Carlsbad, New Mexico 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

843
FXUS64 KMAF 021930
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
230 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 201 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025

- Strong winds, blowing dust, and critical fire weather conditions
  will impact portions of west and southwest Texas today.

- Rain chances increase late this week and into the weekend. The
  best chances of measurable rainfall are over southeast New
  Mexico/the Permian Basin during the Friday night through
  Saturday afternoon timeframe.

- Freezing temperatures are possible across much of the area
  Sunday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Thursday night)
Issued at 201 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025

Current satellite imagery and surface observations show a cold
front moving through central Texas. A longwave mid-level trough
also continues to progress across the western half of the US and
will be prevalent to our west throughout the short-term period.
Tonight, shortwave troughing in the entrance region of the
longwave system translates across West Texas. The shortwave
trough will provide some lift and very limited low-level moisture
across the northeastern Permian Basin late tonight into early
tomorrow morning. Guidance has lackadaisical surface dewpoints
during this timeframe spanning from the upper 30s to lower 40s
being the highest amounts across Mitchell and Scurry counties due
to the dryline situated further to the east. High resolution
deterministic and HREF guidance depicts `inverted V`forecast
sounding for these areas. These type of soundings are associated
with a damaging wind threat if a storm does occur. Storms will be
inhibited from developing given the limited low- level moisture
along with little to no instability. Low (25-30%) rain chances
with a rumble of thunder or two are anticipated for the same areas
from 4-7am. Low temperatures tomorrow morning are forecasted to
generally range in the mid 40s to upper 50s.

Tomorrow, the mid-level trough continues to approach the region.
Dry conditions and near normal temperatures reaching the mid 60s
to lower 80s regionwide are expected throughout the day, thanks to
dry slotting. Rain chances are back heading into Thursday night
as another shortwave trough pushes a cold front into the region.
The cold front will provide lift and pull moisture further
westward. Areas across the eastern Permian Basin are anticipated
to have the greater chance of seeing rain showers especially after
midnight as the cold front comes through. Guidance is fairly
uncertain with these amounts ranging from 0.05-0.5" from least-
case scenario to most-case scenario, while areas further west are
expected to receive less rainfall (0.01-0.15") or no rainfall at
all. Low temperatures are forecasted to slightly dip a couple of
degrees cooler generally spanning from the lower 40s to mid 50s
Friday morning.

Lamberson

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 201 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025

Models are getting into better agreement for a rain "event"
coming up to end the week and into the weekend. The main questions
remain where exactly the rain will fall and how much. Friday
morning it appears the best rain chances will be terrain aided
convection in southeastern New Mexico as well as storms developing
eastern Permian Basin just west of an old stationary front over
the Big Country of Texas. Southwesterly flow aloft favors storm
training in a SW-NE direction meaning some areas will get good
rainfall while others get none. The rain should diminish for a
short time early Friday afternoon before increasing again Friday
evening in SE NM, the western PB, and upper Trans Pecos as the
upper low gets nearer to the CWA. Upper flow aloft becomes more
westerly Friday night helping push the showers and storms farther
east and giving the central PB and lower Trans Pecos better rain
chances. It is by this time that the best chance for good
(0.25"-0.50" or more) widespread rainfall amounts will occur.

The surface winds are chaotic during this time. As stated
earlier, the front that moved through the area last night hangs up
to our east and becomes stationary providing a light continuing
northerly or easterly flow through Saturday. This along with rain
cooled temperatures gives the impression of a frontal passage, but
we will not actually get a cold front through until during the day
on Saturday. Rain is expected to diminish Saturday morning before
increasing again as lift from behind the cold front is enhanced
by the upper low which by now will be overhead. However while rain
chances increase behind the cold front, dewpoints will be
dropping as a colder and drier airmass moves into West Texas and
eastern New Mexico meaning rainfall amounts will be lighter. So
while the likely rainfall chances in the forecast for Saturday on
the surface appear nice, in all likelihood it will be a light
post frontal rain or possibly even drizzle that will be measured
in a few tenths. Still, we will take anything we can get.

Highs behind the cold front on Saturday will only be in the 40s
and 50s, mainly north of I-10, and in the 60s and 70s farther
south. After frontal passage the entire area will be in the 50s
and 60s on Sunday. Lows Sunday morning may be the last shot at
freezing temperatures for the season with most of the area
expected to drop below freezing. Sensitive plants will need
protection from these temperatures but road conditions should be
fine since ground temperatures are high enough that slick roads
should not be a problem. Even in northern Lea County where a rain
and snow mix is possible, road conditions are not expected to be a
problem.

The upper low moves east early next week leaving us under a
drier, northwesterly upper level flow. Temperatures climb back up
to near normal by Wednesday with highs reaching the 70s to lower
80s.

Hennig

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1245 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025

VFR conditions prevail at most terminals other than CNM this
afternoon, thanks to BLDU. Breezy to strong westerly winds are
expected this afternoon before decreasing near sunset and shifting
northerly tonight.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 201 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025

Windy and dry conditions continue this afternoon in portions of
the Big Bend where a Red Flag Warning remains in effect. The fire
weather threat diminishes after sunset and remains low through the
weekend as cooler temperatures and more importantly, increasing
rain chances add badly needed moisture. There will be
thunderstorms so a threat for dry lightning exists until Sunday
when dry conditions return.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               54  76  50  63 /  30  10  60  50
Carlsbad                 50  69  46  58 /  10  10  40  70
Dryden                   61  88  58  81 /  10   0  40  20
Fort Stockton            54  81  53  69 /  10  10  40  40
Guadalupe Pass           46  60  43  52 /   0  10  30  60
Hobbs                    50  70  45  58 /  10  10  50  70
Marfa                    45  75  46  68 /   0  10  10  50
Midland Intl Airport     54  76  51  63 /  20  10  50  30
Odessa                   54  75  51  63 /  10  10  50  30
Wink                     53  76  50  64 /  10  10  40  60

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Wind Warning until 1 AM CDT /midnight MDT/ Thursday for
     Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware
     Mountains.

     Blowing Dust Advisory until 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ this evening for
     Central Brewster-Chinati Mountains-Chisos Basin-Davis
     Mountains-Davis Mountains Foothills-Eastern Culberson-
     Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware
     Mountains-Marfa Plateau-Presidio Valley-Van Horn and
     Highway 54 Corridor.

     Red Flag Warning until 10 PM CDT this evening for Central
     Brewster-Chinati Mountains-Chisos Basin-Davis Mountains-
     Lower Brewster County-Marfa Plateau-Presidio Valley-Van
     Horn and Highway 54 Corridor.

     Wind Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for Central Brewster-
     Chinati Mountains-Chisos Basin-Davis Mountains-Davis
     Mountains Foothills-Eastern Culberson-Marfa Plateau-
     Presidio Valley-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor.

NM...High Wind Warning until midnight MDT tonight for Guadalupe
     Mountains of Eddy County.

     Blowing Dust Advisory until 8 PM MDT this evening for Guadalupe
     Mountains of Eddy County.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...11