Carlsbad, New Mexico 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

912
FXUS64 KMAF 082333
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
633 PM CDT Tue Oct 8 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Wednesday night)
Issued at 113 PM CDT Tue Oct 8 2024

Deterministic and ensemble guidance show upper ridging over the
western CONUS remains in place but with core of ridging expanding
east into tomorrow. WPC analysis depicts surface troughing
meandering over SE NM into W TX as a low pressure system near the
TX/OK panhandle to the north and associated nearly meridional
stationary front extending from west-central OK into SE TX setup
today into tomorrow. All of this means we can expect southerly
winds today into tomorrow night, with warmer temperatures tomorrow
as the core of ridging develops closer to the area. Highs today
rising into the 80s, 90s along the Pecos River, over easternmost
Permian Basin, and near Rio Grande with 70s in highest elevations
of SE NM and W TX are forecast, 8 to 10 degrees above normal with
dew point temperatures in the 30s westernmost regions, 40s and 50s
east keeping apparent temperatures in the 80s for most places.
Lows tonight fall into the 50s and 60s, around 8 to 10 degrees
above average as well. Highs tomorrow in the 90s most regions, 80s
over Lea County and most of W TX outside of the Rio Grande
basins, and near triple digit right along the Big Bend are
forecast, around 10 to 12 degrees above normal for this time of
year. Lows Wednesday night will fall to similar levels as tonight
under mostly clear skies. No rain is anticipated as large scale
subsidence provided by the upper ridging and quiet surface pattern
prevail.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 113 PM CDT Tue Oct 8 2024

A broad and weak upper level ridge over the Desert Southwest will
control weather over West Texas and eastern New Mexico for much of
the extended period. A few minor disturbances moving through the
high will not have any effect on surface sensible weather as above
normal temperatures and no rainfall are expected to continue. The
forecast has highs ranging from the mid 80s to lower 90s and lows
in the mid 50s to lower 60s through the weekend.

For those eager for fall-like weather, then there may be some hope
for early next week. Models are beginning to show an amplification
in the pattern with a western U.S. ridge and a deep low pressure
system developing over the Great Lakes. The jet stream has been
well to the north the past couple of weeks keeping cold air locked
away in Canada, but such a deep low pressure system could send
the jet stream into the Mississippi River Valley and cool air
south into our area. This is just beyond the current forecast
period but certainly worth watching the next week.

Hennig

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 632 PM CDT Tue Oct 8 2024

VFR conditions will continue the next 24 hours. Winds will vary
between the southwest and southeast, though sustained speeds will
remain around 10kt or less.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               60  93  63  94 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                 57  91  58  92 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                   63  92  63  94 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton            60  93  63  94 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass           60  82  61  85 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                    59  89  58  92 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                    54  85  53  86 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport     61  91  63  93 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                   62  90  64  92 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                     60  93  60  95 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...94
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...84