lightning can also be expected to be the
other primary threats for the strongest storms. High temperatures
are forecasted to be slightly warmer today reaching the upper 80s
to upper 90s regionwide. A few locations along the Trans Pecos,
Rio Grande, and Presidio valleys look to hit over the century
mark.

Thursday, the ridge of high pressure moves over the region,
providing warmer temperatures and drier conditions. High
temperatures are expected to hit the 90s to lower 100s for most
locations. There still exists a low (10-30%) chance of isolated
storms near and over the higher terrain Thursday afternoon into the
early evening hours. This is thanks to inverted surface troughing
spanning across the southern half of Texas, promoting easterly to
southeasterly upslope winds to aid in shower and thunderstorm
development. Primary hazards with these storms remain the same
compared with Wednesday`s storms, though parameters suggest these
storms will be more tame.

Lamberson

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 318 AM CDT Wed Aug 13 2025

Upper-level ridging is expected to continue further eastward into
the Central Plains by Friday. West Texas and southeast New Mexico
will still be influenced by this feature keeping temperatures
slightly above normal (mid 90s to low 100s). By the weekend,
guidance is in agreement with the ridge advancing more eastward
where the region will be on the western periphery of the ridge. As a
result, precipitation chances increase across much of the region
with slightly cooler temperatures in store Saturday through early
next week. Areas primarily west of the Pecos River valley will
have the greatest chance (30-50%) in precipitation each afternoon
and evening during this timeframe.

Lamberson

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 628 AM CDT Wed Aug 13 2025

VFR conditions and light winds continue the next 24 hours.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               95  73  99  75 /  10   0   0   0
Carlsbad                 96  70  99  72 /  10  10  10   0
Dryden                   99  73 100  75 /  10  10  10  10
Fort Stockton            97  72  99  74 /  20  10  10  10
Guadalupe Pass           88  68  91  70 /  10  10  10  10
Hobbs                    93  69  97  71 /  10  10   0   0
Marfa                    88  61  89  63 /  30  10  30  10
Midland Intl Airport     95  73  98  75 /  10  10  10   0
Odessa                   94  73  98  75 /  10  10  10   0
Wink                     96  72  99  73 /  10  10  10   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...10