Artesia, New Mexico 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

755
FXUS64 KMAF 130414
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1014 PM CST Tue Nov 12 2024

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1010 PM CST Tue Nov 12 2024

 - A cold front late tonight will result in cooler temperatures
   Wednesday.

 - Rain returns to the forecast Sunday and Monday.

 - Another cold front late Monday will knock temperatures back
   down through mid next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Wednesday night)
Issued at 220 PM CST Tue Nov 12 2024

An upper-level disturbance will drop a dry cold front into the area
late tonight into Wednesday morning. Out ahead of this system, a few
isolated showers and thunderstorms may try to develop across the far
northern parts of Scurry and Borden counties early tonight. However,
confidence in this occurring is rather low (10% probability), as
only a couple of the more aggressive models hint at storm
development that far south.

Behind the front will come clear skies, cooler temperatures, and
winds out of the north for Wednesday. The NBM Mean (most likely)
solution indicates that highs in the upper 60s to low 70s will be
commonplace tomorrow afternoon (which is right around normal for
this time of year). Expect lows tonight to be in the 40s across the
majority of the area, but the arrival of the colder air tomorrow
morning will keep lows in the upper 30s to low 40s Wednesday night.

Sprang

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 220 PM CST Tue Nov 12 2024

We`ll see brief ridging over the area Thursday, ahead of our next
upper-level trough that looks to dig into the Desert Southwest late
this week. As a result, West Texas and southeastern New Mexico will
be under southwest flow aloft with some increasing thicknesses
promoting a short-term warming trend through Saturday. Saturday
looks to be the warmest day for this forecast package, with highs
generally in the upper 70s to low 80s for most locations. As the
aforementioned upper trough approaches this weekend, a surface low
will strengthen lee of the Rockies, increasing southerly winds at
the surface across the forecast area. As a result, we`ll see
increasing moisture and clouds by Sunday and a return of rain
chances to the region Sunday evening and large-scale lift arrives
ahead of the upper trough. At this time, higher probabilities
(40- 50%) for showers will reside across southeastern New Mexico
and northern portions of the Permian Basin. Monday, showers push
eastward as a pacific cold front moves through the area. Could see
some breezy conditions behind the front through the afternoon
hours Monday with cooler temperatures expected. The next front
will arrive sometime Tuesday night, likely holding cooler
temperatures in place a bit longer.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1010 PM CST Tue Nov 12 2024

VFR conditions will persist through 14/06Z at all terminals. A
wind shift to the northwest will progress from west to east by
13/08-09Z. Gusty northerly to northwesterly winds are expected
during the late morning into the mid afternoon hours, with winds
laying down around 13/21Z and decreasing to below 11 knots. Look
for VFR conditions to continue beyond 14/06Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               48  69  40  72 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                 41  67  36  74 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                   56  78  46  74 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton            46  71  41  80 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass           41  63  42  68 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                    43  66  38  70 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                    41  71  37  73 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport     46  69  41  72 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                   47  69  41  72 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                     43  71  37  75 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....55
AVIATION...70