Artesia, New Mexico 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

719
FXUS64 KMAF 240703
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
103 AM CST Wed Dec 24 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 101 AM CST Wed Dec 24 2025

- Patchy dense fog is expected this morning across portions of the
  Permian Basin, far southeast New Mexico, Low Rolling Plains, and
  Stockton Plateau. Drive with caution if you encounter fog!

- Record warm high and low temperatures for Christmas Eve,
  Christmas Day, and Christmas Night. No rain chances through
  early weekend.

- A shift in the atmospheric pattern late weekend into early next
  week delivers cooler than average temperatures, increased
  clouds, and precipitation chances, although specifics on
  precipitation amounts, timing, and type remain uncertain.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 101 AM CST Wed Dec 24 2025

Current satellite imagery and observations show a plume of low-
level moisture over portions of west Texas and far southeast New
Mexico. This plume of moisture will set up another foggy morning
across the Permian Basin, Low Rolling Plains, far southeast New
Mexico, and Stockton Plateau. The HREF has medium to high (60-90%)
probabilities of dense fog (visibilities below 0.5 mile) over
these areas beginning at 4 AM CST. Drive with caution if
encountering fog this morning! By 9-10am CST, fog will begin to
cease.

Well above normal temperatures continue today as upper-level
ridging remains in place over the region. Shortwave impulses
within the flow of the upper ridge will aid in the development of
high clouds across portions of west Texas and southeast New
Mexico. Increased cloud cover will cool high temperatures a degree
or two compared with yesterday (highs in mid 70s and low 80s).
Tonight, the cloud cover spreads eastward as the upper-level ridge
axis moves east of the area. Return flow keeps low-level moisture
across west Texas and far southeast New Mexico. This will provide
another shot of patchy dense fog and warm overnight lows. High
resolution guidance has medium to high (50-80%) confidence in
dense fog forming early Christmas morning over the Permian Basin,
far southeast New Mexico, and Stockton Plateau. As of now, this
event seems to be less widespread compared with what is expected
this morning. This is due to stronger southwesterly winds
anticipated which would mitigate fog development. Near record-
breaking lows are forecast to be in the mid 40s to mid 50s. The
near record-breaking temperature trend continues Christmas
afternoon as highs are forecast to be in the mid 70s and low 80s.
If the forecasted high of 80 degrees holds, this could be
Midland`s warmest Christmas on record. The current record holder
is 78 degrees, set in 2021. Christmas night will be warm with lows
staying in the mid 40s and mid 50s for most locations.

Lamberson

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 101 AM CST Wed Dec 24 2025

Above average temperatures before a cooldown late weekend into
early next week, then moderating temperatures. Precipitation
possible but amounts, timing, type, and chances still uncertain.
That continues to be the forecast into next week. Christmas Night
this year may be no exception to the record warmth of Christmas
Eve and Christmas Day. Persistent, pronounced mid to upper ridging
over the Southern Great Plains into Southeast US and accompanying
large scale sinking motion and associated warming and
west/southwest downsloping winds will continue to deliver
anomalously warm temperatures. NAEFS ensembles are running at
least 2 to 4 standard deviations above normal for both height of
the atmospheric column and temperature, indicative of a warmer
than normal air mass. Extreme Forecast Index also surges to 0.7 to
0.9 for much of the area, indicative of very unusually warm
temperatures. Higher Shift of Tails over eastern parts of the
forecast area where ridging is more amplified and dew point
temperatures rise into the mid 40s to mid 50s F and limit
overnight cooling suggest most of the record warm low temperatures
may be broken there on Christmas night. Otherwise, dew point
temperatures in the mid 30s F western higher terrain into
Culberson County and westernmost and northern SE NM plains into
northwest Permian Basin, upper 30s to lower 40s F, and upper 40s
to lower 50s F easternmost parts of the area will not scale with
expected diurnal ranges, since hours and strength of solar angle
above the horizon remain as we remain close to (but are now moving
away from) winter solstice. Lows therefore settle into the mid
40s to mid 50s F range, with highs Friday once more warming into
the upper 70s to mid 80s F, upper 60s to lower 70s F higher
elevations, and upper 80s to lower 90s F Rio Grande basins - still
a few degrees higher than Christmas as ridging holds and
strengthens. Accordingly, not much change in lows expected Friday
night compared to Christmas Night. Ridging weakens but still holds
Saturday, so high temperatures decrease by a few degrees, while
low temperatures again don`t change much from previous night.

However, a pattern change remains in the cards. Most
deterministic and ensemble models are now depicting a split flow
pattern with troughing in the mid to upper tropospheric air over
northern Rockies into northern Great Plains developing east, and
troughing over Great Basin retrograding southwest but not
completely closing off, allowing some moisture and energy to
advect east. Most deterministic and ensemble models are also now
showing a later cold front passage for Sunday than previous runs,
and as a result highs Sunday have increased 5 to 10 degrees from
previous runs. This has meant forecasts now showing highs only
struggling to reach above 60F for the westernmost and northernmost
SE NM plains, with lower to mid 60s F Marfa Plateau into most of
Permian Basin, and upper 60s to 70s F elsewhere apart from upper
70s to lower 80s F along the Rio Grande. Lows near to below
freezing north of Rio Grande basins and in mid 30s to lower 40s F
central Presidio, Brewster Counties into Terrell County and
Stockton Plateau, and lower to mid 40s F southern Rio Grande
basins are only lower by a few degrees from previous runs, despite
dew point temperatures forecast to fall into the teens to mid 20s
F range rather than the mid 20s to lower 30s F range as
previously indicated. The the still expected increase in low
clouds behind the cold front limit overnight cooling despite a
decreasing trend in forecast boundary layer moisture. The later
passage of the cold front Sunday has also served to lower
forecasted highs Monday at least 10 degrees from previous runs,
with highs now struggling to reach above 50s F for much of the
area apart from struggling to reach 60s F from Presidio Valley
into Big Bend. Accompanying temperatures this cold comes the
chance for precipitation, but uncertainty on specifics remains
high. Most likely spots for accumulations continue to be over the
northwestern Guadalupes into Sacramento Foothills, and the window
for most likely precipitation chances has now began to appear in
the Sunday night to Monday afternoon time frame. We will continue
to monitor trends in the forecast as this cold wave draws nearer.
Lows Monday night fall even farther, into the mid 20s to lower 30s
F range except for lower to mid 30s F Presidio Valley into Big
Bend. If this forecast holds, freeze watches/warnings may need to
be issued in later forecast shifts for lower lying regions of the
Rio Grande basins and Terrell County that have not yet experienced
their first freeze this winter. Highs slowly recover by 5 to 10
degrees Tuesday as ridging begins to build back over the Desert SW
and the weather dries out again, but past Monday the forecast is
too uncertain to communicate expected temperature ranges at this
time.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1127 PM CST Tue Dec 23 2025

VFR conditions continue until late tonight. IFR to LIFR CIGs and
VIS are expected by 10-11Z as fog develops at MAF, INK, and HOB.
Fog is anticipated to prevail until 16Z at these terminals. There
is a low (20-30%) chance in fog developing at PEQ from 12-15Z this
morning. Given low confidence, FG was not implemented in the TAF,
but amendments may be needed later on. By 17Z, VFR conditions are
expected as the fog lifts. Light southerly to southeasterly winds
will prevail through the period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               76  55  80  50 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                 76  46  80  49 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                   77  53  81  54 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton            82  51  82  53 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass           70  50  70  50 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                    76  46  79  47 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                    76  40  77  42 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport     76  54  79  52 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                   75  53  79  52 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                     75  45  80  47 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CST this morning for Andrews-
     Borden-Crane-Dawson-Ector-Gaines-Glasscock-Howard-Martin-
     Midland-Mitchell-Reagan-Scurry-Upton-Winkler.

NM...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM MST this morning for Central Lea-
     Northern Lea-Southern Lea.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....94
AVIATION...11